Football betting tips: EFL Cup final
Jake Osgathorpe
3pts Under 2.5 goals at 17/20 (bet365)
Joe Townsend
1pt Gabriel Magalhaes to score anytime at 15/2 (General)
0.5pt to score first at 20/1 (General)
0.5pt William Saliba to score anytime at 16/1 (General)
0.25pt to score first at 40/1 (General)
0.5pt Ruben Dias to score anytime at 20/1 (Sky Bet, Paddy Power)
0.25pt to score first at 50/1 (General)
1pt Gabriel to win Player of the Match at 12/1 (bet365)
0.5pt Saliba to win Player of the Match at 16/1 (bet365)
0.5pt Dias to win Player of the Match at 16/1 (bet365)
Jimmy 'The Punt' Cantrill
1pt Man City win & James Trafford card at 20/1 (bet365, Coral, Ladbrokes)
1pt Man City win & Gianluigi Donnarumma card at 19/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
1pt Arsenal win & Kepa card at 17/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
1pt Arsenal win & David Raya card at 19/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
Tom Carnduff
1pt Over 5.5 second-half corners at 13/8 (bet365)
Jake Osgathorpe
These showpiece events rarely excite. Throw Arsenal into the mix and this could be one of the dullest in recent seasons.
That's no shade on the Gunners, who's defensive solidity is admirable, but in these sorts of games Mikel Arteta has shown he is rarely willing to take risks, quite happy to keep a clean sheet and look to nick a goal from a set-piece or some individual brilliance.
UNDER 2.5 GOALS at 17/20 is therefore a must bet. While under 1.5 is tempting too at 14/5, I'd rather just take a bigger stakes swing on two or fewer just in case a team goes 1-0 up, the opposition throw the kitchen sink and get sucker punched on the counter; see Arsenal 2-0 Everton last weekend.
Four of the last five Carabao Cup finals have gone under 2.5 goals, while seven of the last 10 Carabao and FA Cup finals at Wembley have featured no more than two goals. Four of the last six head-to-heads between Arteta and his mentor Pep Guardiola have also seen the unders hit.
What's striking about those encounters is just how few chances are created, suggesting the low number of goals is no fluke. Across the six matches, the pair have combined for just 9.8 xG in total, meaning each game on average has seen chances equating to just 1.63 xG.
That's staggeringly low. Throw in the fact this is a cup final, making tensions even higher and the risk-reward calculations even tougher, and it would be a huge surprise to see an end-to-end ding-dong or a one-sided win, even if Manchester City's defence is showing cracks.
Score prediction: Arsenal 1-0 Manchester City
Joe Townsend
Is the impossible really on? After drifting to 1000/1 in September, Arsenal are now an incredible 17/2 to win the quadruple.
They took another big step towards it by beating Bayer Leverkusen in midweek to book a Champions League quarter-final meeting with Sporting, but Sunday is when they can take a giant leap by winning a first piece of silverware in six years.
Having lost just three of 49 matches in all competitions this season, the Gunners are unsurprising 23/20 favourites to win in 90 minutes, and 8/11 to lift the trophy.
City, meanwhile, enter a cup final as outsiders for the first time in the Guardiola era, only adding further fuel to speculation that this summer could be when the greatest coach of all time decides to step aside; we said that last year.
This Wembley trip hasn't come at a great moment for them either, with just one win in their last five matches.
It's hard to see beyond an Arsenal triumph, but with Carabao Cup finals tending to be so tight I'd rather look elsewhere - four of the last 10 have gone to extra time and five of the last 11 have involved no more than a goal.
The remarkable consistency of match-winner is what I'm interested in, which dovetails perfectly with the Gunners' set-piece dominance.
All of the last four opening goals in this showpiece have been headers from dead-balls. Three have been from centre-backs (Aymeric Laporte, Virgil van Dijk and Dan Burn) with the other from defensive midfielder Casemiro.
In the three finals previous to that Vincent Kompany (2018) and Rodri (2020) scored the second goal of the game from a corner. The ties ended goalless in 2019 and 2022. Two years later a Van Dijk header in extra time gave Liverpool a 1-0 win.
Of these players Kompany, Casemiro, Van Dijk and Burn were also awarded Man of the Match - an accolade taken by centre-backs in six of the last 11 finals, including three for former City captain Kompany.
This run was started by Chelsea skipper John Terry in 2015 who, you guessed it, scored the opening goal.
Given his prolific nature (14 goals across the last three seasons) it therefore makes sense to back GABRIEL MAGALHAES TO SCORE ANYTIME, SCORE FIRST and TO WIN PLAYER OF THE MATCH at 15/2, 20/1 and 12/1 respectively.
His centre-back partner WILLIAM SALIBA is available at enormous prices in the same markets so is also backed but to reduced stakes.
While being set-piece experts in an attacking sense Arsenal have shown vulnerability defensively of late.
Bayer Leverkusen centre-back Robert Andrich, Wolves' wing-back Hugo Bueno, Brentford utility man Keane Lewis-Potter and Chelsea winger Alejandro Garnacho have all scored from corners or long throws against Arsenal since the turn of the year, while Piero Hincapie has also scored an own goal from a corner.
Most have come recently with four of those goals coming in their last 10 games.
When Tuesday's tie against Real Madrid was effectively over RUBEN DIAS was taken off at half-time to protect him for this match.
Marc Guehi is ineligible, Josko Gvardiol is injured and John Stones has started only twice since November, so Dias is the only virtual certainty to start at centre-back for City, likely alongside Abdukodir Khusanov.
DIAS has found the net twice already this season and is backed TO SCORE ANYTIME and TO SCORE FIRST at 20/1 and 50/1 and TO WIN PLAYER OF THE MATCH at 16/1.
The benefit of the player of the match selections is that unlike other bets these will remain live beyond 90 minutes. It also gives us an extra chance of a winner on the basis of a brilliant defensive performance without the need for a goal.
Score prediction: Arsenal 1-0 Manchester City
Jimmy 'The Punt' Cantrill
Despite being signed as the ‘number 1’ JAMES TRAFFORD has had to play second fiddle following the arrival of GIANLUIGI DONNARUMMA, though he should continue in goal having taken over the mantle of cup keeper from Stefan Ortega.
The thinking for this game is simple and follows a similar thread to the one Joe and Jake highlighted.
Everything points towards this being a low goals, fine-margin affair so combining MANCHESTER CITY TO WIN with their keeper TO BE CARDED is the way I am going to play it.
The referee is obviously important and I think Peter Banks is a good appointment.
He has carded five keepers in 24 appearances this season, two of which have come in his last six appearances and two of those cards have gone the way of City’s number one.
Trafford isn’t guaranteed to start and he hasn’t picked up a booking all season but last term he was cautioned eight times en route to promotion with Burnley.
It would be better were Donnarumma to start because he has eight cards this season and two were given to him by Sunday’s referee. Without the luxury of team news though, I’ll be covering both keepers just in case and waiting for the XI to be announced.
If you've backed with a firm who automatically voids the bet and refunds your stake then all good. If not then make sure to cash-out the now redundant selection.
I’m pretty confident that if given the opportunity, Trafford or Donnarumma will pull out all the stops to run down the clock. It's just a question of if the Cityzens can actually win.
So rather than hang my hat completely on it I'll also cover ARSENAL TO WIN with their keeper TO BE CARDED too - KEPA and DAVID RAYA being the duo we're targeting.
The last two teams to win the Carabao Cup final in 90 minutes have seen their keeper booked, so backing the Gunners duo makes sense. Kepa has played every tie in this competition so far but it would be no shock should Arteta switch to his number one for a final.
Same protocol for cashing out before kick-off on whoever doesn't start.
Score prediction: Arsenal 0-1 Manchester City
Tom Carnduff
I'm conscious that you'll have read plenty and been advised many picks by the time you reach this part of the article, so I'll just get on with it.
Most bookmakers float around that 8/5 mark for OVER 5.5 SECOND-HALF CORNERS in this which is worth consideration for one major reason - game state.
There's a belief that it will be close and you're likely to get a somewhat scrappy start. After all, this is two sides used to operating at the top level and you've not got some plucky outsider trying to build early momentum.
Last season's final delivered six corners in the second-half. Four came the season before (compared to one in the first-half). The 2023 edition had nine. There's usually some incentive for one of the teams to try and find a way back in.
Arsenal took six themselves when searching for an equaliser in the previous Premier League meeting between the pair. City hitting the same post-break marker as they tried to find a way back into a game in September 2024.
A goal in the first 45 would be ideal for this. Even if there isn't, you imagine neither side will fancy extra-time given the already-hectic schedules.
Score prediction: Arsenal 2-0 Manchester City
Odds correct at 14:20 GMT (20/03/26)
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