Football betting tips: Champions League final
1pt Denzel Dumfries to be carded at 7/2 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
1pt Achraf Hakimi 1+ assists at 6/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
1pt Lautaro Martinez to win Opta's Player of the Match at 25/1 (Sky Bet)
1pt Marcus Thuram to win Opta's Player of the Match at 66/1 (Sky Bet)
0.5pt Nuno Mendes to score first at 40/1 (Sky Bet)
0.5pt Nuno Mendes to score anytime at 16/1 (Sky Bet)
Jake Osgathorpe
Having put up Inter to win the whole competition just ahead of the last 16, I'll be steering clear of the 1X2 or 'to lift the trophy' markets here - I'm not one to hedge after all.
I am nervous for the outright bet given what PSG have shown us this season, especially in this competition, but in Inter we have an experienced side - the oldest side in the UCL this season according to average age - who were beaten finalists a few years ago.
On that occasion it was Manchester City who beat them, winning a treble in the process, and PSG can replicate that feat with victory in Munich, but if you think back to that final, Inter were extremely well set up by Simone Inzaghi, and were the better team (xG: MCI 0.99 - 1.68 INT).
It wouldn't be a surprise to see them put on a similarly impressive performance here, seemingly against the odds.
The value here though could lie in the cards markets, that's because the referee for this final is Istvan Kovacs, and while he has been keeping his cards in his pocket a little bit more this season, the last two European finals he's overseen have seen him flash seven (UEL final 23/24) and five (UECL final 21/22) cards.
DENZEL DUMFRIES isn't afraid of getting a caution, and he looks a cracking bet at 7/2.
The flying-Dutchman has picked up eight cards across all competitions this season, averaging 0.23 cards per 90, but this bet comes alive due to his likely opponents - Nuno Mendes and Khvicha Kvaratskhelia - who will push him back and force him into one-v-one situations.
The majority of Dumfries' cards this season have come in big games too which bodes well, being booked in the Derby d'Italia (vs Juventus), the Italian Super Cup final (vs Milan), the Milan derby and earlier in the season against title rivals and eventual champions Napoli when directly facing Kvaratskhelia.
On that occasion Dumfries committed four fouls, three on Kvaratskhelia, and it wouldn't be a surprise to see a similar outcome here.
Odds correct at 1600 BST (29/5/25)
Joe Townsend
So much focus has been placed on the ball-playing ability of PSG's midfield and the attacking brilliance of their forward line that the crucial role of their full-backs during this run to the Champions League final has possibly gone a little under the radar.
Achraf Hakimi and NUNO MENDES have contributed seven goals between them, with the former also providing five assists.
MENDES is certainly over-performing, scoring with all four of his shots on target in the competition and have less than have as many attempts on goal as his team-mate (34 to 15).
However, he remains the highest scoring defender in this season's Champions League, and yet can be backed at 16/1 TO SCORE ANYTIME and 40/1 TO SCORE FIRST.
- CLICK HERE to back Nuno Mendes to score anytime with Sky Bet
- CLICK HERE to back Nuno Mendes to score first with Sky Bet
Hakimi is generally 6/1 to find the net at the Allianz Arena, while opposition wing-back Denzel Dumfries, whose only two goals in Europe this term came in the opening leg of a madcap semi-final against Barcelona, is 7s.
At the prices, backing the Portuguese defender to continue his hot streak is therefore advised.
Mendes could also benefit greatly from the space left by Inter's wing-back set-up, with it perhaps no surprise Barcelona's full-backs provided three goal involvements in the second leg of their last-four tie.
Odds correct at 1645 BST (29/5/25)
Tom Carnduff
I'll be watching this game with a keen interest having backed Barcelona's Raphinha to register the most assists at 33/1 before the group stage began.
He's FOUR clear of ACHRAF HAKIMI who is the closest active player to him. I'm hoping I'll be alright and that the right-back doesn't have the greatest performance a final has ever seen.
I do think he'll get involved again though and the 6/1 for 1+ ASSISTS looks a tad generous based on his returns throughout the campaign.
Hakimi sits on five but hasn't managed to register one across the past few rounds. Still, he has been creating opportunities for others.
The second leg win over Arsenal in the semi-final ended a 13-game run of creating at least one chance. Over the two legs against Liverpool, Hakimi returned seven and yet didn't manage to claim an assist.
A regular for PSG, 47 appearances in all competitions have produced a considerable 14 assists and if the French giants are to strike, there's every chance Hakimi has some sort of involvement.
It's certainly one of interest at 6s, with the 5/1 and above available elsewhere more than a fine price too.
Odds correct at 1000 BST (30/05/25)
Jimmy 'The Punt' Cantrill
The Champions League final is good because it usually means firms offer Opta’s Player of the Match market.
This is settled by Opta’s own rating system and is not at all related to who wins the Player of the Match award given by the broadcasters or what not.
Opta’s data adds up points for the good things a player does in the match (scoring a goal, setting one up, making an interception, ect) and deducts points for errors (receiving a card, being offside, conceding a foul, ect). The player with the most points wins the accolade.
I like this market because we are not relying on the opinion of a co-commentator or a public vote. It is stat oriented which in theory makes Opta’s market easier to predict, although that doesn’t mean I am going to successfully call it.
The fact Inter are the outsiders must be the main reason you can get some big ol’ prices on their players to win OPTA’S MAN OF THE MATCH and I have been suckered in by their frontlines prices.
LAUTARO MARTINEZ is 25/1 and his strike partner MARCUS THURAM is 66/1.
- CLICK HERE to back Lautaro Martinez to win Opta’s Player of the Match with Sky Bet
- CLICK HERE to back Marcus Thuram to win Opta’s Player of the Match with Sky Bet
Whoscored uses Opta’s data to award their player of the match and according to that site Martinez has won the award four times in nine Champions League starts, two of which coming in the Quarter-final games against Bayern Munich.
Martinez has won it eight times in 40 domestic starts this term (20%) which translates to a price of 4/1.
Thuram has won the award six times in 37 Champions League and Serie A starts and although the majority came in the latter, his price is simply too big.
Odds correct at 1230 BST (30/05/25)
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