Crystal Palace v Leicester tips: Premier League preview and best bets
Crystal Palace host Leicester in a televised Premier League game on Sunday, and Joe Rindl has found some value in the goalscorer markets.
Football betting tips: Premier League
1.5pts Jamie Vardy to score anytime at 8/5 (Unibet)
Things have gone from bad to worse for Leicester City, who fell to a flat 1-0 defeat away to Legia Warsaw in the Europa League on Thursday night.
Brendon Rogers’ side have now won just one of their past six games, sitting 13th in the Premier League with seven points from their first six games.
They travel to a Crystal Palace side who have also won only one of their past six, but recent performances and their strength of opposition suggest the stats are undervaluing the hosts.
These two teams may have finished 22 points apart last year, but it seems like their match on Sunday could go either way.
Kick-off time: 14:00 BST, Sunday
TV channel: Sky Sports Main Event
Crystal Palace 2/1 | Draw 12/5 | Leicester 13/10
Patrick Vieira’s Crystal Palace have won the expected goals (xG) battle in three of their last four matches. The most noteworthy of those wins was their 2.88 - 0.10 victory over Tottenham, which, rather fairly, resulted in a famous 3-0 win.
Even against rivals Brighton - who for so long have been the golden child of xG analysts - the Eagles edged out 1.31 to 1.01. On the pitch, they were denied all three points thanks to Neal Maupay’s 95th-minute equaliser.
Let’s not get too carried away, though. Against sides that finished in the top five last year, Palace were humbled 3-0 away to both Liverpool and Chelsea.
Leicester have won three and drawn four of their past four matches with the south-Londoners too, scoring eight and conceding just two.
So what can we expect from the visitors?
Their 2-2 home draw with Burnley last time out serves as the perfect summary of their season so far. Dominant in possession (67%) and creating the superior expected goals count (1.9 to 0.54) - a combination of poor finishing and sloppy defending turned a win into a draw.
Excluding the Community Shield, Leicester have kept just two clean sheets in all competitions this season, and are in the midst of a run of just one clean sheet from their past 12 fixtures in the league.
If this game was at any other ground, a both teams to score ‘yes’ might be a very safe bet. After all, Leicester have both scored and conceded in each of their past 10 away league games.
But Palace's meagre tally of 14 attempts on target is the lowest in the Premier League this season. I still don’t trust the Eagles in front of goal.
So I’m avoiding the team markets altogether and going with the goalscorer.
JAMIE VARDY is back to scoring form, having netted three in his past two matches and seven in his past seven.
The Englishman is 8/5 to SCORE ANYTIME with Unibet. Vardy is averaging an xG of 0.53 per match this season, and his five goals so far put him well ahead of his expected total of 3.18.
Expect him to find the net once again at Selhurst Park.
Crystal Palace v Leicester best bets and score prediction
- 1.5pts Jamie Vardy to score anytime at 8/5 (Unibet)
Score prediction: Crystal Palace 0-3 Leicester City (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)
Odds correct at 1500 BST (01/10/21)
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