Chelsea vs Newcastle betting tips, BuildABet, best bets and preview
Football betting tips: Monday Night Football
1pt Under 2.5 goals at 7/4 (Hills)
0.5pt Newcastle win at 13/5 (Unibet)
0.5pt Draw at 16/5 (Hills)
0.5pt e.w. Sven Botman to score first at 45/1 (Betfair/Paddy Power 1/3 1-5)
Good grief is it difficult to trust Chelsea this season.
A scattergun squad built by Todd Boehly’s billions has only managed to win three successive Premier League matches twice during almost two full season of his highly questionable ownership.
Even this season’s sequence, the first three-match winning streak since the halcyon early days of Graham Potter back in October 2022, came about during a favourable run of fixtures - Palace (H), Luton (A) and Fulham (H) - either side of the new year; none of the victories were by more than a single goal.
Taking them to win at odds-on quotes would be madness, especially against a strong opponent whose newfound pragmatism should come into its own at Stamford Bridge.
What are the best bets?
Even prior to their impressive 3-0 home win over Wolves last time out Newcastle had begun to rediscover their mojo, with the Magpies' only defeats in 2024 have come against Liverpool, Manchester City and Arsenal.
A surprising about-face given their previously imperious home, and woeful away form, has seen Eddie Howe’s side become more effective on the road.
When discounting the Premier League’s top three, it's four wins and a draw (which still ended with FA Cup progression via penalties) from their five away games this calendar year, scoring 12 goals and conceding four goals in the process.
The price just isn't there to take the visitors on the double chance, but splitting our stakes across a NEWCASTLE WIN and the DRAW is advised.
Newcastle's win over Wolves, when all three of their goals were scored on the break, was built upon a marked change in strategy.
Howe encouraged his team to cede possession in favour of counterattack, replicating the tactics deployed in wins at Fulham and Villa since the turn of the year.
This, combined with the fact that no top-flight team has had a greater ratio of home games (50%) go UNDER 2.5 GOALS than Chelsea this season, makes the 7/4 about that selection a nice bit of value.
Dangerous defenders
Newcastle's defenders have really come to the party lately, providing a remarkable six goals and six assists between them across their last eight fixtures.
SVEN BOTMAN has found the net twice already this season and assisted in last month's win at Nottingham Forest.
His mighty price of 45/1 with Betfair and Paddy Power TO SCORE FIRST is worth taking each way given the threat he and his defensive colleagues have been displaying during the Magpies' recent resurgence.
- Bruno Guimaraes to be shown a card
- Sven Botman to score or assist
- Newcastle to win
- Under 2.5 goals
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BRUNO GUIMARAES has 14 yellow cards this season and tends to save it up for games against 'big clubs'. He was booked in the reverse fixture, in all three meetings with Manchester City this term as well as against Liverpool, Arsenal, Villa, Dortmund and PSG.
Team news
Chelsea captain Ben Chilwell and fellow defender Levi Colwill are out, while stand-in skipper Conor Gallagher is also doubtful.
Reece James, Lesley Ugochukwu, Romeo Lavia, Christopher Nkunku, Benoit Badiashile, Wesley Fofana and Carney Chukwuemeka remain sidelined.
Newcastle are without the injured Kieran Trippier so Tino Livramento is likely to start at full-back, while winger Miguel Almiron should come in for Jacob Murphy.
Loanee Lewis Hall is ineligible against his parent club, meaning he joins Nick Pope, Sandro Tonali, Callum Wilson, Matt Targett and Joelinton on the sideline.
Predicted line-ups
Chelsea: Petrovic; Gusto, Disasi, Silva, Cucurella; Caicedo, Fernandez; Mudryk, Gallagher, Palmer; Jackson.
Newcastle: Dubravka; Trippier, Schar, Botman, Burn; Longstaff, Guimaraes, Willock; Almiron, Isak, Gordon.
Match facts
- Chelsea have lost just one of their 28 Premier League home games against Newcastle United (W20 D7), a 0-2 reverse in May 2012 under Roberto Di Matteo.
- After beating Chelsea 4-1 at St. James’ Park in November, Newcastle could complete their first league double over the Blues since 1986-87.
- Chelsea come into this match below Newcastle in the table for a fourth consecutive Premier League meeting between the sides, their longest such run since their first eight such games between 1993 and 1997.
- Across the last three seasons, the Blues have won just 11% of their league games against sides above them in the table (P27 W3 D8 L16).
- Chelsea won seven of their first eight Premier League games under Mauricio Pochettino when scoring first (D1), but are winless in their last three (D2 L1), drawing their last two games after netting the opener. The Blues haven’t scored first and failed to win in three consecutive league games since May 2016.
- Newcastle have scored 57 league goals this season, 16 more than they had at this stage last season (41). However, the Magpies have shipped 45 goals, 26 more than after 27 games in 2022-23 (19).
- Their matches are averaging 3.8 goals-per-game this season, the second-highest ratio by a team in a Premier League season, behind only Liverpool in 2013-14 (151 in 38 games, 4 per game).
- Newcastle have lost six of their last eight Premier League away games (W2) as many as their previous 27 beforehand (W11 D10 L6). Only Sheffield United (30) have conceded more goals away from home in the top flight this season (29), who have gone 10 away league games without a clean sheet (25 goals conceded).
- Newcastle manager Eddie Howe has won four of his last seven Premier League matches against Chelsea (D2 L1), and has a 43% win ratio against them overall (6 wins in 14). Among managers to face Chelsea more than 10 times in the competition, only Kenny Dalglish (77%) and Pep Guardiola (56%) have a better win ratio against the Blues.
- Newcastle’s Anthony Gordon has had a hand in 15 goals in his last 27 Premier League appearances (10 goals, 5 assists), five more than he managed in his first 80 games in the competition beforehand (7 goals, 3 assists). Gordon has also netted in his last two Premier League games against Chelsea, with no Magpies player ever netting in three in a row against the Blues in the competition.
- Cole Palmer has been directly involved in 17 goals in his last 18 Premier League appearances for Chelsea (10 goals, 7 assists). His assist against Brentford took him ahead of Arjen Robben in 2004-05 (16) to give him the most goals and assists combined by a player aged 21 or younger in a season in the competition for the Blues.
Odds correct 1445 GMT (08/03/24)
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