Coventry and Luton meet in the Championship play-off final with a place in the Premier League up for grabs. James Cantrill previews the game picking out three best bets.
Football betting tips: Championship Play-off final
2.5pts Both Teams to Score 'No' at 20/23 (Betfair Sportsbook)
1pt No First Goalscorer at 8/1 (bet365)
0.5pts Gus Hamer and Marvelous Nakamba to both be carded at 11/1 (bet365)
* All bets 90 minutes
It's play-off weekend, the cynosure of the domestic calendar.
First up, the richest game in football, with the Premier League beckoning for either Coventry or Luton.
It is a match-up laced with romance. Six seasons ago, these sides met in the fourth tier, and by Saturday evening one will have returned to the top flight.
Kick-off time: 16:45 BST, Saturday
TV channel: Sky Sports Main Event
Coventry 11/5 | Draw 2/1 | Luton 7/5
The job Rob Edwards has done at Luton cannot be understated, a statistic from Tom Carnduff in his Championship outright play-off preview illustrates the scale of Luton’s turnaround.
The Hatters would have won 92 points across the season if they could have emulated their points per game average under Edwards, a tally that would have seen them pip Sheffield United (91) to that second automatic spot.
Aston Villa loanee, MARVELOUS NAKAMBA, has played a pivotal role for the Hatters, if not a slightly understated one.
Since the midfielder made his debut from the bench at the beginning of February, Luton have only lost twice.
The first was a marginal defeat against runaway leaders Burnley, where the only goal came via the spot, and the other was the first leg of their play-off semi final against Sunderland.
Nakamba was monumental across those two legs, racking up 16 tackles, committing four fouls and picking up a booking against the Black Cats.
If his side are going to stand any chance of reaching the top flight, Town’s enforcer will have to keep GUS HAMER quiet on Saturday.
Nakamba’s opposite number looks set to be playing in the Premier League next season, with or without Coventry.
The maestro scored the goal against Middlesbrough that secured the Sky Blues place at Wembley and was also booked at the Riverside, rounding his goals and cards tally to 10 a piece. Coventry’s heartbeat also has 10 assists and is currently playing at his swashbuckling best.
Goals win games, but this match will be decided in the middle of the park by Hamer and Nkamaba, a battle that could spill over. Backing both players TO BE SHOWN A CARD appeals.
To stop Coventry, Viktor Gyökeres must also be contained. The striker has the second most goals in the league, and who has had a direct hand in 31 goals this campaign.
It sounds simple enough, whether it is realistic is another matter.
Failing that, a high-press has proved to be the Coventry's Achilles heel in the past, which, coincidently, is a strength of Luton’s.
Edwards side bullied Sunderland into submission at Kenilworth Road, steamrolling them with a breathless high press and uncompromising territory. How sustainable that approach will be on the vast, plush Wembley turf remains to be seen. The Hatters did struggle on the large pitch at the Stadium of Light.
Only Burnley (47) have won more points away from home than Luton (41) this season. The Hatters scored one goal or less in 70% of those fixtures though, suggesting what they lacked in adventure they made up for in organisation.
On a pitch that does not suit their style, Edwards could opt for a pragmatic approach in the capital, which does not bode well for a goal laden clash.
Mark Robins went for a similar ploy against Middlesbrough. His side lived in the realms of fine margins, with a xGD of +0.66 splitting the sides across the two legs.
Boro, who have averaged 2.6 goals per game at home under Michael Carrick, could not find the net, which was a first for the rookie boss.
There was nothing to split Coventry and Luton in the league, and with the stakes raised here, siding with BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE ‘NO’ is worth a tout.
Historically, this bet has clicked in nine of the last 10 Championship play-off finals.
In fact, given the occasion, goals are often of a premium which is why NO FIRST GOALSCORER is worth a punt.
This is essentially the same as backing 0-0 correct score or under 0.5 goals but it covers you if only own goals are scored, as was the case in this match last season.
That was the fourth time over the last 10 years that this bet has clicked in the second tiers play-off final.
Coventry v Luton best bets and score prediction
- 2.5pts Both Teams to Score 'No' at 20/23 (Betfair Sportsbook)
- 1pt No First Goalscorer at 8/1 (bet365)
- 0.5pts Gus Hamer and Marvelous Nakamba to both be carded at 11/1 (bet365)
Score prediction: Coventry 0-0 Luton (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Odds correct at 0940 BST (25/05/23)
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