Football betting tips: Champions League
1.5pts Napoli or draw (double chance) at 5/4 (Sky Bet)
0.5pt Napoli to win at 9/2 (Betfred)
Manchester City had a miserable 24/25 Champions League campaign, getting eliminated in the play-off round after finishing 22nd of 36 in the league phase. They will be hoping to start well here, but they couldn't really have asked for a tougher test.
Antonio Conte brings his NAPOLI side, filled with former Manchester United players and an all time City great deemed surplus to requirements, Kevin De Bruyne, to the Etihad, and the Italian's style is always a nightmare for Pep Guardiola teams.
The deep-lying, compact block coupled with fast and concise transitions have seen Pep come unstuck against Conte, with the Italian winning four of seven meetings. In fact, Pep has collected just 1.29 points per game against Conte, which is the lowest tally of any managerial head-to-heads with six or more meetings.
So, it's only right we row in with Conte's Ciucciarelli and back the Serie A champions to WIN OR DRAW (DOUBLE CHANCE) and to WIN at the Etihad.
We are getting 5/4 about the former and 9/2 about the latter, with prices looking massive. Manchester United were shorter in both markets last Sunday, and I am pretty comfortable in saying that the champions of Italy are better than the team who finished 15th in the Premier League last season.
I may be on my own here, but I didn't think City were all that good on Sunday, United were just that bad. Defensively the Red Devils are so easily exposed due to their midfielders jumping to press, and that is something Napoli won't do, while in attack United broke City's press a fair few times at 0-0 and 1-0 but were simply not clinical enough, and their final ball was horrific. Again, Napoli won't be as sloppy.
The Italians will punish City if given the same opportunity, with De Bruyne still possessing immense quality to pick out the right passes.
All in all, I'm still dubious as to how good this City team are. Their two wins this season have come against poor sides (Wolves and United) that finished 15th and 16th in the league last season, with defeats to an improved Spurs (though they did finish 17th last season) and Brighton (8th last term) - two sides I expect to be top half this season at least.
This will be their stiffest test to date, and backing them to fail is where the value lies. After all, Napoli have lost just five times in 41 games under Conte.
Odds correct at 1200 BST (17/09/25)
More from Sporting Life
- Fixtures, results and live scores
- Home of This Week's Acca
- Football and other sports tips
- Download the Sporting Life app
- Podcasts and video content
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.
