Chelsea v Burnley free betting tips: Best bets and Premier League preview
Thomas Tuchel's spell at Chelsea began with a 0-0 draw but Tom Carnduff is backing them to return to winning ways as they face Burnley.
Football betting tips: Premier League
1pt Kai Havertz to score anytime at 14/5
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Chelsea v Burnley
- 12:00 GMT on BT Sport 1
- Match odds: Home 1/3 | Draw 4/1 | Away 17/2
Thomas Tuchel's Chelsea spell began in pretty unspectacular fashion with a 0-0 home draw with Wolves. It is easy to criticise but he arrived 24 hours before the game and held one training session with the team. We did see that they were taking his ideas on board in that game and the 898 passes shows that they do want to dominate the ball and be on the front foot throughout.
We also can't read too much into the starting line-up. "The choice was totally unfair because how can I make a choice with one training session where everybody was really focused and really open to all the things we trained?," he said before the game. "It’s maybe the most unfair line-up we have ever done because there is no reason to give to players to not be in the line-up."
Tuchel would also admit that he went for a 'bit more experience' due to his lack of time at the club and we can expect some changes to be made here. Timo Werner could be involved, and getting the best out of him will be towards the top of Tuchel's priority list, as will Kai Havertz, who has seen mixed performances since his switch from Bayer Leverkusen.
It's tough to fully judge on 90 minutes, but Havertz looked to have a bit more confidence about him in the draw with Wolves. His three shots was a season high, while he should have scored the winner had his late header not been diverted away by a Wolves man - it was one certainly heading for the back of the net.
He finished the game with an Expected Goals figure of 0.24 which is a positive in an otherwise fairly uneventful game, especially when his average so far has been 0.10 per game. We saw Havertz charge forward with the ball and link the play, the 67 total passes was the second-highest of the campaign. The attacking midfielder usually sees anywhere between 30 and 50 in this area when in his natural position.
Given that performance against Wolves, there is appeal in the 14/5 general price on Havertz getting a goal anytime in this game. While Burnley have done well in recent weeks, topped by a 1-0 win away at Liverpool, Chelsea typically secure victory in this fixture.
Havertz's 18 goals last season and 20 the campaign prior shows his ability to strike, even with a few of those coming from the centre forward role. Whether he remains in attacking midfield or is pushed out on the wing, lining up alongside Werner and Christian Pulisic as part of a forward trio, he does have an eye for goal and will succeed in the right environment. Tuchel can create that for him.
It will be interesting to see how the Tuchel regime unfolds at Chelsea, because they do have the players to play the way he wants to. He will face a battle to try and work out how to fit everyone into a top-heavy side but some will miss out, such is the nature of the Blues' summer business. Havertz is someone who should get regular football from now on though.
It does feel like Tuchel may already be fighting a losing battle and that is basically for the reason that he replaced Frank Lampard. His post-match comment of '16 recoveries in the last third is proof of energy' was typically met with comments shooting down his use of statistics rather than something more simple like 'passion', which is, of course, the established currency in English football.
But the Wolves showing was encouraging in terms of starting to get the ideas into this group of players. As we also saw, it wasn't the ideal XI and a few more days working with the team will give him a clearer image of his side for this game. Havertz should feature and it could be the beginning of a strong second-half of the campaign for the German international.
Score prediction: Chelsea 2-0 Burnley (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)
Opta facts
- Chelsea have lost one of their 13 Premier League games against Burnley (W9 D3), losing 2-3 on the opening day of the 2017-18 season at Stamford Bridge as reigning champions.
- Burnley have only won six points in 13 Premier League matches against Chelsea (W1 D3) but five of those six have been earned at Stamford Bridge, via a win (3-2 in 2017/18) and two draws (1-1 in 2014/15 and 2-2 in 2018/19).
- None of the 13 Premier League meetings between Chelsea and Burnley have been goalless at half-time – this is the only Premier League fixture played more than 10 times to see a goal scored in the first half of each meeting.
- Chelsea netted 29 goals in their first 14 Premier League games this season (2.1 per game), but have scored just four in their subsequent six (0.7 per game). The Blues haven’t netted more than once in these six games, last having a longer league run of failing to score at least twice between October-December 2015 (7).
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