Football betting tips: Champions League
1.5pts Vinicius Jr to score anytime at 2/1 (General)
1pt Vinicius Jr to be carded at 4/1 (BetVictor)
0.5pt Vinicius Jr to score and be carded at 13/1 (BetVictor)
1pt Matheus Nunes to be carded at 9/2 (bet365)
1pt Erling Haaland 1+ headed shot on target at 9/2 (William Hill)
0.5pt Haaland to score a header at 17/2 (Sky Bet)
BuildABet @ 200/1
- Vinicius Jr to score anytime
- Vinicius Jr to be carded
- Matheus Nunes to be carded
- Erling Haaland to score a header
Who would have thought before a ball was kicked in the Champions League that one of Manchester City or Real Madrid wouldn't be in the last 16.
The duo have become constant features in the latter stages, with Los Blancos a record 15-times winners.
City and Madrid have been big rivals in recent years too, playing each other in all of the last three seasons, but never sooner than the quarter-finals.
Recent head-to-heads have been feisty (average of 4.5 cards per game) and entertaining (4.0 goals per game).
It would be a huge surprise were that not again the case.
What are the best bets?
Manchester City remain one of the most vulnerable defences in transition and Real Madrid happen to have one of the most dynamic attacks in Europe, meaning it could be a long night for Pep Guardiola's side.
On the flip side though, Madrid's defence has been especially poor in the Champions League and is depleted. Los Blancos have allowed 1.86 xGA per game, ranking them seventh worst, and they go to the Etihad without their first choice back four, so City should too have plenty of joy.
With attack being both sides' strength goals should be forthcoming. It could turn into a basketball game, an end-to-end chaotic contest, which is why over 2.5 goals is as short as 1/2.
The pace of VINICIUS JR will be a big problem for City in their post-Kyle Walker era, especially with their issues in transition.
He is Real Madrid's Mr. Champions League, netting 20 goals in his last 28 UCL appearances including in both of their most recent appearances in the final.
This season he has seven goals in six appearances, averaging 0.75 xG per 90, and against a vulnerable City backline, looks a nice price at 2/1 TO SCORE ANYTIME.
His one-on-one match-up will be incredibly favourable, with either Rico Lewis or more likely Matheus Nunes being tasked with managing the illusive Brazilian.
While perhaps petty, the Ballon D'or narrative cannot be overlooked either, especially for an emotionally charged player such as Vinicius.
Vini and his club were seething that the Brazilian was overlooked in favour of Manchester City's Rodri; extra motivation.
It's enough of a reason to also back VINICIUS TO BE CARDED, as well as the GOAL AND CARD DOUBLE
- CLICK HERE to back Vinicius Jr to be carded with Sky Bet
- CLICK HERE to back Vinicius Jr to score and be carded with Sky Bet
The winger has a rotten disciplinary record this season, being carded 11 times in 28 appearances, so the 4/1 for him to be carded again looks massive.
The goal and card combo has landed a huge 11 times in his last 49 games for Real Madrid, meaning a 22% strike rate which would give implied odds of around 7/2.
We can get 13/1 with BetVictor, and I'd back it down to around 9/1 which is available with most firms. It's a bet that's landed in three of his six UCL games this season.
Nightmare for Nunes
I also can't resist the 9/2 carrot dangled for Vini's likely opponent, MATHEUS NUNES, TO BE CARDED either.
Nunes, a midfielder by trade, will struggle against Vinicius, a player who is lightening quick and extremely direct. The Brazilian winger has drawn an average of 3.04 fouls per 90 this season, while Nunes has made 1.80 fouls per 90 when playing right-back.
Referee Clement Turpin hasn't been the most prolific or consistent for cards this season, but has shown flashes of his ability to drop a big-card game. Let's hope he ups his game for the knockouts.
Use your head
Having discussed City's defensive shortcomings, the final bet I love for this game revolves around Madrid's defensive issues and a potential mis-match.
It's highly likely Ancelotti will field Aurélien Tchouaméni and youngster Raul Asencio at centre-back, meaning ERLING HAALAND will be licking his lips.
At 6ft 4in, the Norwegian has a big height advantage on both Madrid men (6ft 1in and 6ft) as well as being much better in the air than the pair.
That has me wanting to back him to have 1+ HEADED SHOTS ON TARGET as well as TO SCORE A HEADER at 9/2 and 17/2 respectively.
- CLICK HERE to back Erling Haaland 1+ headed shots on target with Sky Bet
- CLICK HERE to back Erling Haaland to score a header with Sky Bet
City's front man has hit the target with his head 23 times this season at an average of 0.74 per 90 and has four headed goals to his name - he is averaging 0.21 xG per 90 with just his head.
It looks to be a strength vs weakness scenario, especially with City crossing the ball a lot more of late, so Haaland will get chances with his noggin, be it from open play or set-pieces.
Backing the header is a nice way to get the City cyborg onside at bigger prices.
Team news
Manchester City suffered a potentially huge blow at the weekend with new midfielder Nico Gonzalez going off injured against Leyton Orient, with the Spaniard now doubtful for this game.
City are already without Oscar Bobb, Nathan Ake, Jeremy Doku, Ederson and and Rodri. Kevin De Bryune should come in to start here, while all of City's new signings are eligible to play.
Real Madrid head to Manchester in the midst of their own injury crisis, missing effectively their starting back four. Dani Carvajal, Antonio Rudiger, Eder Militao and David Alaba are all injured, while Carvajal's back-up, Lucas Vazquez, picked up an injury at the weekend and is expected to miss out here as well.
Aurelien Tchouameni will again partner Raul Asencio at centre-back, with it predicted that Fede Valverde will play right-back.
Los Blancos have a number of players who are a yellow card away from a second-leg suspension, with Jude Bellingham, Luka Modric, Eduardo Camavinga, Endrick and Tchouameni all walking a tightrope, as is manager Carlo Ancelotti.
Predicted line-ups
Manchester City: Ederson; Nunes, Akanji, Dias, Gvardiol; Silva, Kovacic; Foden, De Bruyne, Savinho; Haaland.
Real Madrid: Courtois; Valverde, Tchouameni, Asencio, Mendy; Camavinga, Modric; Rodrygo, Bellingham, Vinicius Junior; Mbappe.
Odds correct at 1600 GMT (10/02/25)
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