Champions League betting preview: Alex Keble's best bets and tactical predictions for Man City v Lyon
Tactics expert Alex Keble previews Man City's quarter-final with Lyon, including some best bets and unique insight.
Three down, one to go, and it's Manchester City's turn as they face Lyon with Bayern Munich waiting in the semi-finals.
Manchester City v Lyon (Saturday, August 15)
The least tactically interesting game ought to be on Saturday as Manchester City face Lyon with a technical, tactical, and physical advantage over the French outfit.
Rudi Garcia’s side were leggy in their 2-1 defeat to Juventus, benefitting from a fortunate penalty decision and Juve’s capitulation in the final days of Maurizio Sarri, as they wrestled with fitness issues five months after their last competitive game.
Another sluggish performance is to be expected this weekend, and given Garcia’s approach centres on quick transitions through the middle of the park, with Houssem Aouar releasing Memphis Depay or Moussa Dembele, Man City should comfortably hold them at arm’s length.
That’s exactly what Pep Guardiola did against a similarly jaded Real Madrid, using the increasingly reliable double pivot of Ilkay Gundogan and Rodri to protect the defence and control the match.
Lyon will be forced to sit back as Man City dominate possession, and that can only go one way.
City, in direct contrast to Lyon, are in their groove, such was the seamless move from Premier League football to the resumption of the Champions League.
Barcelona v Bayern Munich (Friday, August 14)
Don’t let Lionel Messi’s brilliance against Napoli fool you: this is a mess of a Barcelona team.
Quique Setien’s 4-3-1-2 is too narrow and unbalanced and his players are too old for Barca to beat a rampant Bayern Munich on Friday.
Luis Suarez and Lionel Messi don’t press, while Antoine Griezmann isn’t much better, which leaves Barcelona maddeningly open to opponents simply carving them open.
There is no support for the full-backs from the front three, meaning any high-quality opposition can flourish either on the outside of the three-man midfield or, if those midfielders scramble across to help the full-back, straight through the middle.
Chelsea and Tottenham Hotspur supporters know just how lethal, how ruthless, Bayern Munich can be if given space to run through midfield.
Serge Gnabry and Ivan Perisic – either out wide or cutting infield – can provide the sudden bursts of energy that will surely tear this Barcelona team to shreds.
What’s more, Bayern’s overlapping full-backs can overwhelm their opposite numbers, leading to plenty of balls put into the box towards Robert Lewandowski.
Best bet: Back Bayern to beat Barcelona with a -1 handicap at 9/4
RB Leipzig v Atletico Madrid (Thursday, August 13)
A disappointing domestic campaign for Atletico Madrid has been saved by their success in Europe, where Diego Simeone has recaptured the form – and tactical strategy – of his best years.
This is fundamentally a cup team, after all, with Simeone’s doggedly reactive football designed primarily to negate royalty. RB Leipzig might not be that, but as Atleti’s back-to-back victories over Liverpool show, they can win a war of attrition.
Julian Nagelsmann plays gegenpressing football in the Jurgen Klopp mould, using high pressing to win the ball back in dangerous areas and break at speed into the final third, creating counter-attacking-style situations in all areas of the pitch. The idea is to play as vertically as possible, making incisive passes to forwards who take the ball on the half-turn, always seeking space, while Nagelsmann’s 3-5-2 looks to exploit the advantages wing-backs often find when arriving late in the final third.
Atletico won’t be lured into traps. They won’t leave space in behind, either, instead playing with a conservatism and compression between the lines that ought to limit Leizpig’s capacity to suddenly increase the tempo.
Simeone thrives on big nights like this, while Leipzig’s relative inexperience is made all the worse for Timo Werner’s absence. He is the crucial linchpin, dropping off the front line to start moves before swivelling in behind to end them.
Without Werner, Leipzig are already neutered. That should mean Atletico can stifle and suffocate, grinding their way to the semi-finals.
Best bet: Back Atletico to win at 6/4
Paris Saint-German v Atalanta (Wednesday, August 12)
We kick-off with the most entertaining of the four ties. Thomas Tuchel’s Paris Saint-Germain have developed into a tactically astute side in his dynamic formation, but there are fatal flaws that remain within it that could favour the Italians, whereas Atalanta’s own aggressive tactical strategy may leave themselves exposed to PSG’s greatest strengths. There will surely be goals.
Tuchel’s 4-2-2-2 morphs into a 2-3-5 when in possession, with one full-back dropping into midfield to help Idrissa Gueye and Marco Verratti distribute into the final third as that 2-3 shape creates multiple triangular passing options in the middle of the park.
From here, the idea is to hit a fluid front five that alternate dropping off and making runs in behind, four of them bunching together on one side while the fifth lurks – unmarked, out of sight – on the other flank.
Atalanta’s unusual man-to-man marking system in open play could prove too chaotic for such a complex PSG attack.
Gan Piero Gasparini’s 3-4-1-2 sees all three centre-backs hunting for the ball, stepping out of the back line where necessary as they go man for man with the attackers.
Perhaps the back five will simply cover the PSG front five, but more likely the intelligent movement from the French champions will pull Atalanta out of shape.
But there’s one problem. PSG generally become unstuck when up against strong high-pressers like Atalanta, with Verratti and Gueye getting isolated in midfield as the front five wait for these two to turn sharply and out-manoeuvre the press.
Atalanta’s assertive philosophy, then, can force PSG into making mistakes – and lead to defensive mistakes at the other end.
Best bet: Back over 4.5 goals at 11/4
Odds correct as of 0900 BST on 11/08/20
Follow Sporting Life on social - find us on Facebook here or tweet @SportingLifeFC
Related football content
Responsible gambling
We are committed in our support of responsible gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133, or visit begambleaware.org.
Further support and information can be found at GamCare and gamblingtherapy.org.
MOST READ FOOTBALL
FOOTBALL TIPS
