Take a good long look at the Premier League table today, because the next time you think to glance at it – a month from now – it will be completely different.
The furious, ridiculous, and borderline incomprehensible festive period starts on Tuesday, marking the end of Act One and the beginning of a schedule nobody else in world football has ever been foolish enough to replicate.
There are 80 Premier League matches in the 38 days between December 2 and January 8. That’s eight full rounds in five weeks, covering four weekends and three midweeks, with each Premier League team playing, on average, every 4.75 days. Somehow, there’s a round of European matches squeezed in there too.
By the time we come up for air in the second weekend of January for the FA Cup third round, Premier League teams will have each played 21 matches, or, an increase of 62% on where we are right now.
It took the best part of four months to play 13 rounds. It takes just over one month to do the next eight.
It’s a game of survival. Clubs with the deepest benches - and more used to playing twice a week - tend to do best, which is why this is usually the time of year the bigger clubs begin to rise and the under-dogs who made fast starts begin to sink.
That trend is likely to continue.
Sunderland have a tough set of games – they travel to the Emirates and the Etihad this week, playing Man City twice in this run – and could drop out of the European places over Christmas, as might Brighton, who have benefited enormously from free midweeks up to this point.
Conversely, Liverpool have the fixture list in their favour and inevitably will be forced into the squad rotation that Arne Slot has been reluctant to instigate by choice, pointing towards an improvement; the games coming thick and fast is good for a team currently playing well below their level and overthinking things.
Those three clubs moving around would already make the Premier League table look more in line with pre-season expectations. Worse, by the time we look at the table again the title and relegation battles could be over.
Man City have a kind set of games and may put pressure on Arsenal, but Mikel Arteta’s side have the easier matches and, over eight rounds, look likely to pull away. Pep Guardiola’s team have wobbled significantly when rotating their squad this season, while Arsenal have first-team players like Viktor Gyokeres and Martin Odegaard returning from injury just in time keep things fresh.
At the bottom, Leeds United and Burnley have been far worse than their points tallies suggest, and with neither team playing any six-pointers in this period – plus with West Ham and Nottingham Forest steadily improving – they, and Wolves, will probably be cut off eight rounds from now.
The most interesting, and unpredictable, clubs in this run are Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur, which is hardly surprising considering they are confusing enough before we enter the most cluttered part of the calendar.
It is possible Thomas Frank’s conservatism will prove to be a secret weapon to grind out results in exhausting times, although if Spurs’ confidence is already low then it is hard to see them put a serious run together in this period. It is very rare for any club to have a purple patch through December.
United’s recovery will be stress-tested over the next five weeks, but after enjoying a full week to prepare for each challenge, Ruben Amorim can probably expect a few more difficult days ahead.
They could, once again, be the outlier; the exception to the rule of financial strength dictating league position. There is a strong probability that these next eight rounds will sort the wheat from the chaff, will take oxygen from the sprightly overachievers and breathe new life into those with bigger budgets and deeper benches.
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