Football betting tips: El Clasico Supercopa de España final
2.5pts Kylian Mbappe to score anytime at 20/21 (bet365)
1.5pts Raphinha to score anytime at 6/4 (Sky Bet)
1pt Kylian Mbappe to score 2+ goals at 5/1 (Sky Bet)
0.5pt Raphinha to score 2+ goals at 17/2 (Sky Bet)
0.25pt Mbappe and Raphinha to score 2+ goals at 50/1 (Sky Bet)
- Note: All bets are 'normal time' (i.e. in 90 minutes/not extra-time and penalties) only
For the fourth straight season we get the luxury of an El Clasico for the Supercopa de España final, once again held in Saudi Arabia.
In the previous three, Barcelona have bragging rights by winning two, and the Catalonians will come into this one as firm favourites to win another.
That's because, not only did they have the easier of the semi-finals, beating Athletic Club 5-0 as opposed to a hard-fought 2-1 Real win against Madrid rivals Atletico, but Hansi Flick's side have Real's number at the moment, winning three of the last five.
Real Madrid did win the sole league meeting so far this season at the Bernabeu, but we will swerve the 1X2 market and focus elsewhere. What catches the eye is the sheer number of goals El Clasico has delivered of late.
All of the last 10 head-to-heads have gone over 2.5 goals, eight have seen both teams score, seven have seen over 3.5 goals and four have seen over 4.5 goals.
Unsurprisingly the bookies are aware of this and have priced the lines accordingly, with just 2/5 available for over 2.5 and 10/11 for over 3.5.
The three Supercopa meetings have been even more nuts, with results being 3-1, 4-1 and 5-2 for an average of 5.33 goals. Whether playing in a foreign country has anything to do with that remains to be seen.
Either way, with goals on the menu we have to chance goalscorers. First up is RAPHINHA, and we'll back him TO SCORE ANYTIME and TO SCORE 2+ GOALS at 6/4 and 17/2 respectively.
Since returning from injury, the Brazilian has picked up where he left off, scoring in six goals in his seven starts, including two braces. He's averaged 0.65 xG per 90 this season making his anytime price look massive, while he simply loves playing against Real Madrid.
He scored in three of the four meetings between the sides last season, firing five goals in total, a tally that featured two braces including one in this exact fixture, the Supercopa.
We have to also back Real's talisman KYLIAN MBAPPE TO SCORE ANYTIME at 20/21. It's an odds-on price but is still laced in value. The Frenchman has been injured so is touch-and-go to start, though the Madrid press are fully expecting him to lead the line for Los Blancos.
He's had a phenomenal season so far, scoring 30 goals in 27 appearances, leading the Pachichi (top score) race in La Liga by a whopping seven goals. He's averaging an eye-watering 5.03 shots and 2.23 shots on target per 90 in La Liga, as well as 0.90 xG per 90.
Mbappe has an unbeleivable record against Barca, be that with PSG or Real, scoring 12 in nine appearances agains the Catalonians, and has scored in all of his last four Clasicos including one hat-trick.
We'll take him TO SCORE 2+ as well at 5/1. The Frenchman has eight braces or better already this season in just 24 outings.
It's 50/1 for BOTH MBAPPE AND RAPHINHA TO SCORE 2+ GOALS and we simply have to include it, just in case. It did win in one of the league meetings last season.
Odds correct at 17:30 GMT (09/01/26)
More from Sporting Life
- Fixtures, results and live scores
- Home of This Week's Acca
- Football and other sports tips
- Download the Sporting Life app
- Podcasts and video content
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.
