Football betting tips: Champions League
1pt Jude Bellingham to be carded at 9/2 (bet365)
The goals market gives us the best indication for what to expect from this clash with overs as short at 4/9 with Sky Bet.
Is there anyone confidently taking goals on? Unders is 13/8 generally and it would make for an extremely uncomfortable watch if the recent meetings are anything to go by.
Since 2020, these sides have squared-off 10 times with an average of 3.4 goals, a high of seven, a low of two and no nil-nils.
Manchester City kept their first clean sheet in four games at the weekend against Sunderland - who hit the post - and their last 10 games have averaged exactly four goals a match.
Hosts Real Madrid aren’t quite as goals-y but their last four have seen 3, 2, 7 and 4. So, yeah I’d probably leave the goals alone at the prices and maybe head to the goalscorer market as both sides are spearheaded by strikers in pretty good form.
Los Blancos are in a bit of bad form heading into this fixture. Their season follows a similar trajectory to Liverpool’s actually, fitting as it is former red Xabi Alonso in the hotseat in Madrid.
Madrid played Liverpool at Anfield at the start of November in the Champions League, they’d only failed to win one game all season heading into that clash (W13 L1).
Liverpool beat them 1-0 and Alonso’s side have only won two games since (D3 L1) culminating in a 2-0 home loss to Celta Vigo at the weekend where Madrid had three players sent off.
The online rumour mill suggests that a home defeat on Wednesday could spell the end for Alonso and I want to exploit this pressure.
Pressure usually equates to cards and JUDE BELLINGHAM is a whopping 9/2 TO BE CARDED on Wednesday.
Based on his cards per 90 average in Spain, this is a point too big (0.24) and that is without factoring in the referee, occasion and opposition.
In the Champions League, Bellingham’s picked up 14Y in 60 appearances (0.26 cards per 90) but - this is the best bit - the majority come against English opposition.
Bellingham has made 13 appearances against his compatriots and picked up six cards. Against City it is eight games and three cards.
So, 43% of Bellingham’s cards have come in 22% of his UCL appearances. He clearly loves these occasions.
At 50/1, I wouldn’t put anyone off a very cheeky punt on him to get a red card either.
Odds correct at 1520 GMT (09/12/25)
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