Football betting tips: Champions League
2pts Ousmane Dembele to score anytime at 6/5 (Sky Bet)
2pts Raphinha to score anytime at 11/10 (Sky Bet)
0.75pts Dembele and Raphinha both to score anytime at 4/1 (Sky Bet, Betfair)
0.5pt Raphinha to score 2+ goals at 11/2 (Sky Bet)
0.5pt Dembele to score 2+ goals at 13/2 (Sky Bet)
0.25pt Dembele and Raphinha both to score 2+ at 66/1 (Sky Bet, Betfair)
0.1pt Dembele and Raphinha both to score 3+ at 795/1 (Sky Bet)
*All selections not market leading price, but chosen instead due to super sub offering
Surely, surely there will be goals here.
Two teams who are absolutely flying in attack going head-to-head in the low-jeopardy league phase of the Champions League could quite easily mean a cricket score. The market is taking no chances, with Over 4.5 Goals priced at just 6/5.
It makes sense though, with PSG fresh off an excellent 4-2 win at Manchester City last week, followed by a 3-1 win at Strasbourg, and Barcelona heading to France after a 4-1 win in Galatasaray and 5-2 away success against Real Betis.
Indeed, PSG's games across all competitions have averaged 4.0 goals, with both teams scoring in eight of those nine, while Barca have seen BTTS hit in seven of 11 this season, with those games averaging a whopping 5.37 goals. Bonkers.
BTTS and Over 3.5 goals is a best price of 6/10, so instead of trying to manufacture something around goals, let's focus on who is likely to score the goals, and some obvious candidates are at tasty looking prices.
OUSMANE DEMBELE is available at 6/5 TO SCORE ANYTIME and he's the first bet of the preview. Dembele continues to get rested in league games preceding a Champions League contest, such is the luxury PSG have in Ligue 1, meaning he is incredibly fresh on European nights.
The current Ballon d'Or holder has scored in both UCL outings so far, netting a brace in Les Parisiens opener and once at the Etihad, and is undoubtedly his side's biggest attacking threat, averaging 1.17 xG per 90 so far this season.
He will be licking his lips at the thought of facing his former side and their vulnerable defence, as for all the scary attacking threat Barcelona have, their defence does leave a lot to be desired - though they are yet to come up against an opponent who can outscore them.
Despite winning all 11 matches so far this season, Barca have conceded multiple times on four occasions, so plenty of encouragement for PSG and Dembele, not that the reigning UCL champs need any encouragement. We are taking a slightly shorter price at Sky Bet due to their super sub offering, with Coral and Ladbrokes best priced at 5/4 but not offering such terms.
On the Barcelona side of things, RAPHINHA is back available and is selected at 11/10 TO SCORE ANYTIME. Again, we are taking a shorter price to lock in super sub terms, as there is every chance Raph only gets an hour on his return from injury on international duty that saw him miss Barca's first three games back after the international break.
He made a 20 minute cameo off the bench at Betis and will likely be in from the start here. Raphinha went into the break on the back of successive hat-tricks, with the former Leeds man playing as the number nine in this high-flying attacking unit. So far this season in just nine appearances he's scored 14 times, finding the net in all bar one of his eight starts.
Raphinha is averaging a mind-boggling 1.34 xG per 90 across all competitions this term and is his side's penalty taker, so the price about him scoring just once here looks too big against a PSG side who are defensively vulnerable, keeping just one clean sheet in nine this season.
Given the likelihood of goals, we'll also back both DEMBELE AND RAPHINHA TO SCORE ANYTIME. We'll take the 4/1 with Paddy Power as opposed to the slightly bigger 17/4 with Coral and Ladbrokes again due to the super sub offering.
It could be worth also covering both players TO SCORE 2+ GOALS, with RAPHINHA 11/2 and DEMBELE 13/2 as singles. The BRACE DOUBLE is worth a go at 66/1 too.
Raphinha has scored five braces or better already this season in just nine appearances while Dembele has fired one brace this term.
It's worth pointing out the likely super subs here too which is one of the reasons for the higher line double. Dembele will likely be replaced by Ferran Torres, who has scored seven in nine this season, while Raphinha's most likely replacement is Gabriel Jesus who has already scored four times in limited minutes this season.
While not wanting to go overboard, I'll also recommend an extremely small bet on RAPHINHA and DEMBELE BOTH TO SCORE 3+ goals at nearly 800/1. It's a real longshot bet but these two sides are so attack-minded I wouldn't be surprised to see this game end 4-4, in which case the bet shouldn't really be that big of a price, especially with super sub offered.
Watch the game be nil-nil now...
Odds correct at 12:20 BST (19/10/26)
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