Champions League betting tips: Wednesday preview
Our in-depth betting previews for Wednesday night's Champions League quarter-finals, including Atletico Madrid v Leicester and the rearranged clash between Dortmund and Monaco.
Recommended bets: Wednesday Champions League
Borussia Dortmund v Monaco (1745 BST)
*Preview added following the match's rescheduling from Tuesday to Wednesday*
Monaco’s reward for getting the better of Manchester City in the last 16 of the Champions League is a quarter-final against Bundesliga heavyweights Borussia Dortmund.
I’m surprised to see the Ligue 1 leaders as big outsiders to progress from a tie in which both sides will be fancying their chances of qualifying.
As you would expect at this stage of the Champions League, both sides are in good form with Monaco only suffering two defeats in their last 22 outings.
The 4-1 defeat against PSG in the French League Cup final will still be hurting Leonardo’s Jardim’s men but they’ve recovered with back-to-back victories to get back on track.
Monaco’s strength is clearly in attack - they scored six goals when getting through against Manchester City on away goals after drawing 6-6 on aggregate.
Jardim’s side managed three of those goals when losing 5-3 at the Etihad Stadium but they have collected wins on the road at Villarreal (in qualifying) and Tottenham during their march to the last eight.
However, this is a much tougher task for Monaco. That’s despite Dortmund entering this contest on the back of a chastening 4-1 defeat at Bundesliga leaders Bayern Munich on Saturday.
That reverse will be a concern for boss Thomas Tuchel but his side are more than capable of bouncing back, as they did when beating Benfica 4-0 at the Westfalenstadion after losing 1-0 in Portugal in the first leg of their last-16 clash.
Dortmund finished 2016 with an unbeaten home record stretching 24 matches and they’ve won six and drawn one of their seven matches on their own turf this year.
That makes it fully understandable for Dortmund to be odds-on across the board for the win but I’d be surprised if it is a runaway success for the Bundesliga outfit. I like the look of the 23/20 available with Betfair Sportsbook and Marathon Bet for over 3.5 goals in this contest.
Five of Dortmund’s eight Champions League games have got above that mark (including the incredible 8-4 win at home to Legia Warsaw in the group stage) and Monaco can’t rely on their defence to get to the last four.
Expect plenty of entertainment across both legs of this tie and start with the odds-against for four or more goals in this opening contest.
Prediction: Borussia Dortmund 3-2 Monaco (By Nick Hext)
Opta facts
This is the first competitive encounter between Borussia Dortmund Dortmund and Monaco.
Only one French team has beaten Dortmund on their own soil in European competition (D3 L5), it was Marseille in December 2011 (3-2).
Meanwhile, this will be Monaco’s third competitive game against a German side this season after facing Bayer Leverkusen in the group stages, drawing 1-1 at home before losing 3-0 away.
Borussia Dortmund have reached the quarter-finals of the Champions League for the third time in the last five seasons.
Borussia Dortmund have lost only one of their eight Champions League games this season (W5 D2), it was away against Benfica in the round of 16 first leg. o However, Dortmund have lost seven of their last 10 games in the Champions League knockout stages (W3).
Borussia Dortmund have scored more goals than any other team from the 76th minute onwards in this season’s Champions League (7). They’ve also netted 12 goals in their last two home games (8 v Legia Warsaw, 4 v Benfica).
Monaco have made the quarter-finals of the Champions League for the fourth time. Only PSG have done better among the French teams (five times)
It’s the second time in three years Monaco have reached the last eight of the competition. However, the last time they made the semis was back in 2003/04, when they were eventually beaten by Porto in the final.
Monaco have conceded 13 goals in the Champions League this season – including eight in their last two away games – more than any other team among the remaining quarter-finalists.
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang has scored seven goals in seven Champions League games this season, including a hat-trick in his last outing against Benfica in the round of 16.
Despite making only 11 starts in the Champions League, Falcao has scored eight goals.
Fabinho is directly involved in three of Monaco’s last six Champions League goals (1 goal, 2 assists).
Atletico Madrid v Leicester (1945BST)
It was going to happen eventually but Leicester’s bubble under Craig Shakespeare finally burst on Sunday following a 4-2 defeat at Everton.
Shakespeare was quick to point out in the aftermath that the Foxes have always looked forward and never dwelled on each victory since he took interim charge so the trick is for him to now apply the same mentality to a hefty reverse on Merseyside.
The good news is they head to the Spanish capital in much better domestic shape than their last European encounter against Sevilla and expectations are pretty low with bookmakers quoting a huge 12/1 to bring an advantage back to the King Power Stadium.
Shakespeare has certainly restored a good dollop of the intensity and tenacity to the Premier League champions last year but were exposed at the back time after time by the Toffees in a whirlwind first 45 minutes as Yohan Benalouane was frequently found out in place of sidelined captain Wes Morgan.
The latter’s back injury is still an issue so it will be up to Benalouane and company to raise their collective game – that is not beyond the realms of possibility considering it is such a glaring issue for Shakespeare and his coaching staff to work on.
The quietly spoken Morgan has flown out with the squad and will give a speech before the game to inspire the troops but I would like to think those players available for selection can produce a performance that gives them hope for the second leg at the very least.
While they struggled to cope with Romelu Lukaku, Kevin Mirallas, Ross Barkley and company on Sunday, there was still plenty of menace on display from Leicester on the break – Islam Slimani’s equaliser was a perfect example after the ever-improving Demari Gray gashed his way through the middle of the park.
Scoring won’t be straightforward – the hosts have conceded just once at the Vicente Calderon in their last nine Champions League fixtures while rescuing a 1-1 draw across the city at Real over the weekend thanks to a late Antoine Griezmann leveller won’t have done moral much harm.
They are no bigger than 30/100 for victory but Leicester have spent the past 18 months defying all the odds and I expect them to punch above their weight once more here.
A dodgy away record this season has to be overcome but the visitors can be supported at even money getting a generous two-goal start on the handicap and that looks the way to go for a wager.
Prediction: Atletico Madrid 1-0 Leicester (By David John)
Opta facts:
Atletico Madrid and Leicester City are meeting for the third time in a European home/away tie after facing each other in the first round of the 1961/62 Cup Winners Cup and 1997/98 UEFA Cup. The Spanish side qualified on both previous occasions.
In fact, 25% of Leicester City’s games in European competition have taken place against Atlético Madrid (4 out of 16).
Atletico Madrid have reached the quarter-finals of the Champions League for the fourth consecutive season. They had only reached that stage once previously (1996/97).
Atletico Madrid have won six of their eight Champions League games this season (D1 L1). No team has collected more victories.
Atletico Madrid have won 16 of their 21 Champions League home games under Diego Simeone (D4 L1), their only defeat coming against Benfica in September 2015 (1-2). They are unbeaten in the knockout stages (W5 D4).
Atletico Madrid have also kept a clean sheet in 15 of their last 17 Champions League games at the Calderón.
Leicester City are the first team since Malaga in 2012/13 to reach the quarter-finals on their Champions League debut. They’re also the eighth English team to make it to the Last 8 of the competition, more than any other country.
Leicester City have won only one of their four away games in the Champions League this season (D1 L2), it was against Club Brugge on matchday 1 (3-0).
Bayern Munich v Real Madrid (1945)
It is a fixture that would certainly grace any European Cup final but the luck of the draw has served it up a little over a month early with the hosts an odds-on chance to get the upper hand in Bavaria.
There is not a great deal of support behind them though at the moment despite a home record that is untarnished all season and on just three occasions have they failed to put the opposition to the sword.
Punters have perhaps got a bit twitchy at such a relative short price against Real with the news that striker Robert Lewandowski could be absent after sustaining a shoulder injury in the 4-1 victory over Borussia Dortmund at the weekend.
The Pole was on target twice before going off to take his tally to a whopping 46 and although manager Carlo Ancelotti reports he sustained just a bruise and will be fit to start, investors can be nervous creatures and their win odds continue to drift.
The visitors might have allowed a late equaliser at the weekend against city rivals Atletico but they remain in good shape to win LaLiga for the first time in five years and Zinedine Zidane will also have every hope of making the last four of this competition.
He will have to wait and see how much of an influence Lewandowski will be on the night but defensive worries anyway for the Spaniards are an issue with both Rafael Varane and Pepe already ruled out.
It will be at the other end of the pitch that Zidane will hope to exert most pressure via Cristiano Ronaldo and Gareth Bale as they look to extend an unbeaten streak in Europe this season while Pepe’s second-half goal on Saturday makes it a mind-boggling run of a goal in 52 consecutive fixtures on all fronts.
The wily Ancelotti was in command when Real dished out a 4-0 thrashing to Bayern in 2014 and they remain the last team to record a European success at the Allianz Arena – the Italian obviously sits in the other dugout now and is protecting that unbeaten record since which is just a fortnight shy of three years.
I get the impression neither of these sides really do cagey currently and those who create the odds are probably right in their belief that plenty of goals will be on the agenda.
I am not going to have a bet but a high-scoring draw gets the verdict with all still to play for next up at the Bernabeu.
Prediction: Bayern Munich 2-2 Real Madrid (By David John)
Opta facts:
This is the 23rd European Cup/Champions League fixture between Bayern Munich and Real Madrid – the 17th under the Champions League era – a record in the history of the tournament.
Bayern Munich and Real Madrid are perfectly level in their European Cup/Champions League knockout encounters, progressing five times each.
Real Madrid have lost nine of their 11 away games against Bayern Munich in European competition (W1 D1) but they won on their last trip to the Allianz Arena, inflicting on the Bavarians their biggest European home defeat (4-0).
Bayern Munich have reached the quarter-finals of the Champions League for the sixth consecutive season. In fact, in each of the five previous campaigns, they’ve systematically made it to the semis.
Bayern Munich have won their last 16 home Champions League games (58 goals scored, 9 conceded), the longest winning run in the history of the competition. The last team to beat them at the Allianz Arena was … Real Madrid, in April 2014 (0-4).
None of Bayern Munich’s last 10 Champions League games has ended in a draw (W7 L3). The last one was against Benfica in April 2016 (2-2).
Bayern Munich have scored 24 goals in this season’s Champions League, including 10 on their last two outings (against Arsenal). However, they have only kept one clean sheet in their last seven games.
Originally posted at 1700 BST on 11/04/17. Dortmund preview added following the match's rescheduling from Tuesday to Wednesday following the bomb on the Dortmund team bus
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