Champions League betting tips: Chelsea v Porto best bets and preview
Chelsea hold a 2-0 lead over Porto heading into the second leg, but Jake Pearson thinks this could be a thrilling game nonetheless.
Football betting tips: Chelsea v Porto (agg: 2-0)
1.5pts Both Teams To Score at Evens (SportNation, RedZone)
Ben Chilwell’s late goal in Portugal has made this a much easier task for Chelsea, two goals to the good and with the cushion of both those goals coming away from home, meaning Porto will need to score at least twice to avoid being knocked out of the Champions League at the quarter-final stage.
If Thomas Tuchel wanted a reaction from his team after their shock 5-2 defeat to West Brom a couple of weeks ago, then he has certainly received it, Chelsea producing a professional performance in the first leg, before putting Crystal Palace well and truly to the sword at the weekend.
Chelsea beat Roy Hodgson’s men 4-1, an impressive enough victory looking purely at the scoreline, but in reality, the winning margin could have been far higher for the Blues, with Kai Havertz in particular missing a couple of really good opportunities.
The match against Palace showed a distinct move away from the more pragmatic approach adopted since Tuchel’s appointment, with less emphasis on keeping the ball at all costs, and much more on creating goal scoring opportunities.
Have Chelsea changed their style of play?
Jorginho, in particular, was far more positive with his passing, something that has a huge bearing on the way Chelsea play. When the Italy international drops balls in behind the opposition, like he did against Palace, it gives the opposing defence far more to think about.
Defending against possession-based team who slowly move the ball from one side of the pitch is far easier than defending against a team that are comfortable on the ball, but can also turn you around and get you running towards your own goal seemingly at will.
It will be interesting to see how Tuchel approaches this game; does he try and protect the 2-0 lead Chelsea worked so hard for in Portugal, or does he allow his players to kick on and try and score more goals?
There does seem to have been a mentality shift in Chelsea since the West Brom match, with Tuchel realising that switching the style of play between possession-based and direct football will bear far more fruit than simply protecting the ball.
Chelsea don’t need to force the issue at Stamford Bridge, but they pose a serious threat with Jorginho’s clever passing, particularly considering the pace of the Blues' forward players, and it is difficult to see Porto not getting caught as they throw men forward in search of required goals.
All or nothing for Porto?
Porto need to score, and while it is unlikely they will get the required minimum of two goals needed to avoid exiting the competition, it is by no means a long shot that they will find the net at least once.
Chelsea in the first leg of this fixture, and Manchester City in the group stage, are the only teams to have stopped Porto from scoring in the Champions League this season, with Sergio Conceicao’s side scoring four times across their two-legged round of 16 fixture with Juventus recently.
In the Portuguese league, only Nacional have seen a higher percentage of matches in which both teams have scored, while Porto have failed to score in just 8% of their league fixtures this term.
Given the way this game is poised – Porto needing to score at least two, and Chelsea posing a huge threat on the counter – backing BOTH TEAMS TO SOCRE is a logical selection.
There seems to be a difference of opinion between the bookmakers on this one as well, with a lot of firms having this selection priced up as the favourite, but a couple of bookies pricing it up as the outsider.
With that in mind, anything around even money for this bet appeals as value.
Chelsea v Porto best bets and score prediction
- 1.5pts Both Teams To Score at Evens (SportNation, RedZone)
Score prediction: Chelsea 1-1 Porto (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Odds correct at 1200 BST (12/04/21)
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