Championship betting tips: Outright preview and best bets for 22-23 season
After returning +6.5pts profit in last season's Championship outright preview, Jake Osgathorpe returns to select his best bets from the second tier this season.
Football betting tips: Championship outright
5pts Sheffield United to finish in the top six at 6/5 (bet365, Betway)
5pts Middlesbrough to finish in the top six at 6/5 (Boylesports, Betway)
4pts Norwich to be promoted at 7/4 (General)
4pts Luton to finish in the top half at 5/4 (Unibet)
1pt Huddersfield to be relegated at 9/1 (Boylesports)
The Sky Bet Championship was again a rollercoaster ride last season at both the top and bottom, and there is no reason to think this new campaign will be any different.
Last term, two of the relegated Premier League clubs claimed automatic promotion, while two of the three promoted teams from Sky Bet League One survived.
The riches of the Premier League in comparison to the rest of the footballing pyramid means it's highly likely that at least one team relegated from the top tier last season will bounce straight back up.
Teams who drop down a division are finding it increasingly easier to keep their squads together thanks to the parachute payments, but, this time around, only one team has a manager in place who has plenty of experience and success at this level.
Sky Bet Championship 22/23 winner odds (via Sky Bet)
- 4/1 - Norwich
- 11/2 - Watford
- 7/1 - Sheff Utd, Middlesbrough
- 8/1 - West Brom
- 9/1 - Burnley
- 20/1 - Swansea
Odds correct as of 1730 (16/07/22)
I am talking about the ultimate yo-yo club Norwich, who maintained the services of Dean Smith despite relegation.
Burnley have moved in a different direction with the inexperienced Vincent Kompany, while Watford appointed Rob Edwards as their new coach - the man who led Forest Green to the Sky Bet League Two title last season, but is lacking experience higher up the ladder.
So, unsurprisingly, of the three relegated sides, Norwich make most appeal to bounce straight back, and they are our first bet of this preview.
The Canaries head both the 'To Win the League' and 'To be Promoted' betting, and it's the latter where we head, with NORWICH TO BE PROMOTED looking too big at 7/4.
Dean Smith has had plenty of success in the EFL, last winning promotion with Aston Villa via the play-offs in 2018/19, so Norwich really couldn't have a better manager overseeing things.
Add to this the fact that the Canaries boast a squad that is practically untouched from their admittedly poor Premier League campaign, and they are rightly the team to beat.
In fact, their squad is virtually the same as that which won the title in 20/21, with the likes of Max Aarons, Grant Hanley, Todd Cantwell, Kieran Dowell, Kenny Mclean and of course Teemu Pukki.
Norwich thrive at this level, winning the league title the last two times they have been in the Championship, and I expect similar this term, but the smart play is to back them to be promoted rather than to win the league at 6/1 (e/w 3 places 1/4 odds).
If they win the league then it's quids in on both selections, but if they were to finish second we get paid out at a 7/4 shot rather than 6/4.
Plus, if Smith's side finish fourth, fifth or sixth and go up through the play-offs - as his Aston Villa team did - then we are covered with 'promotion' where the places on offer in the outright don't cover us.
In terms of the very top of the table, that's me done for this outright, but there are two corkers in the top six betting.
Who will finish in the Championship top six?
Along with Norwich, I expect Burnley and Watford to be in and amongst things this season, as well as West Brom - now led by Steve Bruce - but the value lies in Chris Wilder's Middlesbrough and his former side Sheffield United in the top six market.
Boro were impressive after Wilder took charge in November, ranking fifth in the league in terms of expected points (xP) and sixth in terms of expected goal difference (xGD).
That basically tells us that they were one of the best six teams in the Championship last season after the managerial change, and three of the teams above them were promoted.
Their process was excellent, averaging 1.55 xGF and 1.08 xGA per game, and if that same level is maintained then we can expect a strong campaign.
I'm a huge fan of Wilder as a coach, and their squad looks solid for this level with some interesting signings. More could follow should the sale of Djed Spence go through, which will allow them to enhance the squad further, and the 6/5 available for MIDDLESBROUGH TO FINISH IN THE TOP SIX just simply looks too big.
The same goes for our second top six selection Sheff Utd, who, at the same price, scream value.
As with Boro last season, Sheffield United improved markedly for a managerial change in November, with Paul Heckingbottom coming in, and their underlying numbers were impressive after he took charge.
They were close to promotion, losing to eventual play-off winners Nottingham Forest in the semi-finals, and similar can be expected this season.
The squad has remained more or less the same, and that squad ranked third best in the league in terms of xP after Heckingbottom took over, and fourth best in xGD.
Only the three promoted teams out-performed them from an xG process standpoint, highlighting the levels they hit.
A repeat of their process (1.83 xGF, 1.16 xGA per game) would almost certainly see them in the mix for automatic promotion, but we can back them at odds against TO FINISH IN THE TOP SIX with a lot more security than automatic promotion.
I think the top six in the betting all deserve to be shorter in this market, with a gap between them and the rest in my opinion.
Hatters in top half again
One team that were consistently underrated last season was LUTON, and that appears the case again this term.
Nathan Jones' side finished sixth last season and were beaten play-off semi-finalists, and their lofty position was no fluke as they ranked as the seventh best team in the league based on xP.
A team who racked up 75 points last term, posted a stellar xG process (1.39 xGF, 1.14 xGA per game) and have kept their manager and squad together while adding quality are priced at 5/4 for a TOP HALF FINISH.
The bookies have the Hatters priced as though they are the 16th best team in the league, with the likes of Sunderland, QPR, Blackburn and Coventry all shorter in this market.
I rate Luton better than all of those, and probably have them around 8th or 9th in my predicted table - Infogol has them 9th.
Again, they look to be being underestimated, which means we can take advantage.
Who will be relegated from the Championship?
I'll admit, I got the Championship relegation market completely wrong last season when putting up Bristol City and Huddersfield.
Derby being excluded from the prices made things difficult on that occasion, Barnsley's collapse was unexpected and Peterborough were too short to back, so I threw a few darts.
That is exactly what I am doing again this season, and I clearly haven't learnt my lesson, as I am again backing HUDDERSFIELD TO BE RELEGATED to small stakes.
At the head to the market, there are question marks around Reading in terms of a possible points deduction, while Rotherham are the Championship-League One version of Norwich in terms of yo-yoing - both are too short in my opinion.
Birmingham are another that have major question marks around them, with major issues on and off the field, but they have been well-found already in the relegation market - as short as 13/8 in places.
Bristol City hold some appeal at around 4/1, but at a whopping 9/1, Huddersfield are the only selection that piques my interest in this market.
Yes, the Terriers finished third last season and were beaten play-off finalists, but they overperformed massively based on underlying numbers, ranking only 12th on xP.
Granted, it's a long way from an expected finish of 12th to relegation, but after the club parted company with manager Carlos Corberan, who masterminded their surprising finish last term, concerns are rightly raised.
The Terriers appointed Danny Schofield as his successor, a man whose only previous experience managing has come while being caretaker boss of Huddersfield for short stints.
That could be a problem, as could an exodus of key players, with Harry Toffolo and Lewis O'Brien heavily linked with Premier League moves this summer.
All in all, I just think the price is too big for a team who could crash after the intense surprising highs of last season, similar to what happened to Barnsley last season.
9/1 is just too big not to chance, with Huddersfield having all the hallmarks of a team that could be dysfunctional in 22/23.
Sky Bet Championship 22/23 Outright best bets
- 5pts Sheffield United to finish in the top six at 6/5 (bet365, Betway)
- 5pts Middlesbrough to finish in the top six at 6/5 (Boylesports, Betway)
- 4pts Norwich to be promoted at 7/4 (General)
- 4pts Luton to finish in the top half at 5/4 (Unibet
- 1pt Huddersfield to be relegated at 9/1 (Boylesports)
Odds correct at 1900 (16/07/22)
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