Champions League betting tips: Borussia Dortmund v Manchester City best bets and preview
Manchester City take a 2-1 lead to Dortmund, and Jake Osgathorpe thinks they will press home their advantage in the second leg.
Football betting tips: Dortmund v Manchester City (agg: 1-2)
1.5pts Manchester City to win and Under 3.5 Goals at 9/5 (Betway)
Manchester City are in control of this tie heading to Germany, but Dortmund’s away goal at the Etihad means this tie isn’t over yet.
Pep Guardiola’s side are still chasing an unprecedented quadruple despite losing to Leeds on Saturday, though the Infogol model calculated that City would lose that match on just 1% of occasions based on the quality of chances created.
City are playing at an incredible level this season, especially defensively, and that should stand them in good stead heading into this second leg.
Guardiola, often branded an ‘over-thinker’ in these type of games, shouldn’t really do that in this clash given the dominance City had in the first leg, and the space which Dortmund provided them to operate in with their high press.
That space should be even greater in this second leg given the predicament the Germans find themselves in, needing to chase the game, and I think City can punish what is a vulnerable defence.
Dortmund not on City’s level
BVB did win 3-2 away at Stuttgart in the Bundesliga at the weekend, but that was the sixth time in their last seven matches that Dortmund have conceded two or more goals in a match.
Over that period, they have allowed a huge 1.67 expected goals against per game (xGA), which is simply not good enough for a team that boasts such talent.
What is expected goals (xG)?
- Expected goals (xG) is a metric that measures the quality of any given scoring opportunity
- Expected goals for (xGF) is the xG created by a team
- Expected goals against (xGA) is xG conceded by a team
We know the attacking threat that they pose, led by Erling Haaland, but I suspect that they will struggle to make an impact on this game as City may well kill the tie with ball domination and an early goal.
Citizens backline to keep goals at a minimum
While in theory this second leg is set up to be an open one, given Dortmund’s need for a goal that could provide extra space for City to attack, I think we will see a more controlled display from the current Champions League favourites.
Their attacking metrics are down year-on-year, but their defensive ones are at levels that rival Pep’s best seasons as City coach.
Across the Premier League and Champions League this season, Manchester City have allowed an eye-watering average of just 0.71 xGA per game.
That is a remarkable improvement on last season’s average of 1.01, which shows just how suffocating they are being defensively.
In my opinion, City will limit Dortmund to very little, while creating at the other end, so I like the price of 9/5 available about a MANCHESTER CITY WIN AND UNDER 3.5 GOALS.
This bet has won in 14 of Manchester City’s 31 Premier League matches this season (45%) and in seven of their nine Champions League matches this season (78%), so a price of 9/5 with an implied probability of 36% looks a value bet.
Dortmund v Manchester City best bets and score prediction
- 1.5pts Manchester City to win and Under 3.5 Goals at 9/5 (Betway)
Score prediction: Dortmund 1-2 Manchester City (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)
Odds correct at 0850 BST (13/04/21)
More from Sporting Life
Responsible gambling
We are committed in our support of responsible gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133, or visit begambleaware.org.
Further support and information can be found at GamCare and gamblingtherapy.org.
MOST READ FOOTBALL
FOOTBALL TIPS
