Derby v Nottingham Forest tips: Championship best bets and preview
East Midlands rivals Derby and Nottingham Forest meet at Pride Park on Saturday lunchtime - and Michael Beardmore believes tempers could flare.
Football betting tips: Sky Bet Championship
2pts 2+ cards for each team at 11/10 (Bet 365)
1pt 30+ booking points each team at 10/3 (Sky Bet)
The East Midlands derby has been a staple of the Sky Bet Championship for the best part of two decades now.
Since 2002/03, these sides have met at least twice a season for all but three campaigns from 2005-08 – Forest temporarily descending into League One and Derby making an even briefer return to the top flight.
And, boy, have there been some dust-ups in that time.
Kick-off time: 12:30 BST, Saturday
TV channel: Sky Sports Main Event
Derby 29/20 | Draw 2/1 | Forest 21/10
I’m going to discount last season’s encounters for tipping purposes here as derbies without fans are not proper derbies – they were both relatively tame 1-1 draws played in front of zero supporters.
For preview purposes, I’m using the Sky Bet booking point tallies of 10 points for a yellow card and 25 for a straight red. If it’s two yellows that lead to a red, that’s 35 points.
Here are the booking point totals for the past 24 East Mids league derbies (not including fan-less 2020-21) – 35-30, 30-30, 20-30, 30-30, 40-45, 0-10, 10-10, 30-50, 20-20, 30-10, 20-20, 40-45, 10-30, 40-45, 0-10, 65-20, 20-65, 30-35, 65-30, 10-30, 50-30, 20-40, 20-0, 30-75.
Barring four games with two bookings or fewer, it's pretty brutal - 123 yellow cards and nine reds in those 24 meetings.
On 17 of those 24 occasions, both teams have amassed more than 20 booking points each which makes the 11/10 offered by Bet365 on 2+ CARDS EACH TEAM look incredibly inviting. Sky Bet go 10/11 for 20+ booking points each in a similar bet.
Of course, past history is only one of the factors to be taken into account – but there are other pointers towards this being a card-heavy game, not least the appointment of referee Tim Robinson.
Last season, he awarded 123 yellow cards and five reds in 40 Football League games, an average of more than three cards per game. This season he’s dished out 20 yellows in four matches. He likes a card.
As far as this season goes, Derby, perhaps channeling combustible boss Wayne Rooney, have picked up 10 cautions in four games, Forest six yellows and a red – on the Sky Bet points basis, the Rams are averaging 25 points, Forest 21.25.
Absolutely everything points to cards being shown at Pride Park, it’s impossible to get away from.
Indeed, it’s also worth noting that in 11 of those aforementioned 24 derbies, both teams have exceeded 30+ booking points – that’s almost 50% of the time, making the 10/3 on 30+ BOOKING POINTS EACH TEAM appealing too.
The outright outcome is best avoided. Derby have possibly exceeded expectations with five points from 12 thus far after their catastrophic summer and financial troubles, while Infogol’s Expected Goals metric shows Forest are unfortunate to be bottom without a point – all four of their defeats have been by a single goal.
All three outcomes are possible here and none can be backed with any certainty – and given both sides are averaging less than a goal per game, the scoring markets are tough to justify either. That under 2.5 goals is a skinny best-priced 4/7 says it all.
Instead, given history, the return of impassioned fans and the referee's reputation, it’s best to be cautious - and back cautions.
Derby v Nottingham Forest best bets and score prediction
- 2pts 2+ cards for each team at 11/10 (Bet 365)
- 1pt 30+ booking points each team at 10/3 (Sky Bet)
Score prediction: Derby 0-0 Nottingham Forest (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)
Odds correct 2100 BST (27/08/21)
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