Football betting tips: Champions League
1.5pts Manchester United to score 4+ goals at 5/4 (Sky Bet)
1.5pts Bruno Fernandes to score anytime at 11/10 (Sky Bet)
Manchester United are back at Europe's top table for the first time since the 2018/19 season, and Michael Carrick open their campaign with a home tie against the team everyone has marked as whipping boys.
Azerbaijani Premier League champions Sabah, managed by the now famous Valdas Dambrauskas who won money on the Lithuanian television quiz show to help fund his coaching career, are deemed no-hopers by the market, priced as 7/4 favourites to prop up the League Phase.
Dambrauskas, who moved to England to do his coaching badges after success in the game show, earned his stripes at London Tigers and Brentford's academy before moving back to Lithuania as an assistant manager. His career has taken off since then as he moved across Latvia, Croatia, Bulgaria, Greece, Cyprus and Hungary, delivering titles in the process.
Qualifying for the Champions League with Sabah for the first time in the clubs history might just be the biggest achievement of the lot though, and what a way for them to start their European journey than at the Theatre of Dreams.
They won't just turn up and enjoy the occasion, Sabah will have a go, play their own game, and that could end in a bit of a battering against a Manchester United team who are flat-track bullies at Old Trafford, as seen recently against Ipswich.
Michael Carrick has once again made Old Trafford a fortress, overseeing nine wins in 10 home games, scoring 26 times in the process, so it is a happy hunting ground once again for his team, while they do aim to entertain as well as win.
While not completely relevant to Sabah, I do think it's worthwhile looking at how last season's Azerbaijani entry into the Champions League, Qarabag, fared.
They started the campaign with a stunning 3-2 win away at Benfica followed by a 2-0 home success over Copenhagen, but things soon unravelled, especially on their travels.
They were beaten 3-1 away at a middling Athletic Bilbao, 2-0 at Napoli before Liverpool dismantled them 6-0. Across those three games they shipped an eye-watering total of 12.83 xGA, an average of 4.27 per game. They did make it to the play-off round but were hit for nine over two legs by mid-table Premier League finishers Newcastle, who generated 8.35 xG across both legs.
That potentially gives us a decent idea of the likely level of Sabah, especially away from Azerbaijan, as their home performances have been phenomenal in qualifying - something to bear in mind for matchday two.
But on the road, Sabah were beaten 2-1 in both away legs in the last two rounds of UCL qualifying against Danish side AGF and Israelis Hapoel Be'er Sheva - who were playing their home games in Bucharest - with Sabah conceding over 2.0 xG in the latter.
This is a much, much stiffer test against a Manchester United side who have shown they can be absolutely ruthless and relentless when given the chance, and, given goal difference could prove pivotal in what usually ends up being a tight league phase, we shouldn't expect the Red Devils to take their foot off the gas.
If United are to rack up the goals, the chances are that BRUNO FERNANDES will be involved. He's even money for an assist but 11/10 TO SCORE ANYTIME, and fresh off a hat-trick in his last Old Trafford outing, it's the latter that is worth taking.
He has averaged five shots per 90 so far this season, 1.33 on target per 90 and an xG per 90 of 0.75. The fact he takes penalties is a huge bonus here against a minnow who will have rarely faced a team with the speed and incision of a team from the Premier League side ever.
Odds correct at 20:40 BST (8/9/26)
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