Football betting tips: Champions League
1pt Arsenal to win at 23/10 (General)
This is a genuine Champions League clash. The dominant force of German football meeting the best England has to offer for the second season in a row. This time, the Bavarians hold the home advantage.
But just how much of an advantage will that be? A significant one when you look at their results. Leipzig were thrashed 6-1 last time out with Union Berlin on the end of a 7-0 hammering just before the international break. In this competition, Bodo/Glimt beaten 5-0.
An eye-watering total of 122 goals across 34 league games last season should strike fear into any side in world football - and that's before realising they're on a better goals-per-game rate across the opening exchanges of the current campaign.
But they have some key absentees here. Michael Olise is serving a yellow card suspension while Jamal Musiala continues to battle a muscle injury. The former of that pair a more obvious one yet it does deplete their attacking strength by also losing someone capable of starting or supporting.
Even if they were at full strength, you'd have to give serious thought to the potential of Arsenal being the one defence which can neutralise an otherwise near-unstoppable unit. We saw this potential in the meeting last season.
That may well have been at the Emirates and Bayern did find the net but they were unusually quiet in an attacking sense. The Gunners limited them to just 0.65 expected goals (xG) - for comparison, they averaged 2.89 xG per Bundesliga and Champions League outing in 25/26.
It was a team used to posting an average just shy of 19 shots per outing. In north London, they could only muster together eight. Two of those were on target; their average was 8.38.
And that was with Arsenal having influential defender Gabriel Magalhães missing through injury. The Bayern XI from that night will be near identical here without Olise on the right side of their attack.
Arsenal went off odds-on in that meeting. They were around 7/4 to win in 90 minutes on neutral ground against PSG in the final. The away trip to Atletico Madrid in the semi-final saw them priced at 6/5.
There's the risk of a spectacular backfire when going against a side capable of scoring seven goals at the click of a finger, but the 23/10 general price on an ARSENAL WIN here is a difficult one to ignore. I'm happy enough to accept you may look a bit daft if they've found a way to net three or four against this defence.
But again, in a pub discussion where the question 'who would stop Bayern Munich?' is asked, you'd likely respond with 'Mikel Arteta's Arsenal'.
No side has conceded fewer goals in the Premier League this season. No side came close to doing it last season either. Oh, add the 24/25 campaign to that. And 23/24 while you're at it.
Two clean sheets in Europe so far. Four conceded in eight League Stage outings last season (again, the best defence) - three conceded in seven knockout games after that.
And while the focus here is on Arsenal's defence, Bayern's has shown some vulnerability at times. I'd back the hosts to prevail in a 'basketball' style contest but the Gunners are more than capable of firing in a couple themselves - a 2-0 lead ideal for the increasing number of bookmakers offering a 'two up' style payout as well.
Augsburg scored twice recently. Viking hit three. Away contests of course but enough to remind us that talented sides can punish this Bayern back line - PSG did that on five occasions in one leg of their semi-final encounter last season.
Arteta will want his side to keep it tight though and they've shown time and time again their ability to allow little to their opponents. Given the prices on offer, I'm hoping for more of that on Wednesday night.
Odds correct at 14:15 BST (19/10/26)
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