Wayne Rooney's Derby County host struggling Birmingham on Sunday afternoon. Jake Pearson has previewed the fixture, picking out his best bet.
Football betting tips: Championship
1.5pts Both Teams to Score ‘NO’ at 17/20 (BetVictor)
Despite their ongoing problems off the pitch, Derby’s results on it continue to be positive, with Wayne Rooney attracting plenty of attention from Premier League clubs (mainly Everton albeit) following his enduring success at Pride Park.
The Rams have collected 13 points from the last eighteen available – only Huddersfield have picked up more across the same period.
It’s all ifs-ad-buts of course, but Derby would currently be in fifteenth position in the Sky Bet Championship were it not for the points deduction, ahead of opponent’s Birmingham, who, unlike Rooney’s men, have struggled for any sort of consistency this season.
Kick-off time: 13:30, Sunday
TV channel: Sky Sports Football
Derby 13/10 | Draw 21/10 | Birmingham 23/10
Their 2-1 victory over Barnsley ended a run of six league games without a win, though given the Tykes have won just twice all season, anything other than a win would have been a huge disappointment for Lee Bowyer’s side.
A home fixture against third-bottom Peterborough in midweek looked a good opportunity for the Blues to collect another win, but they could only manage a draw, and were perhaps fortunate to come away with that, two goals behind with less than twenty five minutes to play.
That late comeback could give Birmingham a much-needed lift, but they remain without a win on the road since October, and given the Rams have been very difficult to beat at Pride Park of late – winning each of their last three homes matches – they will certainly need to produce one of their better performances of the season to exit Derby with even a point.
Derby’s 2-1 defeat to rivals Nottingham Forest will have been a bitter pill for Rams fans to swallow at the weekend, but there really is no shame in losing to Steve Cooper’s men – since the former Swansea manager was appointed, only Fulham have picked up more points than Forest.
It certainly does not detract from the progress Derby have made this season, Rooney reinvigorating a necessarily youthful side, but the crucial factor for the Rams’ success this term is undoubtedly down to their stinginess at the back.
Only four teams in the division have conceded fewer than the 26 goals Derby have allowed this term, with Rooney’s men keeping their opponents entirely at bay in 10 of their 27 fixtures.
And it is with this in mind that our selection has been reached in this fixture, with BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE ‘NO’ appealing at a standout price of 17/20.
Given the current situation at Pride Park, Derby fans will certainly be happy with the way the season is going, but any neutral tuning into Rams matches may not be, games involving Rooney’s men averaging a league-low of just 1.93 goals per game.
With their last three home matches all ending in a victory to nil, it becomes all the more difficult to envisage Birmingham creating too many opportunities against this water-tight backline, even more so when considering the Blues have failed to find the back of the net in 50% of their away matches this season.
Only games involving Hull and West Brom have seen both teams score on fewer occasions than games involving Birmingham (61%), with that figure rising when Bowyer’s men go travelling (71%).
From Birmingham’s point of view, though they have conceded 42 goals already this term, they have been unfortunate to do so according to expected goals (xG) metrics, with the quality of chances they have allowed this term putting their expected goals against (xGA) total at closer to 35.
Derby aren’t the most creative team in the league and could easily find themselves stifled, with this fixture likely to meander along with few thrills to write home about.
Derby v Birmingham best bets and score prediction
- 1.5pts Both Teams to Score ‘NO’ at 17/20 (BetVictor)
Score prediction: Derby 0-0 Birmingham (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Odds correct 0900 GMT (27/01/22)
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