Sky Bet Championship play-offs: Second leg previews
Nick Hext is keeping faith with Reading as he previews this week's second legs of the Sky Bet Championship play-off semi-finals.
Recommended bets: Championship play-offs
1pt Reading to beat Fulham at 9/4 - price remains too big for the Royals to get the victory
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Sheffield Wednesday v Huddersfield Town (Wednesday, 1945 BST, Sky Sports 3)
I thought Huddersfield would edge the first leg of their Sky Bet Championship play-off semi-final against Sheffield Wednesday but it wasn’t to be for the Terriers on Sunday afternoon.
Huddersfield had the better of proceedings at the John Smith’s Stadium but the Owls remained resolute and we go to Hillsborough on Wednesday night with the tie waiting for its first goal.
Wednesday are the odds-on favourites to reach Wembley but I have a sneaky suspicion that a surprise is on the cards.
Chances were at an absolute premium in the first leg, Izzy Brown clipping the bar for Huddersfield the closest that either side came to a breakthrough, and I expect this to be another tight contest.
I’m backing Terriers boss David Wagner to continue his fine first full season in English football by getting his tactics spot on to frustrate the Owls’ array of attacking talent.
The return of first-choice goalkeeper Danny Ward is another boost for Huddersfield and they should benefit from the majority of the pressure being on Wednesday at Hillsborough.
The Owls have lost three of their last eight matches on their own turf, including against fellow play-off semi-finalists Reading and Fulham during the run-in, so there must be value in Huddersfield as the big outsiders in this contest.
Wagner rested players once the Terriers’ play-off place was confirmed and I was pleased to see how sharp they looked on Sunday, with rustiness being my main concern ahead of the opening leg.
Huddersfield can be backed at 23/15 to qualify for the final and that’s going to provide my interest for the return match in this tie.
The price for the Terriers to get to Wembley has drifted out since the first leg but that was their best performance in weeks and provided me with more reasons to back Wagner’s side than oppose them.
Carlos Carvalhal’s Wednesday have a gluttony of attacking options but I’m not convinced he knows how best to use them and that could see the game stretched if Huddersfield can get the advantage.
It might not be a classic but the visitors have the nous to get one step closer to the big prize of promotion.
Verdict: Sheffield Wednesday 0-1 Huddersfield Town (Agg: 0-1)
Opta facts:
Sheffield Wednesday are now unbeaten in eight matches against Huddersfield (W5 D3) in all competitions.
Huddersfield have now failed to score a goal in all three matches (including play-offs) against the Owls this season. Indeed, the Terriers have only managed two goals in their last eight meetings with the Owls.
Sheffield Wednesday have won both of their previous play-off games at Hillsborough without conceding a goal – 1-0 v Brentford (2005) and 2-0 v Brighton (2016).
The Terriers have lost just one of their last five play-off fixtures played away from home (exc. neutral venue), winning three (D1).
The team in fourth place has won the Championship play-offs in two of the last three campaigns (Hull in 2015/16 & QPR in 2013/14); this after a run 15 years without promotion for the fourth placed side.
Wednesday have reached the final of both play-off campaigns they’ve played in (4-2 AET v Hartlepool in League One 2004/05, lost v Hull in Championship 2015/16 final).
Huddersfield have lost six of their last 11 matches in all competitions (W3 D2).
Reading v Fulham (Tuesday, 1945 BST, Sky Sports 3)
I’ve secured profits all season by backing Reading at prices I’ve considered too big and I can’t shake off my belief in the Royals just yet.
I took a slice of the 5/1 available for Reading to win the first leg of their Sky Bet Championship play-off semi-final at Fulham on Saturday evening but, despite the Royals netting first, a 1-1 draw failed to secure the dividends for followers of these tips.
Fulham did dominate plenty of the play at Craven Cottage but another impressive tactical approach from Jaap Stam secured the draw, even with 10 men after Paul McShane’s dismissal, and that leaves all to play for in Tuesday night’s return game.
Reading have been priced up by the bookies at over 2/1 to get the win they need for a place at Wembley and those odds have to be worth an interest.
The Royals’ home record has made appeal to me throughout the season. They’ve won eight and drawn two of their last 10 games at the Madejski Stadium and their record against top half sides on their own turf comes in at eight wins and three draws.
That’s a fantastic record in anybody’s book and I’ve felt all term that the Royals have been underestimated as they went under the radar to finish in third.
I had expected Fulham to have drifted more in the odds for this return leg but they haven’t so my prognosis ahead of the opening encounter remains intact that the prices just aren’t as close as they should be.
The Cottagers claimed a number of notable away wins during the run-in but they’ve suffered defeats at Derby, Birmingham and Reading, a 1-0 victory for Stam’s side in January, during 2017 to show that they are far from invincible.
Tom Cairney, Fulham’s playmaker, says he expects Tuesday night’s game to be more open.
I disagree. McShane’s absence for Reading is a blow and the potential absence of Jordan Obita a concern but I’m sure the last thing that Stam is going to do is send his side out in a gung-ho manner.
There won’t be much in this game but I have to keep faith in Reading after their home form came good for followers of these tips throughout the end of the season.
Verdict: Reading 1-0 Fulham (Agg: 2-1)
Opta facts:
Reading are unbeaten in their last four home matches against Fulham (W2 D2) in all competitions.
The Royals have lost just two of their last 10 games (including play-offs), winning seven (D1 L2).
Reading have won just once in five home play-off matches, failing to score on four occasions (D2 L2).
Fulham have lost both previous away games in the play-offs without netting a single goal – 0-1 v Bristol Rovers (1989) and 0-1 v Grimsby Town (1998).
After his first leg goal at Craven Cottage, no Championship midfielder has been involved in more goals this season (including play-offs) than Tom Cairney (23, 13 goals, 10 assists).
The team that finished sixth in the Championship has won promotion via the play-offs just once in the last 11 seasons – Blackpool in 2009/10.
The Royals will be hoping to make it to their first play-off final since 2010/11; Reading have failed to win promotion from all five of their previous play-off campaigns.
The Cottagers have never scored more than one goal in a play-off match. In fact, Tom Cairney’s strike in the first leg was just their second goal in five play-off matches.
Posted at 2050 BST on 15/05/17.
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