Man City will go into their match with Burnley knowing the outcome of Liverpool's result at Huddersfield and our tipster expects them to see it through.
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Burnley v Man City
- Turf Moor, 1405 BST kick-off (Apr 28) on Sky Sports Premier League
Manchester City took a step closer to the title in midweek with a win over local rivals United.
They overcame a test of playing Tottenham and the Red Devils in back-to-back games, passing with flying colours to record their 11th successive victory in the Premier League.
After Liverpool fans found themselves in the odd position of wanting Man United to win the Old Trafford clash, now Burnley will have half of Merseyside cheering them on come Sunday afternoon.
A home win or draw would hand Liverpool the advantage - presuming they beat Huddersfield at Anfield on Friday.
Many would be quick to write the Clarets off but there are reasons to be hopeful for both supporters of the Clarets and Reds.
First of all, Sean Dyche's side travelled to Chelsea on Monday - pretty much safe going into the game - and held the top-four chasing Blues to a 2-2 draw.
Secondly, they are unbeaten in four in the Premier League and have beat Wolves and Tottenham at Turf Moor this term.
And finally, they drew this fixture against the Centurions last term, with thanks to Johann Berg Gudmundsson's strike on 82 minutes.
So there's hope? Even if it is only a glimmer...
Prediction: Burnley 1-3 Man City (Sky Bet odds: Price Boosted to 11/1)
A step closer to the title, City should be focused and get the job done on Sunday after knowing Liverpool's result against Huddersfield on Friday evening. The Citizens have failed to keep a league clean sheet at Turf Moor since 1999 while Burnley have collected a respectable four points from their last four meetings with City on home soil.
Dyche's Clarets will put up a fight and City could miss Fernandinho and Gundogan's string-pulling in midfield, but should still having enough to claim the points.
Best bet: 12+ shots on target at 13/8
With the odds heavily stacked in the visitors' favour, this is a nice odds-against price to back considering how the game is expected to go. Being the home side, Burnley should still have a few chances and look to test Ederson - they average four shots on target per game at Turf Moor - while City should have plenty of possession and chances at the other end.
They average 18 shots per away game and this threshold for shots on target does look realistic and appealing. If they concede first or find themselves drawing in the second half, this could fall into our hands with City pushing for a winner past Tom Heaton.
A market similar to our winner from City's win over Tottenham, which focused on City's first goal coming early on. Liverpool tend to kill games off in the second half, whereas Pep Guardiola's side burst out of the blocks and take an early lead.
It was purposely left off the Manchester derby, but in their four league games before that they have scored after 5 minutes, 15, 6 and 5. Burnley will be aware of this, but being able to prevent it is something else.
RequestABet: BTTS, under 4.5 goals and 7+ Man City corners
- Burnley are winless in their last seven meetings with Man City in all competitions (D1 L6) since a 1-0 win in March 2015.
- Man City have beaten Burnley 5-0 twice this season in all competitions. No team has ever scored 5+ goals against another three times in a single season in English Football League history.
- Excluding teams to have won the Premier League title themselves, Burnley have the best win ratio against reigning Premier League champions than any other side in the competition’s history (44% - P9 W4 D1 L4).
- 17 of Man City’s last 22 goals in all competitions against Burnley have come in the second half of matches, including eight of their 10 this season.
- Burnley are looking to win three consecutive home league games for the first time since a run of five ending in January 2017.
- Burnley have won just one of their last 15 home Premier League games against ‘big six’ opponents (W1 D2 L12), though it was their last such match at Turf Moor against Tottenham.
- Burnley have scored at least once in their last 12 home Premier League games, their longest such run since their first 15 games at Turf Moor in the competition.
- Man City striker Sergio Aguero has scored eight goals in his last seven meetings with Burnley in all competitions.
- Burnley’s Chris Wood has had a hand in five goals in his last three Premier League games (3 goals, 2 assists), after a run of five games without being involved in any.
- Ashley Barnes has scored 11 Premier League goals for Burnley this season – no player has ever netted more in a single campaign in the competition for the Clarets.