Paris St Germain and Bayern Munich face off in the Champions League final on Sunday and Alex Keble is predicting plenty of goals.
Paris St Germain v Bayern Munich | Sunday 2000 BST | BT Sport 1
Considering Bayern Munich and Paris Saint-Germain were always among the favourites to make it to the Champions League final, and considering the mini-tournament in Portugal began with so many of the heavyweights still in the competition, it feels strange to say that neither finalist has yet been tested since the restart.
Bayern’s 8-2 thrashing of Barcelona highlighted how far the Catalans have fallen, while Hans-Dieter Flick’s side beat flawed Chelsea and Lyon teams either side of that fixture. In the other half of the draw, PSG knocked out under-dogs Atalanta and RB Leipzig – talented sides, but far weaker than Thomas Tuchel’s in terms of quality and financial power.
And yet this is the very reason why Sunday’s final looks set to be such a fascinating contest. Both Bayern and PSG rarely have to move out of third gear to win their respective domestic titles, leading to an attacking tactical mentality that leaves them soft at the back; without the necessary practice against super-club opposition, whether at home or in the Champions League, their back lines are not equipped for the ferocity of world-beating attacks. That should lead to plenty of goals.
This vulnerability has already been exposed in brief flashes. Bayern were caught alarmingly easily on the counter-attack in the early stages against Lyon, allowing the French outfit in behind on three occasions before the opening goal. Throughout the first half against Atalanta, PSG were often caught in possession, struggling to adapt to such an organised high press.
Tuchel’s ability to show tactical caution perhaps makes PSG unexpected favourites. He will most likely instruct his players to hold a slightly deeper line than usual and allow his players to feel their way into the match, just as they did against Atalanta. Their 4-4-2 formation (when out of possession) was designed to limit spaces in their own third, with Neymar and Kylian Mbappe then quickly released on the counter. This was initially read as a poor performance in that opening half, but had Neymar not missed three sitters we would have hailed it a tactical master stroke.
That is surely the right way to play against Bayern, luring them further forward while simultaneously denying space centrally for the piercing runs of Serge Gnabry and Ivan Perisic. Should PSG play this way, then Angel Di Maria’s tireless defensive work will be crucial; the Argentine is the box-to-box player who helps the formation morph from 4-4-2 to 4-3-1-2 (with Di Maria wide right and Neymar dropping into the number ten space) when the ball is won back. Consequently his battle with Alphonso Davies, at both ends of the pitch, should be the most important of the match.
The other key PSG player to keep an eye on is Leandro Peredes, whose line-splitting passes in the semi-final against Leipzig put the Parisians in control of the tie. On several occasions he played sharp balls straight through the middle and into Neymar’s feet, who had ghosted unseen into space thanks to the sudden switch of formation that occurs when Tuchel’s 4-4-2 become a 4-3-1-2. It remains to be seen whether Thiago and Leon Goretzka have the wherewithal to spot Neymar or cut out Peredes’s passes.
But for these themes to play out, PSG will need a near-perfect defensive performance to stop this lethal Bayern side. Gnabry, Perisic, Thomas Muller, and Robert Lewandowski have formed one of the best attacking quartets the Champions League has ever seen, and on current evidence PSG do not have the positional skills or the personnel to stop the German side from scoring at least twice.
Pederes might have made PSG more fluid on the ball, but without Idrissa Gueye the midfield lacks bite. Chelsea and Tottenham Hotspur fans know all too well what happens when central midfield is under-stocked; with Muller pulling the strings, Bayern simply tear through the middle.
Ander Herrera and Marquinhos could get over-run by Bayern’s high press, given that neither player excelled when put under significant pressure for the first 70 minutes against Atalanta in the quarter-final. There will be no space to receive the ball on the half turn or take an extra touch, something both players need, and if either player is caught out by the pincer press one suspects Flick will target Thiago Silva, the slower of the two centre-backs.
Recommended bet: Gnabry to score anytime at 6/4
Then again, talking about clear tactical patterns might be naïve ahead of a game like Sunday’s. This, after all, is a match that defines the spirit of modern football’s financial inequality and competitive stasis among Europe’s top leagues: an embarrassment of riches, but a defence that hasn’t been built – or tested – to play against fellow super-clubs. And so, far more likely than a calculated tactical battle, once the first goal goes in the midfields will become stretched as both forward lines look to counter and counter-counter.
It’s been 15 years since the miracle of Istanbul - Liverpool’s 3-3 draw against AC Milan - became the highest-scoring Champions League final. PSG and Bayern could set a new record in Lisbon.
Recommended bet: Over 4.5 goals at 5/2
Posted at 0915 BST on 21/08/20
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