Football betting tips: Conference League
1pt Jorgen Strand Larsen to be carded at 8/1 (bet365) - min price 4/1
1pt Marcus Rohden to be carded at 4/1 (Sky Bet, Betfair, Paddy Power) - min price 2/1
1pt Maxence Lacroix 1+ shot on target at 11/4 (Coral, Ladbrokes) - min price 9/5
Crystal Palace have all but secured their Premier League survival with two wins from their last three, which means they can solely focus on winning the Europa Conference League.
The Eagles edged past Bosnian club Zrinjski Mostar 3-1 on aggregate, and take on a familiar foe in AEK Larnaca in the last 16. The Cypriot side were the first visitors to Selhurst Park in the league phase of the competition, and secured a smash-and-grab 1-0 win in a huge upset.
Larnaca were out-shot 15-4 on the night, and lost the xG battle 1.76-0.20, so were somewhat fortunate to come away with victory, but they went through six league phase games without losing, relying on defensive solidity.
Across their six matches they conceded just 5.3 xGA, an average of 0.88 per game, so could well be capable of frustrating Palace once again.
Oliver Glasner's side will at least be well rested for this first leg having not played for a full week, a rarity for the Eagles this season, but I still don't want to back them in any market, with a home win 1/4.
With Larnaca fancied to keep things tight, that word 'frustration' leads me to back JORGEN STRAND LARSEN TO BE CARDED at a whopping 8/1.
The price is massive, and while he is one card away from a suspension, we can't turn down such a value price. He's 10/3 in places.
Since moving to Palace from Wolves, the Norwegian striker has been booked four times in seven starts, which comes as no surprise given he's committed 18 fouls in that time (2.86 per 90).
The market has him priced at 3/10 to commit 2+ fouls, so the 8/1 for a card looks large given referee Igor Pajac has averaged 4.66 cards per game across three Europa League contests - this is his first Conference League game.
Strand Larsen was booked in both matches against Zrinjski, with his overzealous and physical approach getting punished by referees - just as Palace striker Jean-Philippe Mateta was in the first meeting between these sides.
Larnaca's MARCUS ROHDEN was also booked in that game and he's 4/1 TO BE CARDED again, a price that looks generous. The Swedish midfielder has played only twice in the Conference League because of injury, but has since returned to fitness and has started the last two games.
Across league and Conference League games this season, Rohden has been carded four times at an average of 0.43 cards per 90, while in the first meeting he was heavily involved in a proper midfield battle.
Rohden was fouled three times and committed four himself against Palace's combative midfielders, and a repeat would put him in the frame for yet another card.
Palace caused their visitors all sorts of problems from set-pieces the last time they played, generating 0.48 xG from dead-balls, and that looks an avenue to attack once again with MAXENCE LACROIX worth chancing for 1+ SHOT ON TARGET at 11/4.
The Frenchman, who missed Palace's last league game through suspension, has scored in his last two starts and has registered at least one shot in 10 of his last 12 starts. He's fired a shot on target in four of his last seven too, so in a game where the Eagles are going to have a lot of territory and likely a lot of set-pieces, this looks worth chancing.
He's 9/1 to score anytime (Coral, Ladbrokes) for those wanting to back him to find the net for the third game running.
Odds correct at 15:40 GMT (10/3/26)
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