Saturday's early kick-off in the Premier League sees Crystal Palace welcome Tottenham and Tom Carnduff has found a best bet.
1pt Conor Gallagher to have 4+ tackles at 7/4 (Sky Bet)
Is Tottenham's start to the season - one which has brought three wins from win including triumph over Manchester City - sustainable in the long run? The data says no, with Nuno Espirito Santo's men sitting in 11th on Infogol's expected table based on expected goals (xG).
In Palace, they face a side still waiting for their first win, but one that does have two points on the board. Survival is the aim as they underwent a rebuild in the summer and games like this won't necessarily be the ones where victory is needed - although a win would be a bonus in their quest to avoid the bottom three.
The international break hasn't been kind to Tottenham with issues arising from the past week or so. Giovani Lo Celso and Cristian Romero's well publicised involvement for Argentina in Brazil will see them absent while injury doubts surround Son Heung-min, Steven Bergwijn and Oliver Skipp.
Even with those players missing, they should get something from this contest but it may not be as easy as their odds-on price suggests. With that uncertainty, it's best to avoid the outright market altogether.
So where is the value in a game like this? Tackles has been a profitable route during the start of the season and there is one price that sticks out in this game - that being the 7/4 on CONOR GALLAGHER TO HAVE 4+ TACKLES with Sky Bet.
Four is a big ask but it's a regular part of his game. His Premier League average stands at 2.5 after two games while he also saw two in 63 minutes during the Carabao Cup defeat to Watford. Against one of the 'better' teams in the division, Gallagher should be set for a busy afternoon in centre midfield.
He regularly sees a high number of tackles - Gallagher averaged 2.7 per Premier League game during his loan spell with West Brom last season and also had two in the Sky Bet Championship during a high-season stint with Charlton in 2019/20.
Gallagher is a player who will often have a high tackles line but he does deliver and we can remain optimistic that he will go above his usual average given the calibre of the opponent. He had four tackles v Liverpool and four v Arsenal in the final few games of the 2020/21 campaign.
At 7/4, there is more appeal in taking this bet than the outright options - one team in an unsustainable run of form against another sat further down the table.
Score prediction: Crystal Palace 1-1 Tottenham (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Odds correct at 1400 BST (09/09/21)
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