England vs Malta betting tips, BuildABet, best bets and preview
- Michael Beardmore (@MickeyBeardmore) is +24pts in profit during the 2023/24 football season
Football betting tips: Euro 2024 qualifying
1pt Penalty to be scored in the match at 2/1 (William Hill)
1pt Teddy Teuma to be shown a card at 7/2 (Sky Bet)
With Euro 2024 qualification in the bag with two games to spare, England boss Gareth Southgate can relax a tad for the Three Lions' final two group fixtures but the matches are not entirely dead rubbers.
England need two victories to completely ensure they will be a top seed when the draw for next year's finals is made - and avoid the possibility of being landed in a group with another of the tournament favourites such as France or Spain.
Visitors Malta have lost all seven of their qualifying games - no surprise given Group C is a pretty strong pool also including defending champions Italy, a solid Ukraine side and a North Macedonia outfit who can be very capable on their day.
But the Maltese have rarely, if at all, been embarrassed - two 4-0 losses to England and Italy their heaviest defeats. Ukraine needed a penalty to beat them 1-0 in June and actually fell behind to Malta in last month's return before winning 3-1.
What are the best bets?
Southgate's men cruised to a 4-0 win over Malta in the reverse fixture in Ta'Qali when the England boss picked a pretty strong side featuring the likes of Harry Kane, Bukayo Saka and Declan Rice.
This is by far the easier of the two games England face this week, given Monday's hosts North Macedonia have held Italy and lost only narrowly to Ukraine during the qualifying campaign, so it could be one where Southgate opts to experiment.
If England go strong, then the -4 handicap is worth a look, priced 11/8 at time of writing, while Trent Alexander-Arnold looks a tad big at 11/2 to score anytime if he starts, given seven of his team-mates are odds-on to do so.
Such selection uncertainties always make tipping difficult so I'm steering away from the goalscorers and handicap markets as a result, although these can be ones for punters to revisit at the time of the teamsheet releases.
One bet I fancy regardless of who lines up, however, is A PENALTY TO BE SCORED IN THE MATCH at 2/1 with William Hill. England have already been awarded five spot-kicks in their six qualification games, scoring all five of them.
Two of those came in the reverse fixture in Malta, who also conceded spot-kicks in both their qualifiers with Ukraine. Against teams you might class as minnows, England have scored five penalties in their past six such meetings.
The visiting line-up is easier to predict than England's - and I like the 7/2 available with Sky Bet on one of their best players, midfielder TEDDY TEUMA, to be SHOWN A CARD.
The combative 30-year-old has collected three bookings in eight Ligue 1 starts for Reims this season, plus two cautions in five qualifiers for Malta and was into double figures for yellow cards with Belgian side Union St Gilloise last season.
BuildABet @ 33/1
- Malta 12+ fouls
- England -3 handicap
- Steve Borg 2+ fouls
- Teuma to be carded
Malta defender Steve Borg is averaging 1.3 fouls per game during the qualifiers and, at 35, should be caught out more than once by the pace and skill England's attackers possess.
The overmatched minnows have conceded 14 fouls in Ukraine, 12 in Italy and 13 in North Macedonia - and we can expect a similar number at Wembley.
Score prediction: England 5-0 Malta (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Team news
A number of withdrawals have hit Southgate's plans with Jude Bellingham, James Maddison, Levi Colwill and Callum Wilson all out injured, leading him to call up Cole Palmer, Rico Lewis and Ezri Konsa as replacements.
John Stones, Luke Shaw and Reece James are also absent, while Kalvin Phillips and Marcus Rashford joined up with the squad late for personal reasons but should be available.
Malta could hand Jamaica-born striker Kemar Reid a debut after he gained citizenship, while midfielder Teuma and Notts County striker Jodi Jones should be back in the XI after missing October's games injured.
Predicted line-ups
England: Johnstone; Walker, Guehi, Maguire, Trippier; Alexander-Arnold, Rice, Gallagher; Bowen, Watkins, Foden
Malta: Bonello; S Borg, J Borg, Pepe; Attard, Muscat, Guillaumier, Camenzuli; Teuma; Jones, Nwoko
Odds correct at 1100 GMT (16/11/23)
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