Football betting tips: FA Cup
2pts 31+ Total shots at 10/11 (BoyleSports)
1pt Coventry 15+ shots at 13/10 (BetVictor)
Manchester United's struggles are always well-documented, and this season has been no different.
It's been as hysterical as ever, with extra hyperbole thanks to a combination of Sir Jim Ratcliffe's minority investment - and the expectation of what may come as a result - and United's seeming unlimited ability to fluke wins.
According to expected goals (xG) data, Erik ten Hag's side warrant more like 14th (not seventh) place in the Premier League table.
It's perhaps no surprise then that results are finally catching up with performances.
One win, courtesy of two penalties against Everton when thoroughly outplayed, from seven league games has seen the chasing pack begin to close in, finally.
The bookies are no fools either, with most firms only willing to offer Sky Bet Championship club Coventry at 9/2 to cause an upset in 90 minutes. For context, second-tier Sheffield United were as big as 20/1 when they took on Manchester City at the same stage 12 months ago.
United are no City, but still, they should have too much for Mark Robins' side in this FA Cup semi-final.
At the prices it really isn't worth chancing a shock.
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What are the best bets?
What does feel worthwhile is relying on Ten Hag's team's complete inability to control matches, allowing opposition a staggering number of attempts on goal.
No side has allowed more than their 17.9 shots per game in the top flight this season.
In the FA Cup, Liverpool (24), Nottingham Forest (16) and even League Two club Newport County (17) have caused major problems for the United defence.
COVENTRY are not a team to sit back and frustrate, as demonstrated by their thrilling 3-2 win at Wolves in the quarter-finals, and with 15+ SHOTS a healthy bit of odds-against, it should be backed accordingly.
United's lack of control does at the very least lend itself to entertaining, basketball-style contests, with they themselves also registering plenty of attempts on goal.
Their league matches have averaged 32 shots per game this term, with their FA Cup ties seeing an incredible 41, 39, 36 and 42 in 90 minutes.
The 10/11 about 31+ TOTAL SHOTS therefore appeals greatly too.
- 31+ Total shots
- Coventry 15+ total shots
- Josh Eccles to commit 2+ fouls
- Casemiro to be carded
- Ellis Simms 2+ shots on target
With much of this match sure to flip between either side of the halfway line, a lot will hinge on the performances of the teams' central midfielders, with it likely the tenacious JOSH ECCLES will be key for Coventry. CASEMIRO could well spend plenty of time running back towards his own goal - something he really doesn't like to do nowadays - and ELLIS SIMMS will likely be the man he is chasing most of the time.
Team news
Coventry will be without key midfielder Kasey Palmer after he was booked for his celebrations following their 110th minute against Wolves in the previous round.
Tatsuhiro Sakamoto is still out but Matty Godden returns and Jamie Allen could be in a squad for the first time since February.
While Palmer is banned for collecting two yellow cards in this season's competition, a bizarre quirk of the rules means Amad Diallo is available for Manchester United despite being sent off in their quarter-final win over Liverpool.
The winger's second yellow card was in similar circumstances as he was booked for removing his shirt in celebration.
Scott McTominay and Antony should return while Alejandro Garnacho is available after apologising for liking social media posts criticising Ten Hag's management.
Predicted line-ups
Coventry: Collins; Latibeaudiere, Thomas, Kitching, Bidwell, Van Ewijk; Sheaf, Eccles, O'Hare; Wright, Simms.
Man Utd: Onana; Dalot, Kambwala, Maguire, Wan-Bissaka; Casemiro, Mainoo; Garnacho, Fernandes, Rashford; Hojlund.
Odds correct at 1300 BST (19/04/24)
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