Football betting tips: Carabao Cup
1pt Finley Potter to commit 2+ fouls at 11/4 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
1pt Mark Helm to commit 2+ fouls at 3/1 (bet365)
Last season's Carabao Cup runners up Arsenal are back in cup action in midweek, as they travel to League Two Fleetwood. The reigning Premier League champions are an unsurprising 1/10 to win the game given the gulf between these sides.
The Gunners will rotate heavily for this game, but their second XI is phenomenal even for top flight standards. I mean, look at this predicted XI:
- Kepa; White, Mosquera, Salmon, Hincapie; Zubimendi, Lewis-Skelly; Dowman, Merino, Eze; Gyokeres
Young 17-year-old centre-back Marli Salmon is the only player there who isn't a recognisable name, and the other 10 players would all start in probably 17 of the other 19 Premier League teams.
So, a convincing win is likely here, especially given Fleetwood's recent struggles. The Fisherman have lost five of their last seven games in the fourth tier, with just one win in that time, while they rank 20th on xP in League Two and 23rd out of 24 on defensive metrics.
Minutes for Max Dowman brings the opportunity to back opposition fouls. The young starlet is a fantastic foul drawer and will likely run rings around Fleetwood's defenders.
He has started just five times for Arsenal over the last two seasons and has drawn 14 fouls, with his most recent outing in this competition against Ipswich where he drew two fouls from his opposing left-back.
Fleetwood play with a back three and FINLEY POTTER is the left-sided centre-back and he gets the nod at 11/4 TO COMMIT 2+ FOULS. There are contrasting reports as to who will be playing left-wing-back, be it Jake Batty or Danny Andrew. If it's the latter he should be backed too.
Potter looks a good match-up for this having made three fouls in the previous round against Championship side Sheffield United when facing tricky winger Romelle Donovan, who was fouled six times on the night.
The Fleetwood centre-back should clash with Dowman at times and that spells trouble, while he could also come into contact with Eberechi Eze and Viktor Gyokeres, both capable foul drawers in their own right too.
Sticking on the foul theme, we'll also back Fleetwood midfielder MARK HELM TO COMMIT 2+ FOULS at a big price of 3/1. Helm plays in an advanced midfield role and has made at least one foul in four of his last five, and on Tuesday is expected to come up against Myles Lewis-Skelly.
Lewis-Skelly is another excellent foul drawer, winning 2.67 fouls per 90 this season, and you have to expect Fleetwood to play aggressively here to try and rattle the visitors, which could mean some niggly fouls.
We also have the potential added bonus of Lewis-Skelly being replaced by Bruno Guimaraes as well, so we should get a decent run here.
It's worth noting too that both selections have super sub, so should our player get hooked the bet will run for the full 90.
Odds correct at 16:00 GMT (26/10/26)
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