Football betting tips: Champions League
20:00 - Bodo/Glimt vs Inter
1.5pts Bodo/Glimt or draw at 5/4 (Betway)
20:00 - Club Brugge vs Atletico Madrid
1pt Club Bruge draw no bet at 15/8 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
1pt Club Brugge to score 2+ goals at 7/4 (Sky Bet)
20:00 - Longshot double
0.25pts Bodo/Glimt and Club Brugge to both win at 19/1 (Betfred)
Bodo/Glimt vs Inter Milan
- Kick-off: Wednesday, 20:00 GMT
- TV: TNT Sports 1
- Live odds, form and stats
The Bodo/Glimt fairytale continues. After journeying to the semi-final of the Europa League last season, the Norwegian side looked down and out of the Champions League after five games, with trips to Dortmund and Atletico either side of a home game of Manchester City to finish the campaign.
No one expected them to get anything from that trio of games, yet they picked up seven points, scoring twice or more in all three, to sneak into the play-off round. It's a remarkable achievement, and you'd be a brave man to take them on in this first leg.
Inter are the visitors and they are the best team in Italy, but I'm willing to back BODO OR DRAW at 5/4. It does scare me a tad that Inter have the capability to make this bet look silly, but there is a lot in favour of the hosts.
Playing in the arctic circle, the climate will be unlike anything Inter are used to, and the same goes for the pitch, which is plastic and is a real leveller against elite opponents not used to it. In this competition they have held Tottenham and beat City in Bodo, while being unfortunate to lose to Monaco.
In fact, they have won the xG battle in three of their four home games in this competition, all games against sides who finished in the top 24 of the league phase.
The final thing that has me wanting to back the hosts is freshness. The Norwegian league finished back in November, so Bodo haven't had the rigours of midweek-weekend-midweek-weekend football like so many other teams in Europe, and like opponents Inter.
You may look at that as a negative, that the players may be out of practice, but it didn't bother them against both Manchester City and Atletico Madrid in late January. And with the light schedule, it gives them even more time to game plan for a specific opponent, to come up with tactical tweaks that can hurt them.
Inter meanwhile have played 12 games in 43 days, a game every 3.5 days, so could have issues with fatigue as well as a limited time to prep for this game.
Add in the need for Bodo to make their home advantage count ahead of a trip to Italy, and we should see the very best of Bodo.
Club Brugge vs Atletico Madrid
- Kick-off: Wednesday, 20:00 GMT
- TV: TNT Sports 1
- Live odds, form and stats
Will the real Atletico please stand up? Diego Simeone's men have been Jekyll and Hyde in recent games, registering huge wins in the Copa del Rey against Real Betis (5-0) and Barcelona (4-0), but losing at home to Bodo/Glimt in the Champions League and Real Betis in the league, before Rayo Vallecano turned them over 3-0 at the weekend.
They are inconsistent, with even their consistent home form now a thing of the past. They shouldn't be odds-on in Brugge against a very strong home side.
Club Brugge won two and drew one of their four home Champions League games, the only blemish on their record a 3-0 defeat to table toppers Arsenal, while it is worth noting that their draw came against Barcelona (3-3).
They have goals in them, netting 10 times at home in the UCL, and we'll chance BRUGGE TO SCORE 2+ GOALS at 7/4 here. They have the firepower and simply have to try and take a lead back to Spain for the second leg to have any chance of advancing.
Brugge were in this play-off round last season after sneaking into the top 24 and went on to beat ninth-placed Atalanta 2-1 at home, and a similar result and scoreline wouldn't be a surprise given Atletico's struggles on the road.
Across the UCL and La Liga, Simeone's men have won just four of 16 on their travels with a negative xG process (1.16 xGF, 1.35 xGA per game), so we'll also back CLUB BRUGGE TO WIN DRAW NO BET at 15/8.
Longshot double
We'll also have a small bet on both BODO/GLIMT AND CLUB BRUGGE to win at 19/1.
With both not fancied to qualify, if they are to have any chance they simply have to win their home leg, and both are in excellent form in front of their own fans.
We saw two of the underdogs prevail in the first leg of the play-off round last season, with Feyenoord (3/1) beating Milan and Brugge (5/2) upsetting Atalanta on the same night, so let's hope we get the same again a year later.
Odds correct at 16:46 GMT (16/02/26)
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