Football betting tips: Champions League
1.5pts Both teams to score ‘No’ at 13/8 (Sky Bet)
1pt Liverpool win to nil at 4/1 (Sky Bet, Betfair, BetVictor)
1.5pts Mohamed Salah to score anytime at 8/5 (bet365)
1pt Nuno Mendes to be carded at 4/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
BuildABet @ 20/1
- Liverpool to win
- Mo Salah to score anytime
- Nuno Mendes to be shown a card
- Alexis Mac Allister to commit 2+ fouls
Liverpool vs PSG (Agg: 1-0)
Kick-off: 20:00 GMT, Tuesday
TV: TNT Sports 1
Home 13/10 | Draw 13/5 | Away 7/4
Luis Enrique and his Paris Saint-Germain players could be forgiven for looking a little stunned as they trudged their way down the tunnel after the first leg of their Champions League round-of-16 tie.
Through a combination of luck, the tightest of VAR calls and the self-proclaimed “best performance” of Alisson’s life, Liverpool somehow left the Parc des Princes with a 1-0 advantage.
Substitute Harvey Elliott’s 87th-minute winner was the Reds’ second shot of the match; PSG finished the game with 27.
For all the praise the French champions have drawn, given Liverpool's level of consistency this season (W34 D7 L4 in all competitions) it's hard to shake the feeling that they've missed their opportunity.
Arne Slot's side surely cannot be quite so poor again in the second leg.
What are the best bets?
As dominant as PSG were (xG: PSG 1.78-0.27 LIV, possession: PSG 70%) Liverpool did improve greatly after half-time.
They largely limited the hosts to shots from outside the box and had chances themselves on the counter attack, only for poor final passes to let them down prior to Elliott dramatically firing home with his first touch.
Both the steel shown by the Reds players, and the impact of the substitutions made by their manager were nothing new, a consistent trait of Slot's maiden campaign.
Defensive organisation has been a crucial aspect of their success, and lately there have been signs of Liverpool being as difficult to breach as they ever have been this term.
In the four matches either side of the opening leg, the Reds went to Aston Villa and Manchester City and hosted Newcastle and Southampton, allowing an average of 0.48 expected goals against (xGA) per game.
It's no fluke they've conceded only three goals in their past five games, keeping four clean sheets, making BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE 'NO' of interest at 13/8, providing additional coverage versus the clean sheet should Liverpool themselves fail to find the net.
Slot’s team were imperious at Anfield in the group stage, winning all four of their fixtures, scoring 10 goals and conceding just once, beating Bayer Leverkusen 4-0 and Real Madrid 2-0, making it tempting to back Liverpool given the generous prices available.
With this is a match they quite literally do not have to win, I prefer taking smaller stakes to LIVERPOOL WIN TO NIL at 4/1.
When a team would be very happy to draw, and aren't enormously priced, it can muddy the waters a little, but at 4/1 there is enough there to make this angle backable.
If we're counting on Liverpool shrugging off a poor performance, it's fairly safe to rely on MOHAMED SALAH to do the same.
When compared with his potentially record-breaking domestic form, a pair of penalties against Southampton took him to 44 Premier League goal involvements for the season (27 goals and 17 assists) he has not quite matched up in the Champions League in terms of goals, scoring only three in eight appearances – though he has provided eight assists.
His expected goals (xG) total of 4.5 (which includes a missed penalty against Real Madrid) shows he is getting on end of plenty of high quality chances, and at a standout 8/5 we should back him TO SCORE ANYTIME and give his team additional breathing space in what is sure to be an enthralling tie.
One of the reasons Salah was so quiet in Paris was the outstanding NUNO MENDES.
It would be some effort should the PSG left-back repeat that outstanding defensive performance at Anfield. His 4/1 price TO BE SHOWN A CARD piques serious interest.
The Portugal international may have only been booked once in Ligue 1 this season, but three of his five cards have come in the Champions League, with the other two against Brest in the top flight and Monaco in the French Super Cup - France's other two UCL representatives, suggesting he has tendency to be cautioned when tested by higher calibre opponents.
Team news
Liverpool are likely to remain without Cody Gakpo while Joe Gomez and Conor Bradley are definitely missing.
PSG boss Luis Enrique has no injuries or suspensions to impinge on his selection, with him likely to name the same XI so unfortunate to lose the opening leg.
Predicted line-ups
Liverpool: Alisson; Alexander-Arnold, Konate, Van Dijk, Robertson; Gravenberch, Mac Allister, Szoboszlai; Salah, Jota, Diaz.
PSG: Donnarumma; Hakimi, Marquinhos, Pacho, Mendes; Ruiz, Vitinha, Neves; Kvaratskhelia, Dembele, Barcola.
Match facts
- After losing their first European meeting with Paris SG in April 1997 (0-3 in the Cup Winners’ Cup semi-final first leg), Liverpool have only lost one of four against them since, winning three of them.
- None of the last 15 French sides to play away from home against an English opponent in Europe have managed to win, with 14 of those ending in defeats (D1). Indeed, the last such victory was by Paris SG in December 2020 against Manchester United (3-1 in the UEFA Champions League).
- Liverpool have progressed from each of their last 14 UEFA Champions League knockout stage ties having won the first leg, with Bayer Leverkusen in 2001-02 (quarter-finals) the last side to eliminate them after the Reds had taken an advantage into the second leg (Liverpool won first leg 1-0, lost 2-4 in the second).
- Paris SG have managed to progress from two of their previous five UEFA Champions League knockout stage ties after losing the first leg, coming back to beat Borussia Dortmund on aggregate in the 2019-20 last 16 (3-2) and Barcelona in the 2023-24 quarter-finals (6-4).
- Liverpool have won all four of their home games in the UEFA Champions League this season. Should they claim another victory here, Arne Slot would become the first manager to win each of his first five home matches in charge of an English side in the competition.
- Paris SG have held their opponents to under one expected goal on nine occasions in the UEFA Champions League this season (including in the first leg v Liverpool); the most of any side. Indeed, Liverpool’s two shots in the first meeting (0.27 xG) were their fewest in a knockout stage game in the competition on record (since 2003-04).
- Paris SG players combined to complete 19 dribbles in the first leg of this tie; the most by a team in a UEFA Champions League game against Liverpool since Porto in March 2018 (21). Indeed, the two highest game totals by a side in the knockout stages of the competition this term have both been by Paris SG: 20 v Brest (play-off round) and 19 v Liverpool (round of 16).
- Paris SG’s Vitinha has completed 474 passes under high-intensity pressure in the UEFA Champions League this season, 100 more than the player with the next-most (Joshua Kimmich, 374). Indeed, 49 of those came against Liverpool last time out; the most in a knockout stage in the competition this term.
- Liverpool’s Mohamed Salah has played more games without scoring against Paris SG than against any other opponent in his UEFA Champions League career (3). In the first leg of this tie, Salah failed to attempt a shot in a game for just the second time as a Liverpool player in this competition (previously v Real Madrid in March 2023, which was also in the round of 16).
- Liverpool’s Alisson made nine saves in the first leg against Paris SG last week, helping his side to keep a clean sheet in the process. The most saves on record (since 2003-04) by a goalkeeper without conceding over two legs of a UEFA Champions League knockout stage is 12, achieved by Gianluigi Buffon in 2012-13 (12 v Celtic) Hugo Lloris in 2018-19 (12 v Borussia Dortmund).
Odds correct at 1525 GMT (03/03/25)
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