Football betting tips: Champions League
1pt Serhou Guirassy to be shown a card at 5/1 (BetVictor, Coral, Ladbrokes)
1pt Waldemar Anton to be shown a card at 17/4 (BetVictor)
This should be the straightforward home win we've become accustomed to with Manchester City at this stage of the Champions League.
Pep Guardiola's side usually cruise through with little issue, although they were certainly given a scare last season. Two wins and a draw across their opening three strongly suggests we won't be seeing a repeat this time around.
Borussia Dortmund have lost just once this season. They've also scored four goals in each of their three European outings so far. It's all a surprise given that it's, well, Dortmund.
And in fairness, one of those games did display the typical Dortmund-ness we've come to expect. They were leading 4-2 on 90+3 against Juventus only to draw 4-4.
It's no surprise then that BTTS is priced up at 8/13 here, as short as 1/2 in places, with over 2.5 made a 4/9 chance.
Niko Kovac has only faced Pep Guardiola once in his managerial career. That being a 1-0 win for Bayern when Pep was in Bavaria and Kovac was at Frankfurt back in April 2016 - 45 points separated the two sides after that and you can easily work out who was ahead.
I do wonder if Dortmund will look to make this a game with little flow to it. They currently rank sixth for fouls committed in the Bundesliga but move up to fourth when you only focus on away games.
I'm targeting two players in the CARD market for this one - WALDEMAR ANTON and SERHOU GUIRASSY.
It's not a huge surprise that Dortmund have only had three yellows across the course of their current European journey when we consider in two of those games, they held a three-goal lead at one point.
It was Jimmy 'Jimrod' The Punt who really made me pay attention to Guirassy's foul line. He's committed at least one in seven of his eight league outings this season and that has led to two yellows.
It's not been the same in Europe but we can again point to the lack of competitiveness as it transpired in two of the contests. This should be a different story in which they're on the back foot throughout.
He was also booked twice in this competition in the 24/25 edition.
Anton's only seen one yellow in the Bundesliga so far but he's certainly been contributing on the fouls front. The centre-back's seen at least one in six of his nine games.
In the Champions League, there were two fouls in the win over Athletic Club and one in the draw with Juventus. Considering the quality of City's attack - led by the freakishly good Erling Haaland - it'd be fair to assume Anton's in for a busy evening.
I typically don't like backing cards in City's home Premier League games but I'm a bit more open to it in European contests, particularly if the side they're facing has shown that they can run the fouls count high.
Referee Szymon Marciniak is usually good for a few cards too. He's shown three cards in three of four games overseen in this competition.
I don't think it'll be competitive enough for the card count to run high, it's why the line is set at 3.5 with the bookmakers, but there should be moments in which the referee is forced into making a decision.
At the prices, Anton and Guirassy provide appeal in the market.
Odds correct at 1545 GMT (03/11/25)
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