Football betting tips: Champions League
2pts Myles Lewis-Skelly to win 2+ fouls at 5/6 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
1.5pts Nuno Mendes to win 2+ fouls at 7/5 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
1.5pts PSG 14+ total shots at 6/5 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
BuildABet @ 9/1
- Myles Lewis-Skelly to win 2+ fouls
- Nuno Mendes win 2+ fouls
- PSG 14+ total shots
- Khvicha Kvaratskhelia 1+ shot on target
What a mouthwatering Champions League semi-final we have in store.
PSG head to the Emirates looking to eliminate the third straight English side having already seen off Liverpool and Aston Villa, while Arsenal have just eliminated the reigning champions Real Madrid.
The Gunners will be well rested having not played for nearly a week. Les Parisiens, meanwhile, head to London on the back of their first league defeat of the season, losing 3-1 at home to Nice. They have in fact won only one of three Ligue 1 games since being outplayed by Villa in the second leg of their quarter-final.
Fresh from dispatching Madrid 5-1 on aggregate Arsenal won't fear anyone, especially a PSG side they beat 2-0 earlier in the campaign.
That being said, PSG have come a long way since then, and Arsenal are without Kai Havertz, Gabriel and Thomas Partey for this first leg - the spine of the team in the last head-to-head.
What are the best bets?
You really could make a case for either side winning here. Arsenal's defence and defensive shape is elite, even with absences, and they could thwart a high-powered attack. PSG's energy, industry and directness could just be too good for the Gunners.
Ultimately, I'll leave the main markets alone and head to the player props.
MYLES LEWIS-SKELLY has been incredible this season and his price TO WIN 2+ FOULS looks huge.
He appears to have mastered the art of being fouled. The 18-year-old is savvy beyond his years, more than happy to flop to the ground at the slightest contact, and this has led to some consistent numbers.
Lewis-Skelly has been fouled 47 times in his last 19 starts for the Gunners, averaging a huge 2.83 per 90, with the 2+ line landing in 15 of those 19 starts.
He'll more than likely be up against fellow youngster Désiré Doué, who as well as being a very talented players, is an intense presser. He's averaged 1.52 fouls committed per 90, so looks an ideal dance partner for Lewis-Skelly.
I'll also have the same bet on PSG's left-back, NUNO MENDES, who is 7/5 TO WIN 2+ FOULS.
Mendes is one of PSG's main attacking outlets, scoring in both legs against Aston Villa, and he averages 1.81 fouls won per 90 in the Champions League this season.
He won two fouls in both legs against Villa, and this bet has won in eight of of his last 10 UCL appearances. Again, like Lewis-Skelly, he has a good opponent in Bukayo Saka.
Saka, while known for drawing fouls, also dishes them out with his persistent harrying and pressing, while the entire right side of Arsenal are capable of contributing.
The final selection is for PSG 14+ TOTAL SHOTS, with the line looking incredibly low for such a free-shooting side.
Les Parisiens fired 32 at the weekend against Nice, hit 29 and 14 in two legs against Aston Villa, 27 and 21 in two legs against Liverpool and 15 and 20 in two legs against Brest.
In the Champions League they are averaging 19.6 shots per game, with this bet landing in all of their last nine UCL games.
I was close to leaving this out, but the absence of Thomas Partey for this first leg is a massive blow to Arsenal. Partey's legs are vital to putting out fires and chasing down opponents, and without him the Arsenal midfield is much less mobile.
Mikel Merino is most likely to play alongside Declan Rice and Martin Odegaard with Jorginho a doubt, and I just don't think that trio will be able to halt PSG getting into shooting positions; it's fair to say Les Parisiens don't need too much encouragement to pull the trigger.
Team news
Thomas Partey will be a big loss for Arsenal, with the Ghanaian suspended after collecting a yellow card in the second leg against Real Madrid. Jorginho looks set to be out for a few weeks at least, meaning stand-in striker Mikel Merino could be tasked with playing in midfield, with Declan Rice playing in Partey's deeper role.
Leandro Trossard is likely to start up front in that case, flanked by Gabriel Martinelli and Bukayo Saka.
Ben White is fit should he be called upon, though Arsenal still have a long injury list with all of Riccardo Calafiori, Gabriel, Kai Havertz, Takehiro Tomiyasu and Gabriel Jesus out for the season.
In contrast PSG have a clean bill of health as they head to London. That means Les Parisiens should field the same XI that started at the weekend against Nice, and the same one that started against Aston Villa, with the only question being whether Luis Enrique opts for Désiré Doué or Bradley Barcola out wide.
Predicted line-ups
Arsenal: Raya; Timber, Saliba, Kiwior, Lewis-Skelly; Odegaard, Rice, Merino; Saka, Trossard, Martinelli.
Paris Saint-Germain: Donnarumma; Hakimi, Marquinhos, Pacho, Mendes; Ruiz, Vitinha, Neves; Doué, Dembele, Kvaratskhelia.
Odds correct at 1445 BST (28/4/25)
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