Champions League preview and tips
Tim Clement fancies Atletico and Real Madrid to provide profits in Tuesday's Champions League action.
Recommended bets:
1pt double Atletico to win to nil and Real to win and both teams to score at 11.90/1 - see above
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Leicester v Atletico Madrid (1945 BST, BT Sport 2)
It may not be pretty and it might not be the result most of us want, but pragmatism tells us that Atletico Madrid should end Leicester’s dream Champions League run on Tuesday night.
The first leg was a Diego Simeone classic, keeping the opponents at arm’s length, with Jan Oblak not facing a single shot, while gradually probing their backline, patiently waiting for that crucial mistake.
As it turned out the mistake came from the referee but the result was no less of a triumph for the tactical genius of Simeone, who has mastered the art of taking minimal risks to extract optimal results.
The nature of their approach provides us with reoccurring value from a betting perspective, with their trend of keeping clean sheets in victories undeniable.
Indeed, 22 of their 30 wins this season have come without conceding, while they’ve now kept clean sheets in six of their nine Champions League matches.
Despite clean sheets occurring in 73 per cent of their triumphs this season, the algorithm used by bookmakers to churn out sub-markets means that we still get double the odds on Atletico winning to nil rather than just winning.
The trend runs deeper as well, with 29 of last season’s 37 victories in all competitions being to nil, that’s a 78 per cent trend but one the bookmakers continue to ignore, with a 12/5 being widely available compared to the 11/10 for Atletico just to win the match.
Obviously there are two teams involved on Tuesday night and the other one made a mockery of the longest of odds last season in their 5,000/1 Premier League triumph.
The Foxes are 5/1 to overturn the first-leg deficit, a slight drift from their price of 9/2 ahead of the trip to the Vicente Calderon, while 14/5 on them just to win on the night will tempt neutrals keen to get behind the Foxes.
Their upturn under Craig Shakespeare has certainly been impressive but you just wonder whether his back-to-basics approach is really going to trouble Atletico.
It was the worst possible draw in many ways, with Simeone’s counter-attacking tactics mirroring the Foxes, who are at their most dangerous against sides who leave themselves vulnerable on the break.
Atletico’s style is particularly troubling for Jamie Vardy, who is the master of attacking space. He’ll beat Diego Godin in a foot race every time but he simply won’t get the chance to isolate the veteran defender as Simeone’s side never overcommit.
They can also control games and take the tempo out of them, something which will be key on Tuesday as the Leicester players look to feed off the frenetic atmosphere at the King Power Stadium.
Only a fool would write Leicester off after what they’ve achieved but it would be another logic-defying feat if they were to see off Simeone’s stringent side and on this occasion, they should be taken on.
Prediction: Leicester 0-2 Atletico Madrid
Opta facts:
o Leicester City have won all four of their Champions League home games this season (6 goals scored, 1 conceded).
o Leicester are the lowest scoring side in the Champions League among the eight teams left in this season’s competition (10 goals in 9 games). 50% of their goals have come from set-piece.
o In fact, Leicester City didn’t have a single shot on target in the first leg at the Caldéron.
o Atlético Madrid’s only previous away Champions League game against an English side under Diego Simeone saw them beat Chelsea 3-1 at Stamford Bridge in April 2014.
o Atlético Madrid have won seven of their nine Champions League games this season (D1 L1). No team has collected more victories.
o Atlético Madrid have kept 27 clean sheets in 45 Champions League games under Diego Simeone since 2013/14 (60%)
Real Madrid v Bayern Munich (1945 BST, BT Sport 3)
The contrasts of the two Madrid giants could not be greater but Real are also defending a single-goal lead as they bring Bayern back to the Bernabeu.
While Atletico chase their maiden Champions League triumph after finish runners up in two of the last three seasons, their neighbours are typically going for more glory as they look to become the first side to defend the trophy in its modern form.
Be it due to the weight of history or the nature of their all-too-often last gasp-triumphs this season, the defending champions have been underestimated by the bookmakers throughout their Champions League campaign.
Indeed, it is only now former favourites Barcelona face another mammoth task in qualifying that they have been installed at the head of the betting.
Bayern were also ahead in the market before the first leg, which they were also odds-on favourites to win, but are now 9/4 just to qualify and around 19/10 to win on the night.
That puts Real Madrid at 13/10 for the victory, meaning they’re longer than Bayern were at home despite beating Carlo Ancelotti’s men less than a week ago.
Admittedly the fact that a draw is enough to send them through is a factor, but they are far from the sort of side to sit in and grind out a stalemate, bringing us back to the contrasts with Atletico.
If Simeone’s side are masters of the smash and grab, Real are champions of the all-out gun fight, knowing they can outscore their opponents despite their defensive vulnerabilities.
Sergio Ramos personifies Real in many ways and his ability to score late winners in games which they’ve looked certain to lose typifies their season.
The centre-back has scored 10 goals in all competitions, half of which have come after the 80th minute, but even more remarkably he’s only helped his side keep three clean sheets all season from 22 starts.
Indeed, Real Madrid have kept just eight clean sheets in LaLiga despite leading the table while they’re yet to record a single one in Europe.
In all competitions they’ve won 33 games but kept just 10 clean sheets, a mere 30 per cent, making BetStars’ 13/5 on them to win and both teams to score carry great appeal.
So in the Madrid contrasts we finally find a similarity: both sides conform to common trends to provide us with sound mathematical reasoning to back them in the sub-markets.
Like Atletico, Real also look worth siding with, having been able to rest their forward line in a 3-2 win at Sporting Gijon on Saturday, while a strong Bayern side battled out a goalless draw at Bayer Leverkusen.
Robert Lewandowski’s expected return adds to the case for both teams to score, a 2/5 shot with most, so adding that to a Real Madrid victory for double the odds looks a wise investment.
Prediction: Real Madrid 3-2 Bayern Munich
Opta Facts:
o Since 2010/11, Real Madrid have won 34 of their 40 Champions League games at Santiago Bernabeu (D4 L2). Their two defeats during that time came against Barcelona in April 2011 (0-2) and Schalke in March 2015 (3-4).
o Real Madrid have also never failed to score in their last 34 Champions League home games, longest ever run in the competition. Barcelona were the last team to leave the Bernabeu with a clean sheet (2-0 in April 2011).
o Real Madrid have scored minimum two goals in each of their nine Champions League games this season. However, they have also failed to keep a single clean sheet in those nine games.
o Real Madrid have won all three of their knockout games in this season’s Champions League despite conceding the opening goal in each of them.
o Bayern Munich conceded 12 shots on target in the first leg against Real, more than in any other Champions League game since Opta analysis began on the competition in 2003/04.
o Bayern Munich have only kept one clean sheet in their last eight Champions League games.
o Sergio Ramos’ last six goals in the Champions League have all been scored in the knockout stages. If he plays, it will be his 100th game in the competition.
Posted at 1550 BST on 17/04/17.
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