Liam Kelly previews Chelsea's hosting of Brighton at Stamford Bridge, expecting a tighter match-up than the prices suggest.
Football betting tips: Premier League
2pts Under 2.5 Goals at 19/20 (Unibet)
Chelsea kept their dwindling title hopes alive with a come-from-behind win against Aston Villa on Boxing Day, a workmanlike performance from a team struggling with availability and form.
Opponents Brighton also picked up three points, beating Brentford 2-0 in a manner synonymous with the Seagulls under Graham Potter (xG: BHA 0.85 - 0.97 BRE).
Kick-off time: 19:30 GMT, Wednesday
TV Channel: Amazon Prime Video
Chelsea 4/11 | Draw 18/5 | Brighton 8/1
The 3-1 victory at Villa Park (xG: AVL 0.52 - 2.68 CHE) appeared to be heading towards a low-scoring affair before Reece James' own goal, and there is reason to believe that this match-up might pay out on that early promise.
After all, Brighton have been one of the better defensive teams in the league since Potter took charge, much more solid than a Villa side that were limiting Chelsea well until they took a surprise lead.
Brighton are averaging 1.21 expected goals against (xGA) per game this season, a number only bested by the Manchester City, Liverpool and Chelsea.
The return of Romelu Lukaku is an obvious threat to the selection — UNDER 2.5 GOALS — but the Blues have been unconvincing for some time now.
They struggled to break down a resolute Wolves defence last week, creating only 0.85 xG in the 0-0 draw, and have gained just seven points in their last five Premier League fixtures.
Chelsea are often tight defensively, though, so Brighton's underperforming attack isn't likely to cause too many problems.
Potter and Thomas Tuchel have previous, too, with Brighton holding Chelsea to their second-lowest xG total under the German last season — a 0-0 draw at Stamford Bridge (xG: CHE 0.85 - 0.53 BHA).
All of the above makes the slight odds-on available (19/20) to back two goals or fewer appealing. Infogol's model believes the price should be closer to 8/11, and I tend to agree.
It's best to stick with the consistency that Brighton's defensive unit have displayed than the current unpredictability of Chelsea just now, even though they're at home.
Chelsea v Brighton best bets and score prediction
- 2pts Under 2.5 Goals at 19/20 (Unibet)
Score prediction: Chelsea 1-0 Brighton (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)
Odds correct at 1650 GMT (27/12/21)
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