Euro 2020 betting tips: England v Scotland best bets and preview
The highlight of Friday's action sees England take on Scotland at Wembley and Tom Carnduff has picked out two best bets.
Euro 2020 betting tips: England v Scotland
1pt Kalvin Phillips to score anytime at 10/1 (Sky Bet)
1pt Mason Mount to have 1+ assists at 7/2 (Betfair)
Scotland's hopes of reaching the Euro 2020 knockout stages are already hanging by a thread after a 2-0 defeat to Czech Republic in their first game. That contest was crucial for their chances of progressing but now they need to find a way to not only beat Croatia or England, but to do so in a way that boosts their goal difference to above the 0 mark.
Even then, that may not be enough to progress as a third-placed team and England are heavily fancied for victory here. The positive for Scotland is that their xGF figure was the fifth-highest from matchday one - 2.29 suggests that they should have had more in that defeat.
The issue is that they now come up against two quality sides for the remainder of the group and England limited Croatia, their toughest test at this stage, to an xG figure of 0.54 in that 1-0 win - their own figure was nearly treble that at 1.50. It's difficult to make a serious argument for taking the 10/1 on a Scotland win or the 9/2 available for the points to be shared.
Kick-off time: 20:00 BST, Friday
TV channel: ITV
Venue: Wembley Stadium - London, England
England 3/10 | Draw 4/1 | Scotland 10/1
A win for England will put them in an incredibly strong position to top Group D going into that final game against Czech Republic. Scotland's hopes will be ended with anything less than victory and there may be some acceptance that a group stage exit is now likely. It's a game where England may also justify their -1 handicap price.
The interesting thing from an England perspective is what team Gareth Southgate will opt to go with. He'll want to keep things fresh but they performed really well against Croatia and it wouldn't be right to drop anyone given the outcome.
In Alex Keble's Tactics Talk piece for matchday two, he highlights the importance of the midfield and their role in creating England opportunities here and that does mean there is serious value in the goalscorer market.
He put in a man of the match performance against Croatia, got the assist on Raheem Sterling's winner and I love the 8/1 price available on KALVIN PHILLIPS TO SCORE ANYTIME on Friday night. It would be incredibly harsh to drop him to the bench on the back of that performance and he could have easily had a goal himself given his attacking positions.
His beautifully struck shot from outside the area was saved early on but it is the positioning that has me really interested in this bet. While he operates as the holding midfielder for Leeds, rarely venturing forward enough to consistently score goals, Declan Rice picking up that role against Croatia saw him allowed to run forward and link the attack more.
When England were attacking, we would often see Phillips taking up a position in the opposition box. It was almost like he was playing as a striker at times and Harry Kane's preference to drop deep may have aided that. If the ball falls to him in that part of the pitch, there is a great chance that Phillips will be able to find the back of the net.
It wouldn't be right to switch him away from that role for this game given that showing against Croatia - even if Jordan Henderson is benched again in favour of the current trio. If Phillips gets a regular run in that position throughout the tournament, we should expect to see a goal on his tally and this game looks a great opportunity to get one.
Staying with England in the betting, the 7/2 available with Betfair on MASON MOUNT TO HAVE 1+ ASSISTS appears to be too generous. His ability from open play contributes plenty in attack but he did also take England's one and only corner in the win over Croatia - that gives further hope to an assist if the Three Lions can rack up this count on Friday.
He finished the first game with an Expected Assists figure of 0.60 while his tally at the conclusion of the Premier League season with Chelsea was 10.04. With England expected to score at least a couple, and prices short in the goalscorer market, targeting the assists is where the value can be found.
Raheem Sterling is as short as evens for an assist in places, while Jack Grealish is 6/5 and Jadon Sancho is 13/8 - both of those players may not even start if Southgate sticks to the same eleven that beat Croatia. I'd expect Mount to be priced up in the same area.
To get 7/2 for an assist in this game is too big and I can't really get on board with the implied probability of just 22.2% given the fixture. We can expect 7/2 for this selection later in the tournament but in what should be, on paper at least, England's 'easiest' game of the tournament, it's just too good to turn down.
England v Scotland best bets and score prediction
- 1pt Kalvin Phillips to score anytime at 10/1 (Sky Bet)
- 1pt Mason Mount to have 1+ assists at 7/2 (Betfair)
Score prediction: England 2-0 Scotland (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Odds correct at 1300 BST (16/06/21)
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