Football betting tips: Community Shield
1pt Correct score 1-1 after 90 minutes at 6/1 (Betfred)
0.5pt Correct score 2-2 after 90 minutes at 12/1 (BOYLESports)
0.5pt Phil Foden to be carded at 6/1 (bet365)
Last season's Premier League winners Arsenal take on FA Cup winners Manchester City in the season's curtain raiser (apparently).
It is technically the first piece of silverware available to be won in the new season, but we as English football fans generally tend to scoff at the showpiece, calling it a 'glorified friendly', a view only likely to be solidified by the fact this match is taking place in Cardiff after Wembley was double booked for The Weeknd's 'After Hours Til Dawn' tour.
While that may be the case, this will be the first competitive Manchester City game without Pep Guardiola, who departed the club in the summer, replaced by his former assistant Enzo Maresca.
Guardiola has managed in this in six of the last eight seasons, winning three, so the lack of him on the touchline for the very first time in nearly a decade at Manchester City will come as a shock, and will certainly take some getting used to.
It will no doubt have an impact on proceedings, with City starting a new adventure and perhaps early in the understanding of Maresca-ball, and that, coupled with the fact we will have a number of stars on either side either missing or limited in their minutes following a hectic season and an elongated World Cup means it could feel even more friendly than usual.
Declan Rice and Bukayo Saka are unlikely to start for Arsenal having not featured at all in pre-season, while William Saliba and Jurrien Timber are both out injured. Bruno Guimaraes is in line to make his first start for the Gunners though.
Rodri will be missing for City as he nears an exit, while Erling Haaland only returned to training on Thursday so is unlikely to start. That's the case with new signing Elliot Anderson too.
Arsenal are priced as the 13/8 favourites to win in 90 minutes and 17/20 to lift the trophy.
Take a swing at correct scores
The Community Shield has a very strong recent history of draws in 90 minutes. In fact, six of the last nine have ended all square and gone to penalties.
It tends to be the case that, given the pre-season feel to the game, one team starts well, runs out of gas and the other team hits back late.
The Draw is available at 5/2 and is the angle I'll be taking, but looking at the recent showings I think we can be a bit bolder.
The 1-1 CORRECT SCORE has landed in five of those last nine, with the 2-2 CORRECT SCORE landing once, so we'll back both at 6/1 and 12/1.
We haven't seen a 0-0 draw in this game since 2008, and I suspect that will continue given the teams on show. Two of the last four league meetings between the pair have finished in draws, with a 1-1 and a 2-2 both landing, while the last time they played in this match it was also 1-1.
For those wondering why we aren't backing the 3-3 in case things really escalate there hasn't been an Over 5.5 goal Community Shield since 1992 when Leeds beat Liverpool 4-3.
Look out for a late goal
Another trend in the Community Shield has been the sheer number of late goals scored in the match, usually as a team is chasing an equaliser.
The average time of the last goal scored over the last nine editions is the 82nd minute, with a goal scored after the 75th minute in seven of the nine.
The only bookie offering any market of note was bet365 who had 'a goal to be scored after 75:59' priced at 5/6 which seems fair enough based on the data.
But, this is something to bear in mind when watching. There could well be a late goal, so perhaps throw a few darts at players from a team chasing the game to score.
A Foden fancy
After being left out of the England squad for the World Cup, I suspect PHIL FODEN will be champing at the bit to get back at it this season, and could be the freshest player on the pitch on Sunday.
That could mean him being a tad overzealous in his challenges, and at 6/1, I quite like the man with a point to prove TO BE CARDED.
Last season he cut a frustrated figure at times and accumulated five cards across all competitions, and while cards aren't overly prevalent in this fixture, the fact this match-up has become a bit of a rivalry in recent years and we have a decent referee appointment has me wanting to chance one.
Across the last five Community Shields we have seen an average of 2.8 cards per game, and this edition will be overseen by Sam Barrott who flashed 3.6 cards per game last season across all competitions. He's started this season with two games of four cards in competitive encounters.
The last five meetings between these clubs have delivered a card average of 4.4 cards, while Foden could well be up against Arsenal's newboy and foul-drawing aficionado Bruno Guimaraes here. The Brazilian won 2.75 fouls per 90 for Newcastle last season.
For those wanting a perhaps safer bet, the 11/4 for Foden to commit 2+ fouls is a solid alternative in case the referee forgets his cards, but we'll back him to bring them on Sunday.
Odds correct 14:55 BST (11/8/26)
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