Football betting tips: Euro 2024
1.5pts England win to nil at evens (General)
1.5pts Jude Bellingham 1+ shot on target at evens (bet365)
1.5pts Jude Bellingham 2+ tackles at evens (bet365)
1pt Jude Bellingham 3+ shots at 11/4 (bet365)
BuildABet @ 22/1
- England to win
- Both teams to score - no
- Jude Bellingham 2+ shots on target
- Bellingham 3+ tackles
- Bellingham 3+ shots
"How shit were England against Serbia and Denmark? Negative Southgate - he’s holding us back! Why won’t he just go for it? Sack him now! It worked for Ivory Coast at AFCON!"
If you read my preview of England against Denmark, I have indeed copy and pasted exactly the same opening line.
To say the reaction to that result has been a little over the top would be an understatement. Gareth Southgate's side are top of Group C on four points, almost guaranteed a place in the knockouts already and able to secure top spot with victory over Slovenia.
Were England shit against Denmark? Yes. Has it warranted a meltdown on a national scale? No.
But by now we really should have learned to expect these results, performances and the subsequent hyperbolic reaction. England's (relative) tournament success in the modern era has tended to follow the same pattern; Italia 90, Euro 96, Euro 2020 and even to a lesser degree the 2018 World Cup started in pretty abject fashion.
Our tendency to overreact as a nation is well summed up by little mention of the fact Denmark were England's semi-final opponents three years ago, a match that after 90 minutes, quite unhelpfully for the current narrative, also finished 1-1.
And as is also often the case, we tend to look towards one player to drag the Three Lions off the floor, which I expect to happen again on Tuesday night.
What are the best bets?
While there were groans of discontent at England's underwhelming display in their opening game, much of it was covered up by them escaping with three points and the dominant display of JUDE BELLINGHAM.
Neither of those things happened against Denmark, and with Southgate and several other players coming under criticism in the aftermath, Bellingham avoided scrutiny.
He was, though, utterly anonymous.
Having been talked about as Player of Tournament elect following matchday one, Bellingham was barely talked about after matchday two.
The parallels with his, and England's, performance in defeat by Brazil earlier this year were striking, with the only difference being the Danes didn't boot him off the pitch.
In March he came out fighting against Belgium a few days later with an all-action display, scoring a stoppage-time equaliser, and was equally pugnacious post-match:
"I liked it (the criticism and the pressure) because I know the rubbish we would have got if we lost two games on the bounce. These are two games that are going to stand us in good stead going into the Euros. I know people will be negative."
I struggle to imagine him producing back-to-back anonymous performances, and expect the same kind of reaction against Slovenia.
The even money about him to have just 1+ SHOT ON TARGET feels hugely generous, as does the same price for him to make 2+ TACKLES.
- CLICK HERE to back Bellingham 1+ shot on target with Sky Bet
- CLICK HERE to back Bellingham 2+ tackles with Sky Bet
Both were achieved in victory over Serbia, and the draw against Belgium.
- Shots on target: 2+ at 11/2 (bet365)
- Shots: 2+ at 19/20, 3+ at 11/4, 4+ at 8/1, 5+ at 18/1 (all bet365), 6+ at 30/1 (Paddy Power/Betfair)
- Tackles: 2+ at evens (bet365), 3+ at 14/5 (William Hill)
- Fouls committed: 2+ at 2/1 (bet365)
- Fouls won: 3+ at 17/10 (Paddy Power)
Rather than leave you to trawl markets, here's the full shebang of what I found in case you'd prefer to back other selections.
There are some enormous prices for him to fire off multiple attempts on goal, but given the circumstances it's unlikely he will play with total abandon unless England are losing.
The highest I would recommend going would be 3+ SHOTS at 11/4.
We're not even asking him to register half the number of attempts (7) he had when playing like a man possessed against Belgium.
What also helps with these selections is although Slovenia have been plucky, and were seconds from beating Serbia, they have been a touch fortunate according to the data, conceding just twice from an expected goals (xG) total of 3.3.
England's defence underrated
In the rush to condemn England's shortcomings, there has been little in the way of credit for the team's well functioning defence.
Only Spain and France conceded fewer than their one goal across MD1 and MD2, while the 1.0 expected goals against (xGA) is the least any team allowed.
The even money about ENGLAND WIN TO NIL is a bet worth taking.
Other than at the 2018 World Cup, when playing a much-changed team against Belgium and arguably looking to manipulate themselves into the easier side of the draw, England have won their final group games under Southgate without conceding - 1-0 against Czechia and 3-0 against Wales.
They went into those matches in exactly the same position: four points after two matches and dealing with flak about how shit they are.
Team news
Conor Gallagher is favourite to replace Trent Alexander-Arnold in midfield for England, meanwhile Kieran Trippier is doubtful with a calf injury meaning Joe Gomez could come in at left-back with Luke Shaw still unavailable.
Anthony Gordon is pushing for a start, with Phil Foden under pressure to keep his place.
Slovenia have injury concerns for Jan Oblak, Timi Elšnik and Adam Gnezda Čerin, but they are all expected to be fit.
Predicted line-ups
England: Pickford; Walker, Stones, Guehi, Gomez; Gallagher, Rice, Bellingham; Saka, Kane, Gordon.
Slovenia: Oblak; Karničnik, Drkušić, Bijol, Janža; Stojanović, Elšnik, Gnezda Čerin, Mlakar; Šporar, Šeško.
Odds correct at 1600 BST (19/06/24)
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