Chinese Super League Q&A with football betting traders

Luiz Felipe Scolari’s Guangzhou Evergrande have won the title for six straight seasons and are favourites once more.  Worthy market leaders or can they be taken on?

Scolari’s side have certainly proven their title credentials; they dominated the league last season conceding fewer and scoring more than any of their rivals over the course of the campaign on their way to yet another title, finishing seven points clear of second placed Jiangsu.

Proven goalscorers Ricardo Goulart, Alan and Jackson Martinez lead the line, in front of ex-Spurs midfield Paulinho, who many considered to be league’s best player in the 2016 season.

However, the lack of recruitment over the winter is a concern, particularly when you consider the business done by the other sides at the top of the league. Failure to improve the team has been the downfall of Premier League champions in recent years (Mancini’s City and Mourinho’s Chelsea) and we think Evergrande could fall victims to it this time round.

Jiangsu and Shanghai SIPG both have prospects of finally ending the title streak and they’re very tight in the betting, but out of the two I’d have to lean towards Shanghai. 

Led by Andrea Villas-Boas, they started last season strongly having finished as runners up in 2015. Hulk scored four goals in his first seven games before a two-month injury lay-off which coincided with a run of just two wins in 10 games. 

Despite that spell of form they managed to finish the season in third and secure an Asian Champions League qualification slot, and with the additions of Ricardo Carvalho from Monaco and defensive midfielder Odil Akhmedov from the Russian Premier League, the core of the side is much stronger.

In attack, the arrival of Oscar from Chelsea will see him link up with fellow Brazilians Hulk and Elkeson as well as Chinese superstar Wu Lei. That foursome guarantees goals and they’ve showed as much during a successful pre-season, which culminated in a 5-1 demolition of A-League runners up West Sydney Wanderers earlier this week.

There was a goal apiece for each of the star men in the match which saw them qualify for the ACL group stage. Hopefully that is a sign of things to come, as I fancy AVB’s side to go one better than they did in 2015 and win their first Chinese Super League title.

Expectations seem ridiculously high in terms of how the managers perform with Scolari and Gus Poyet of contenders Shanghai Shenhua already under the spotlight. Any early thoughts on who could be the first out of a job?  

The investment in the league has attracted quite a few big-name managers as well as players. Aside from the names already mentioned, there’s also Manuel Pellegrini, Fabio Cannavaro and Dragan Stojkovic who have all undertook the challenge.

The majority of these clubs have backed their managers heavily from a financial perspective and have equally big expectations.

From the list of high-profile managers, we expect Poyet to be the first on an outbound plane. His club Shanghai Shenhua courted a lot of attention after signing Carlos Tevez and giving him a record wage deal.

Considering Tevez’s controversial history - from shady deals to going AWOL and refusing to play - this move from his boyhood club Boca Juniors in Argentina to the CSL at the age of 33 makes me doubt whether we’re likely to see a motivated Tevez looking to fire Shenhua into contention.

Poyet himself hasn’t had the smoothest managerial career to date, lasting less than six months at each of his last two clubs since leaving Sunderland in 2015. 

Unlike their neighbours, Shenhua have had a poor pre-season and reports in China suggest the fans aren’t optimistic about the upcoming season. February saw them eliminated from the ACL in qualifying and aside from Tevez the only other notable signings have been two forwards who join from a side which finished bottom of the third division last year.

Gao Di, a fan favourite, has been loaned out and Demba Ba’s return to Besiktas means the pressure is really on Tevez and strike partner Obafemi Martins to perform. With all these factors already against Poyet, he’ll struggle to see out a full season in Shanghai.

There are four teams chalked up at single figures and then it is 16/1 bar – any potential Leicester Citys in amongst the bigger prices?

At bigger prices we like the look of Tianjin Quanjian.

Cannavaro guided his team to a League One title last year and in doing so earned promotion to the Super League. The World Cup-winning centre-back employs an attacking style of play and judging by the signings he’s made in the off-season he intends to carry this into the top flight.

Quanjian have upgraded their overseas players, with Luis Fabiano and Jadson replaced by Alexandre Pato and Axel Witsel, while the deadline day signing of striker Junior Moraes from Dynamo Kiev adds further firepower.

They’ve been linked with more big-name transfers and made some huge bids over the winter, so it’s likely we’ll to see further additions in the summer window. 

Despite a strong defensive record in 2015 they may struggle to keep out the top teams now they’re in the top division, however they have brought veteran CSL centre-back Yang Shanping from Liaoning Whowin who is expected to add some stability.

They’re definitely in with an each-way chance for the outright, but the 5/1 about them finishing in the top three makes even more appeal as they’ll be going all out to try and qualify for the ACL.

It's pretty close at the head of the bottom two betting, with quite a few sides set to fight it out to avoid the drop. Who are you expecting to struggle this season?

Henan Jianye were only three points above the bottom two last season and look the worst team by far on paper going into this term.

They’ve failed to bring in any reputable players and are lacking in all departments. Javier Patino was there top scorer last season with only eight goals - four of which came from the penalty spot.

They look destined for relegation and are a great bet at 4/5.

Shandong Luneng could also find themselves in a relegation scrap this year.

They survived by one place in 2016 despite having Graziano Pelle and Papiss Cisse up front. Felix Magath will be hoping they can make big improvements on that performance this year but the 4/1 about them slipping further and finishing in the bottom two looks tempting.

Wayne Rooney seems to have changed his mind about a move to China but who are the big names we should be looking out for in terms of potential top goalscorers?

Jackson Martinez leads the betting at 9/2 but it’s his namesake Roger Martinez who makes the most appeal at 6/1.

The young Colombian striker was prolific in the second half of last season after signing for Jiangsu in the summer.

He bagged 10 goals in 12 games and with a full pre-season and more time to adjust to life in China under-his-belt, he should carry that form into the new campaign.

Alex Teixeira and Ramires will be doing all they can to provide him with the service he needs, but he will undoubtedly be the main goal threat for last season’s runners-up so it's worth backing him to lead the scoring charts.

At bigger odds a few names standout: Gervinho at 33/1, Ezequiel Lavezzi and Pelle both at 40/1 all look decent value each-way. I also expect Oscar to get quite a few goals from his role in behind the front three and you can back him at 20/1.

Plenty of Premier League players though could be tempted to make the move – who will you be keeping onside in terms of potential summer transfer window targets for the Far East?

Rooney is still a short price to join a Chinese club following reports his agent has travelled to the Far East to seek out serious suitors - he’s currently 2/1 to join in the summer.

Tianjin Quanjin apparently have a limitless budget for this season and have so far seen a £90m bid for Diego Costa rejected. The board were also keen to sign Edinson Cavani but Cannavaro opted to bring in Pato and Moraes instead, though if the season isn’t going to plan by the time the window reopens, he may look to splash the cash.

Andy Carroll has caught the eye of a number of teams and it’s not difficult to see him potentially making the move at the end of the season after an inconsistent spell at West Ham.

Elsewhere, John Terry refuses to rule out the possibility of seeing out his career in the CSL and with his time at Chelsea likely to come to an end shortly he may look to cash in - we’ve currently got him priced at 8/1 to join any Chinese club.

Man United’s EFL Cup hero Zlatan Ibrahimovic has also been linked with a move to Asia, though considering his recent form he may opt to see out his contract under Mourinho and challenge for further honours next season. 

The Summer window could also see an influx of more high-profile managers.

With Arsene Wenger’s future unclear one CSL side are rumoured to have offered him a £30m-a-year deal.

This offer was rejected but whether or not it will be the last remains to be seen, and the Arsenal boss can be backed at 8/1 to join any Chinese club after departing the Emirates.

A total of £331m was spent by Chinese clubs during the winter window, so we anticipate plenty more business being done between June 19 and July 14.