High-flying pair Coventry and Fulham meet in the Sky Bet Championship on Saturday lunchtime and Michael Beardmore has cornered the market with his preview and best bets.
Football betting tips: Championship
1pt Over 11 corners (12 or more) at 3/1 (Bet365)
1pt 7+ Coventry corners at 4/1 (Sky Bet)
You quickly become accustomed to being surprised by nothing in the madcap world of the Sky Bet Championship – something Coventry and Fulham can attest to only too well.
Flying high in the table after five wins in seven, Mark Robins’ Sky Blues suffered a 5-0 thumping out of absolutely nowhere at Luton on Tuesday night.
Fulham, meanwhile, a point and a place above Coventry in third in the table, have endured shock defeats at Blackpool and at home to Reading in September.
So, who to back – the hosts, with a perfect home record of five wins from five league games, or the visitors, who boast arguably the most talented squad in the second tier?
Kick-off time: 12:30 BST, Saturday
TV channel: Sky Sports Football
Coventry 11/4 | Draw 5/2 | Fulham 19/20
The 11/4 about Coventry, with that flawless home record, screams value at first glance but I worry how much that midweek mauling has hit their confidence, particularly given the calibre of opponent they face here.
The even money available on Fulham with some firms also looks good on paper given they are odds-on in most Championship games but they are far from infallible and it makes sense to move away from the outright outcome.
After such a heavy defeat, Coventry will likely go back to basics defensively and I was tempted by the ‘unders’ market as a result but 10/11 on under 2.5 goals is too skinny against the Championship top scorers especially with both sides among the top four for Expected Goals in the division.
Instead, I’m doing what all winning footballers do late in the game – and heading to the corner flag, primarily because Coventry have proven to be the Championship’s corner kings this season.
Their games are averaging 11.3 corners per match and that’s after a slow start in their first two games when only five and six flag-kicks were awarded against Nottingham Forest and Barnsley.
Since then, seven of the Sky Blues’ past eight matches have featured 12 corners or more – 17, 12, 16, 14, 13, 12 and 12, with the outlier being just five in a routine 3-0 win over Peterborough.
So it is a welcome surprise to see Bet365 quoting 3/1 on OVER 11 CORNERS (i.e. 12 or more) given we can expect Fulham (whose games are averaging 9.5 corners) to also contribute on that score.
Both Fulham and Coventry are among the top three teams for shots on goal in the second tier so far this season – and more shots often means more corners.
I’m also keen to back the hosts separately in this market – it’s no surprise they are seeing a high number of flag-kicks with the way they attack (they even registered seven in the hiding at Luton).
Coventry have players like Callum O’Hare and Gustavo Hamer unafraid to shoot from range but also carry a wide threat, frequently getting balls to the byline for crosses into Viktor Gyokeres and Martyn Waghorn.
In that eight-game run, Coventry’s corner count has been 11, 10, 11, 7, 7, 4, 4 and 7 – meaning 7+ COVENTRY CORNERS would have landed in six (75%), making the 4/1 Sky Bet offer on that eventuality happening again look enticing.
With the scoring markets dominated by short-odds pair Aleksandar Mitrovic (10 goals) and Gyokeres (seven) and the outcome uncertain, it’s best to head to the corner for the better prices here.
Coventry v Fulham best bets and score prediction
- Over 11 corners (12 or more) at 3/1 (Bet365)
- 7+ Coventry corners at 4/1 (Sky Bet)
Score prediction: Coventry 1-1 Fulham (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Odds correct as of 1600 BST (30/09/21)
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