Football betting tips: Champions League
1.5pts Raphinha 1+ shot on target from outside the box at 13/10 (Betfair)
1.5pt Lamine Yamal 2+ shots from outside the box at 17/10 (Betfair)
1pt Eric Garcia to be carded at 11/2 (Sky Bet)
BuildABet @ 30/1
- Raphinha 1+ shot on target
- Lamine Yamal 1+ shot on target
- Marcus Thuram to score anytime
- Eric Garcia to be carded
Well, the first leg between these two was pretty special. A breath-taking game of football that yielded moments of utter brilliance, some luck and six goals in total.
Let's hope the second leg delivers something similar.
Both Inter and Barcelona rotate heavily at the weekend in their respective league games, both winning against struggling sides, meaning both sets of players should be well-rested ahead of this second leg.
That should help in the wish of this being another high-scoring, end-to-end thriller, as does the tie being finely poised, as whoever goes behind will have to open up to try and get back level.
What are the best bets?
Barcelona have som selection headaches ahead of this game, and not in a good way.
Left-back Alejandro Balde is nearing full fitness and could feature on the bench, but with Jules Kounde injured as well, the Catalonians will be without both starting full-backs.
Last week Hansi Flick opted to play Gerard Martin at left-back though he was hooked at half-time in a move that saw Inigo Martinez move to the left of the back four, with it being ERIC GARCIA brought on in the first 45 to replace the injured Kounde.
It could very well be that Flick sticks with the same back four that played for most of the second half (Garcia-Cubarsi-Araujo-Martinez), with Barca requring more height and aerial strength to deal with Inter's physicality from set-pieces.
Should Flick do that, and should Garcia start, his price TO BE CARDED looks huge at 11/2.
In limited minutes this season, the equivalent of 15 full 90s, Garcia has averaged 1.41 fouls per 90 and been carded four times (0.26 per 90). That immediately makes the 11/2 about him collecting another here value, and that's before we factor in the refereeing appointment and the opponent.
The man in the middle is Szymon Marciniak, and the Pole has shown he can go card crazy when required. In his last two Champions League games he's dished out 13 yellows and two reds. I expect this game to see more cards than the first leg (2) which was officiated by a lenient ref in a game which didn't have the same level of stakes as this one.
I also think this is a great bet because, if I'm Inter and Inzaghi, I'm targeting Garcia, whether he plays right-back, centre-back or left-back. As unkind as it is to say, Garcia is the weak link should he start for Barcelona, so I believe he will have a lot of defending to do on Tuesday with the Italians attacking down his flank with Federico Dimarco, and underlapping Alessandro Bastoni and a channel-running Mehdi Taremi - who looked a threat as a first leg sub.
There were signs that Inter deployed such a tactic in Catalonia, with Garcia making two fouls in his 58 minutes of action.
Think outside the box
I expect the second leg to be played in a very similar pattern to the first; Barcelona dominating possession and territory, generally struggling to carve out good opportunities against a compact low-block, with Inter looking to counter in transition.
Inter are incredible at defending their own box, happy to give up plenty of shots from distance, backing themselves to block the shot or their keeper to save a low-probability effort.
That was the case in the first leg, with eight of Barca's 19 shots coming from range, and we should witness more of the same at San Siro, meaning prices around RAPHINHA 1+ SHOT ON TARGET FROM OUTSIDE THE BOX and LAMINE YAMAL 2+ SHOTS FROM OUTSIDE THE BOX stand out.
Raphinha took four shots from outside the box in the first leg, hitting the target three times, while Yamal fired two shots from range. We just need a repeat here. Easy peasy right?
Season long data highlights how trigger happy Barca's two wingers are, with Raphinha averaging 1.96 shots and 0.73 shots on target per 90 from outside the box in the Champions League, while Yamal has averaged the same 1.96 shots per 90 from outside the box.
With Inter to sit deep and frustrate once again, attacking shots from distance in the betting markets looks a good way in.
Team news
Inter suffered a big blow last week with top scorer Lautaro Martinez likely out for this second leg. That means one of Mehdi Taremi or Marko Arnautovic will partner Marcus Thuram up front.
The Italian side will also be without Benjamin Pavard, though Hakan Calhanoglu is available. Simone Inzaghi's side will be well-rested after he rang the changes at the weekend.
Barcelona also rotated heavily at the weekend, but the win at Real Valladolid did see Marc-Andre ter Stegen return from a lengthy injury lay-off. Flick has a decision to make whether to stick with Wojciech Szczesny or start his number one here.
Jules Kounde will be absent through injury having come off in the first leg, and it's expected that Eric Garcia will start at right-back, though the Spanish giants could welcome back Robert Lewandowski and Alejandro Balde, though the pair will likely start on the bench.
Predicted line-ups
Inter: Sommer; Bisseck, Acerbi, Bastoni; Dumfries, Barella, Calhanoglu, Mkhitaryan, Dimarco; Taremi, Thuram
Barcelona: Szczesny; Garcia, Araujo, Cubarsi, Martinez; De Jong, Pedri; Yamal, Olmo, Raphinha; Torres
Match facts
- This will be the 18th major European meeting between Internazionale and Barcelona, with only Bayern Munich vs Real Madrid (28), Juventus vs Real Madrid (21) and Inter vs Real Madrid (19) played more often in history. Each of the last two games between the teams have ended 3-3, in the UEFA Champions League in October 2022 and this season’s first leg.
- Barcelona have won just one of their six away UEFA Champions League matches against Internazionale (D3 L2), a 2-1 win in December 2019. Overall, Barca have managed just five wins in 24 away games in Italy (21%), their lowest win ratio in any non-Spanish nation in the competition.
- The first leg between Internazionale and Barcelona ended 3-3. Only three UEFA Champions League semi-finals have seen 10+ goals scored on aggregate: Juventus 6-4 Monaco (1997-98), Liverpool 7-6 Roma (2017-18) and Real Madrid 6-5 Man City (2021-22).
- Internazionale are looking to reach their third UEFA Champions League final since 1992-93 (also 2010 and 2023), while for Barcelona it would be their sixth final (1994, 2006, 2009, 2011, 2015), drawing level with Bayern Munich, Milan and Juventus for finals reached and behind only Real Madrid (9).
- Barcelona have scored 40 goals in this season’s UEFA Champions League, the most by a side in a season since Bayern Munich in 2019-20 (43). The only other teams to score more than 40 in a season are Barca themselves in 1999-00 (45), Real Madrid in 2013-14 (41) and Liverpool in 2017-18 (41).
- Internazionale are unbeaten in their last 15 home UEFA Champions League matches (W12 D3), their best unbeaten home streak in major European competition since a run of 27 between 1980 and 1987. They’ve also won nine of their last 11 home semi-final matches in Europe (D1 L1).
- Raphinha has had a hand in 20 goals in this season’s UEFA Champions League (12 goals, 8 assists), with only Cristiano Ronaldo in 2013-14 (17 goals, 4 assists) having more in one season. The only player to assist more goals in a campaign was Luís Figo, also for Barcelona, in 1999-00 (9).
- After one goal in his first 39 UEFA Champions League appearances, Internazionale’s Denzel Dumfries scored twice in the first leg. Should either he or teammate Marcus Thuram score in this game, they’d be the first to score in both legs of a European Cup semi-final for Inter since Giacinto Facchetti in 1966-67.
- Barcelona’s Lamine Yamal has scored five UEFA Champions League goals this season, with only Erling Haaland (10 in 2019-20), Kylian Mbappe (6 in 2016-17) and Raúl (6 in 1995/96) scoring more in a season as a teenager. Yamal’s 44 shots, 19 shots on target and 78 dribbles are all the most Opta has on record since 2003-04 by a teenager in a season.
- Pedri has completed 721 passes in this season’s UEFA Champions League, the most by a Spanish midfielder in a season for Barcelona since Sergio Busquets in 2018-19 (903). He’s also made 18 line-breaking passes leading to a shot, the most of any player still left in the competition.
Odds correct at 1725 BST (05/05/25)
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