Sky Bet Championship 2020/21: Outright preview with best bets for promotion and relegation
The 2020/21 Sky Bet Championship begins on September 11 and Tom Carnduff has a 50/1 selection for the winner in his outright preview.
Recommended bets
1pt e.w. Barnsley to win the Sky Bet Championship at 50/1 (1/4 1,2,3)
4pts Sheffield Wednesday to be relegated at 9/4
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Even by the standards of the Sky Bet Championship, the final day of the 2019/20 provided twists and turns that nobody was expecting.
A drama-filled day still left relegation places to decide while three teams battled for the one automatic promotion spot remaining. All three failed to win and West Brom held on for a Premier League return.
Then there was the play-offs. Nottingham Forest seemed all-but-certain to finish in the top-six but saw a six-goal swing combined with other results go against them and they finished seventh. Brentford, who missed out on second place, were beaten by Fulham in the final.
The Bees start the season as 7/1 second-favourites behind Norwich and their short price is justified based on their showings across the course of the campaign. Watford are the other team to join the duo as being the only options available below 10/1.
The one thing that is striking about the 2020/21 Championship season is just how open the division is. Norwich may be fancied but there remain questions about how they bounce back following such a poor season which saw them crash out of the top-flight without putting up a fight.
Then there's Watford, who once again have changed manager and Bournemouth, who now begin to adjust to life without long-term manager Eddie Howe. Fulham may have done it last season, but it's incredibly difficult to bounce back to the Premier League at the first time of asking; never mind picking up the title on the way.
That's not to say it's impossible and it has been done before. The nature of the teams coming down though leads to reluctance to take the short(ish) prices on offer to finish top of the table. Before Fulham achieved success at Wembley, Newcastle were the last team to bounce back at the first time of asking in 2017.
The play-offs have been a popular route with West Ham, QPR and Norwich all doing so in the last ten years. Burnley and Newcastle were different in that they won the title; it's not something that happens as often as the current odds would suggest.
In what could be such an open division, and based on what we saw in the second part of last season, it's worth backing an outsider in BARNSLEY to upset the odds at what appear to be far too generous odds of 50/1.
They won't be a selection that everyone would otherwise rush to back but the impact of Gerhard Struber during his time at the club has been significant. This is a head coach who inherited a side who were far from competitive; Barnsley had won just one of their first 16 games before he was appointed. That came on the opening day against Fulham.
The 2019/20 table only including the games that Struber was in charge for would have Barnsley sitting 13th, seven points off the top-six. It's the context of those performances though that needs to be focused on and how they managed to pick up 40 points in 30 games; they won just nine points from the 16 fixtures prior.
Before Struber, Barnsley were averaging 0.56 points per game in the Championship. Following his arrival, the average shot up to 1.33. Essentially, Barnsley were heading for a points tally of 26 before they opted to bring Struber to the club; they finished with 49 and avoided the drop.
That change looks impressive enough without considering the lack of a pre-season to work with and get to know his squad.
It's not exactly been a busy window so far for the Tykes but that's a theme throughout English football in this window. Teams have longer to bring in recruits and nobody in the league will be throwing around cash with the aim of getting into the Premier League.
Barnsley used the January transfer window to bring in three new faces from Austria and we can count that window as playing a big part in their rebuild. In fact, a look at the table following the window closing at the end of January until the conclusion of the season would have Barnsley in ninth - two points off West Brom who were sixth in that period.
Their style of play is eye-catching and it earned plaudits from some of the best head coaches in the league. "They did everything," Leeds boss Marcelo Bielsa said after they managed to grind out a 1-0 win in July.
"They used all their options to modify the result. We were thinking all the time about how to try to control this. When we recover the ball, we lost it very quickly. In the second half we spent a lot of time in defence.
"Honestly, I want to recognise the work of our opponent today because they tried, in all the possible ways, possibly they deserved a different result."
Barnsley should have scored that day and it was a performance that perhaps accurately reflected their season under Struber. They were creating the opportunities but lacked someone to convert them. That, as demonstrated with Leeds under Bielsa, is something that gets better over time.
Barnsley's Expected Goals For (xGF) figure stood at 59.5 when they actually scored 49. They severely underachieved on the basis of chances created and a few extra goals would have seen them out of relegation trouble. It's also worth remembering that if Struber had been there from the start of the season, and had 16 extra games, that expected figure would have been a lot higher.
What an interview this is. Gerhard Struber has done wonderful things with Barnsley this season. pic.twitter.com/96nFgoC1Nx
— Tom Carnduff (@TomC_22) July 22, 2020
In fact, their Expected Goals For figure put them 11th in the table; that was better than Cardiff, Nottingham Forest and Millwall who were all in the play-off picture. Again, that is a significant achievement considering how poor they were during the first third of the campaign.
It's also worth noting their Expected Goals rate from open play was the eighth-best in the Championship. The 60.83 figure was better than the 60.72 posted by West Brom. If chance conversion improves during the course of the new season then they are on to a winner.
There's been the development from a tactical perspective but it shouldn't be underestimated just how important a season of Championship football will have been for such a young squad.
A look at the youngest matchday squads last season shows how Barnsley targeted young talents in previous transfer windows. Of the 50 youngest starting line-ups during the 2018/19 campaign, 45 of them belonged to Barnsley.
Of course there needs to be a balance between youth and experience and Struber has tried to address that with his additions in the transfer window. His spell at the club has seen three permanent signings all of which were above the age of 25.
But last season, in which they survived when the odds said they wouldn't, will be huge as the team continues their development. Experienced additions alongside players who have experienced second tier football provides a better mix than the squad they possessed at the beginning of the 19/20 campaign.
As with any outright selection, there's always a risk that it can go wrong and Barnsley, being such big outsiders, may not end up mounting that charge to the title.
But what we've seen from this side under Struber, and the pure passion that he has for the group to succeed, may be the recipe to successfully battle at the other end of the table. He has put his own style on this team and they may well enjoy a season to remember.
At the other end of the table, SHEFFIELD WEDNESDAY's season already looks like a battle as they begin with a 12-point deduction.
That comes after an independent panel found them to have breached Profitability and Sustainability rules and they will face a deduction for the new campaign, although some claimed that it should have been applied to the final standings last season.
It ended up being a miserable season for the Owls who were battling in the top-six at the beginning of 2020. They appeared to be a team who may be heading for the Premier League but when things started going wrong they struggled to come up with the answers.
They ended up finishing 16th, seven points above the drop zone, but they can thank their showings in the first-half of the campaign for saving their status by the end of it.
The second-half of the season table had Wednesday in 23rd, only Birmingham managed to pick up fewer points across the 23 games. Garry Monk's side only managed four wins with 17 points from a possible 69. The end of the season couldn't have come quick enough.
The problem is that this summer has been one of change, which was perhaps needed, but it's left the squad lacking in some areas. Izzy Brown has come in on loan from Chelsea while centre-back Chey Dunkley arrived from Wigan. Fisayo Dele-Bashiru, a young midfielder from Manchester City, has also made the switch to Hillsborough.
At the time of writing, Jordan Rhodes is the only recognised senior striker; that feels remarkable considering they have always had a wealth of choice in that part of the pitch across the past few seasons.
It's a thin squad and the -12 situation is made even tougher because of it. They don't have a huge chance of bringing in some big signings either and the 2020/21 campaign seems like one of struggle for Monk's men.
Wednesday are second-favourites at a price of 9/4 for the drop and that price seems generous given the circumstances surrounding the team before the season has begun. They already need to find four wins just to reach zero points and then it's trying to make up any gap that they have been left with by that stage.
They may spring a surprise and survive but that form during the second part of the 2019/20 season doesn't fill you with confidence. A replication of those results over 46 games, combined with the deduction, would leave the Owls on 22 points. They really need to do something special to avoid League One football returning to South Yorkshire.
Odds correct at 1800 BST (01/09/20)
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