Football betting tips: Champions League
1.5pts Aston Villa +2 handicap at 13/10 (General)
1pt Nicolas Jackson to score anytime at 5/2 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
1pt Johan Manzambi to score or assist at 9/4 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
A sluggish second-half performance in Saturday's 1-1 draw with Fulham, just days after a second string were knocked out of the Carabao Cup at Bournemouth, should not have come as a huge surprise for Europa League holders Aston Villa.
As has become customary, Unai Emery has quickly rebuilt his team and they had shrugged off a slow start to go W7 D1 in all competitions before last week's minor blip.
Those two fixtures are the underwhelming filling of the kind of sandwich that brings the best out of Villa's world-class manager. They beat Manchester City at home 10 days ago and now head to the Nou Camp to face Barcelona.
Emery's side have won all three Champions League games so far against fairly weak opposition (Club Brugge, Fenerbahce and Viking) but, if two years ago is anything to go by, they will relish the chance to face Europe's elite.
Villa impressively qualified in the top eight in 24/25, beating Bayern Munich 1-0 at Villa Park in the league phase. Their other two defeats were also by 1-0 scorelines.
In the quarter-finals they led PSG away from home before a stoppage-time goal saw them lose 3-1. They then roared back from 2-0 down to win the second leg 3-2 and missed a glut of chances in the final half-hour.
Emery, a five-time Europa League winner, is an expert in European competition, with his gameplans rarely anything other than spot on. His teams are usually right in the contest, even when they don't manage to win.
None of that appears to be factored into the price, with Barcelona overwhelming 1/4 favourites.
There is no denying Hansi Flick's men are an excellent team, but La Liga is not an excellent division, meaning we shouldn't read too much into their W10 L1 domestic record this season.
Ten days ago they lost the Clasico 2-1 at home, with Jose Mourinho employing precisely the kind of counter-attacking tactics we can expect Emery to use to good effect on Tuesday.
Despite having 62% possession and 18 shots to Real Madrid's 10, Barca created fewer big chances (2-4) and recorded significantly less xG (1.19-1.94).
They can be exploited defensively, not only because of their open style of play but also because of a number of potential absentees in their backline. Even those passed fit may not be fully match sharp.
PSG beat them 4-2 in their last Champions League outing and, despite a wonderful start to the season, Barcelona have kept just one clean sheet in their past 10 matches, conceding 15 goals in the process.
Flick may also have one eye on this weekend's trip to Atletico Madrid in La Liga when deciding how risky to be with Tuesday's selection.
There are several tempting ways to get ASTON VILLA onside, with the double chance at 7/2 and the away win at 9/1, but Barcelona have lost just three times at home since the start of last season - to Real Madrid and PSG, and to Atletico in a game in which Pau Cubarsi was sent off in the first half.
My preference is to take the 13/10 about the +2 HANDICAP and trust Emery's men not to be thrashed.
For us, a one-goal Villa defeat would be a winner. The +2 Asian Handicap is available at 5/6, with a two-goal defeat seeing your stake returned, but at these prices I prefer to take a smaller stake and the bigger price.
In 30 Champions League and Europa League games under Emery, Villa have only lost by more than a goal once - the aforementioned trip to PSG.
Barcelona's defensive shortcomings also makes goals worth considering, offering an alternative route into the game should Villa be blown away but still manage to exploit their opponents' weaknesses.
In the last six games in which both NICOLAS JACKSON and JOHAN MANZAMBI have started, they have contributed eight goals and three assists between them. Nine of Villa's 13 goals in that period have involved at least one of the duo.
The most straightforward approach is to back JACKSON TO SCORE ANYTIME at 5/2 and MANZAMBI TO SCORE OR ASSIST at 9/4.
Jackson has eight goals and no assists so far this season, while his team-mate has an even 3-3 split.
Odds correct at 14:00 GMT (2/11/26)
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