Football betting tips: Champions League
1pt Jurrien Timber to be carded at 4/1 (Sky Bet)
BuildABet @ 11/1
- PSG to win
- Jurrien Timber to commit 2+ fouls
- Jurrien Timber to be carded
The first leg of this Champions League semi-final was interesting, and PSG were impressive.
Les Parisiens were clinical to go ahead but were ultimately left rueing the chances they missed late on in the game. Both Goncalo Ramos and Bradley Barcola went close, the former hitting the bar with a toe punt, which perhaps would have put the tie to bed.
Although the odds suggest otherwise, there is only one goal between the sides, so this tie is far from over.
Arsenal are as big as 7/2 to qualify with Sky Bet, but they will take encouragement from their first leg performance.
The Gunners won the xG battle 1.63-1.16 with Leandro Trossard and Gabriel Martinelli squandering the best of their chances.
The visitors' hopes of a place in the final are massively bolstered by the return of Thomas Partey. The midfielder missed the first leg due to suspension and his return should restore some balance to proceedings.
Even with Partey back, Mikel Arteta will be all too aware of PSG’s threat.
Luis Enrique won't compromise so do not expect an ultra low-block and the hosts mix of pace and trickery in attack paints an ominous picture with the Gunners chasing the game.
Squad depth could also be pivotal.
PSG had the luxury of resting and rotating at the weekend, something Arsenal’s squad simply does not facilitate.
What are the best bets?
KHVICHA KVARATSKHELIA has been scintillating since joining PSG.
You have to watch Kvaradona to appreciate him but his numbers are also good.
He has scored two and set up another two in six Champions League starts for PSG but what interests me here is his foul drawing capabilities.
Kvaratskhelia has drawn 15 fouls in total, three in each of his last three European appearances, and averages two dribbles a game.
Two of his direct opponents have picked up bookings and JURRIEN TIMBER was lucky to avoid one after committing four fouls in the first leg.
Timber missed the game at Bournemouth with a knock but is back in training so should be given the all clear on Wednesday.
Timber has nine cards to his name in 36 Premier League and UCL starts. Based on his cards per 90 average alone (0.25), his price TO BE CARDED is a point too big and that is without considering the man he will be marking.
Team news
Arteta only made two changes from the side that played in the first leg for the defeat against Bournemouth on Saturday.
Ben White came in for Timber at right back and Mikel Merino dropped out for Partey.
Expect Timber and Merino to return to the XI on Wednesday at the expense of Trossard and White. This will likely mean Merino operates upfront, flanked by Bukayo Saka and Martinelli.
Unlike Arsenal, PSG were able to rest and rotate at the weekend.
Enrique made 10 changes ahead of the trip to Strasbourg, Joao Neves was the only survivor from the first leg, but the hosts are expected to name the XI as the one which won in North London.
Predicted line-ups
PSG: Donnarumma; Hakimi, Marquinhos, Pacho, Mendes; Ruiz, Vitinha, Neves; Doue, Dembele, Kvaratskhelia
Arsenal: Raya; Timber, Saliba, Kiwior, Lewis-Skelly; Odegaard, Partey, Rice; Saka, Merino, Martinelli
Match facts
- PSG’s 1-0 win the first leg was their first ever victory in six attempts against Arsenal (D3 L2). Both of their home games against the Gunners have finished 1-1 (March 1994, September 2016).
- Having been unbeaten in their first 13 away games against French sides in all competitions (W8 D5), Arsenal have now lost their last two visits against Rennes in 2019 and Lens in 2023.
- Only two teams have ever reached the UEFA Champions League final having lost the first leg of their semi-final tie at home, with Ajax overcoming Panathinaikos in 1995-96, and Tottenham doing the same against Ajax in 2018-19.
- Both PSG and Arsenal are bidding to reach their second European Cup/UEFA Champions League final, with the French side doing so in 2019-20, and the Gunners in 2005-06. When winning the first leg of a European tie away from home, PSG have only been eliminated once (vs Man Utd in 2018-19), while the Gunners have never progressed when losing the first leg at home.
- PSG have won three of their last four UEFA Champions League home games, netting 14 goals across those three victories. However, they’ve lost twice at Parc des Princes this season (vs Liverpool and Atlético de Madrid), only losing three at home in the same campaign in 2020-21.
- Arsenal have won each of their last four away games in the UEFA Champions League – the Gunners have never won five in a row on the road across all European competition before.
- Paris Saint-Germain have made 150 line-breaking passes that have broken the defensive line in the UEFA Champions League this season, second only to Bayern Munich (156). 25 have been by Ousmane Dembélé, the joint most of any player this campaign.
- Ousmane Dembélé’s winner in the first leg was his eighth goal in the UEFA Champions League this season – only Zlatan Ibrahimovic has netted more in a single campaign for PSG (10 in 2013-14).
- As well as completing the joint most passes on either team in the first leg (50), Arsenal’s Declan Rice made the most line-breaking passes in the final third (6). He leads all Gunners players in the UEFA Champions League this season for line-breaking passes leading to both shots (7) and goals (3).
- Paris SG’s João Neves has made 51 tackles in this season’s UEFA Champions League, the most by a midfielder in a season since Arturo Vidal in 2014-15 (52). He’s applied 756 high pressures to opponents in 2024-25, over 100 more than any other player.
Odds correct at 1600 BST (06/05/25)
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