Football betting tips: Champions League
1.5pts Over 10.5 corners at 13/8 (Sky Bet)
1pt Over 12.5 corners at 7/2 (Sky Bet)
BuildABet @ 23/1
- 12+ match corners
- Dominik Szoboszlai to score anytime
- 30+ booking points
There's a few games which catch the eye in the revamped Champions League round of 16 stage, although this could make a claim to be the biggest of them all.
Ligue 1 leaders, and serial winners, PSG welcome soon-to-be Premier League champions Liverpool to the Parc des Princes for a European encounter which really could go either way.
The first leg is of significance important to the hosts. Liverpool's strong record at Anfield makes it difficult for any opponent to leave with something positive. They need to ensure they aren't travelling there with a deficit.
Atletico Madrid are the only side to have beaten PSG in front of their own supporters in 18 attempts this season - 14 of those ending in a home victory.
Brest were battered 7-0 the other week; Manchester City beaten 4-2 in January. Seven of the last eight to visit the French capital have returned with nothing.
And Liverpool have won just one of their last four on the road. It's somewhat understandable why the home side take favouritism in the first leg.
The great news for the neutral is that is is a contest which should match the hype. Two strong attacks facing off could well make it feel like the clichéd basketball game - end-to-end with action in both goals.
You're getting 1/2 on Over 2.5 goals though, forcing a look elsewhere to find better value.
What are the best bets?
PSG feel unstoppable.
Across their last 16 games, 15 of those have been wins. Ten have also see them score at least three times.
That talent in attack is a big driving factor behind this remarkable form. Bradley Barcola, Ousmane Dembélé and Gonçalo Ramos have all scored at least 12 goals across all competitions this season.
In the Champions League, Dembélé leads the way with six yet he's one of six players with at least two to their name in Europe.
Style plays a part too. They have such talented wingers and they're keen to use them. Khvicha Kvaratskhelia's arrival in January added further quality and he's had six goal involvements across ten appearances.
Of the 36 teams to have featured in this competition, PSG rank 30th for attacks through the middle. Width is a key element to the way they break forward.
It's why CORNERS are a particularly appealing avenue in what should be an open contest, with OVER 10.5 a best price of 13/8.
Not only do they look to their width but they also look to get the ball into the box. The French giants rank eighth for crosses attempted per game in the Champions League this season (18.2).
Only Bayern Munich (21.8) have seen a higher average shots per game total too (PSG sit on 18.5). In home games, their figure jumps up to 24.0.
Both of those have an impact on their potential to take corners with both shots and crosses deflected by defenders aiming to block them. They took 11 in that previously mentioned win over City with 14 in a draw with PSV.
And then there's Liverpool's involvement. Arne Slot's side have seen 60% of their Premier League away games return at least 11 corners. They take twice as many as their opponents.
The Reds rank fourth for average shots per away game in Europe (16.0). They sit mid-table for crosses in 17th with 15.5.
Liverpool took eight corners in their win at Girona and seven in Leipzig. When Real Madrid visited Anfield, a side of real quality, the match corner count hit 13.
And we're taking a repeat of that here with the 7/2 on OVER 12.5 CORNERS.
This is a slightly bigger line than I'd usually target but it's a value play based on the prices and potential.
Team news
PSG are in a good place in terms of both form and squad availability with Luis Enrique having no injury issues to deal with currently.
Kvaratskhelia dropped to the bench for the win over Lille at the weekend and should return to the starting XI having featured for the final half hour.
Slot remains without defensive options Joe Gomez and Conor Bradley.
Cody Gakpo is a major doubt after missing training - the Netherlands international has been struggling with an ankle problem.
Amara Nallo is also suspended having been sent off just minutes after coming on for his debut against PSV. Although, he wouldn't have featured here anyway.
Predicted line-ups
PSG XI: Donnarumma; Hakimi, Marquinhos, Pacho, Mendes; Ruiz, Vitinha, Neves; Kvaratskhelia, Dembélé, Barcola.
Liverpool XI: Alisson; Alexander-Arnold, Konate, Van Dijk, Robertson; Gravenberch, Mac Allister, Szoboszlai; Salah, Jota, Diaz.
Match facts
- This will be just the third UEFA Champions League meeting between Liverpool and Paris Saint-Germain, with the two sides previously squaring off in the 2018-19 group stage, with the Reds winning 3-2 at home and losing 1-2 away.
- Liverpool and Paris Saint-Germain will face each other in the knockout stages of a major European competition for the first time since meeting in the semi-final of the Cup Winners’ Cup in 1996-97, with the Parisians progressing to the final following a 3-2 aggregate victory.
- Liverpool haven't won any of their last five away games against French sides in Europe (D2 L3), with their last such victory coming at Marseille in September 2008 (2-1 in the UEFA Champions League).
- Liverpool manager Arne Slot is unbeaten against French opposition in major European competition, winning two of his three matches and drawing the other. Indeed, the most recent of those was a 2-1 win over Lille in this season’s league phase in the UEFA Champions League.
- Paris SG are on a five-game win streak in the UEFA Champions League, scoring 21 goals and only conceding three times in this run. They last won six in a row in the competition in the 1994-95 campaign, under Luis Fernandez (6).
- Liverpool have lost each of their last three games in the knockout stages of the UEFA Champions League, although all three of those have been against Real Madrid (2021-22 final and home/away in 2022-23 last 16). Indeed, since the start of 2020-21, four of their five losses in the knockout stages of the competition have been against Real Madrid, with Internazionale (in March 2022) the only other side to beat them.
- Paris SG’s Marquinhos could make his 100th UEFA Champions League start in this game (currently on 99). He’d be just the fourth Brazilian player to achieve this milestone, after Roberto Carlos (120), Dani Alves (108) and Thiago Silva (100), as well as the first player to make 100 starts for a French club in the competition (all for Paris SG).
- Liverpool’s Mohamed Salah has been directly involved in 20 goals in 30 appearances in the knockout stages of the UEFA Champions League (12 goals, eight assists); the most by an African player in the competition’s history (one more than Samuel Eto'o and Didier Drogba).
- Paris SG’s Achraf Hakimi leads all defenders in the UEFA Champions League this season for chances created (12) and assists (4) made while under high-intensity pressure from an opposition player. Indeed, his four such assists are the most of any player in the competition this term.
- Among full backs with 300+ minutes played in the UEFA Champions League this season, the two players averaging the most line-breaking passes per 90 are Liverpool pair Andy Robertson (16.6) and Trent Alexander-Arnold (13.9).
Odds correct at 1525 GMT (03/03/25)
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