Russia’s war in Ukraine resulted in a massive exodus of foreign players from the Ukrainian Premier League.
This meant that Shakhtar Donetsk were forced to let go of their foreign stars and rebuild their squad using local talent.
Thankfully they could rely on their renowned academy - where Mykhaylo Mudryk was waiting for his opportunity. Mudryk’s talent meant that there was an inevitability about him being successful, but these off-field matters greatly accelerated his rise.
Starting with his breakout 2021/22 campaign, Mudryk set the league alight as a constant goalscoring threat and chance-creating machine.
Detractors of the Ukrainian Premier League should look at his performances in the Champions League for Shakhtar, where he scored 3 and set up 2 more during the 2022/23 campaign and came onto the radar of top European clubs.
After a big-money move to Chelsea, those abilities were on full display in a scintillating debut off the bench against Liverpool. But despite some other glimpses of his talent, the 22-year-old has not had the impact that most expected.
To be fair to Mudryk, he has played under four different managers in his nine months at the club. The high player turnover at Stamford Bridge since Todd Boehly took over has also been unprecedented.
The club is having a disappointing period, and Mudryk is certainly not the only player struggling to make an impact.
Mudryk transfer value - then and now
According to our player valuation model, Mudryk has a current Expected Transfer Value (xTV) of €37.3 million.
By tracking the historical development of his value, we can see that he was worth only €200,000 three short years ago. His excellent performances led to a spike in his value, but at the time of his transfer to Chelsea his xTV was still only €30 million.
Given that he had played only about 2000 minutes of senior league football, €30 million could be seen as a reasonable price to pay for someone with his enormous talent and future potential - especially in the current market.
But Shakhtar took full advantage of a prolonged and often dramatic transfer battle between Chelsea and London rivals Arsenal, that saw the winger's transfer fee skyrocket to an eye watering €70 million BEFORE add-ons.
Things can change very quickly in football. The same fans who were disappointed at losing out on the player are now mocking their rivals for signing a flop.
A player does not decide their transfer fee, but they are left to deal with the huge pressure of justifying that price tag.
The scrutiny from the fans and media can often get too much to handle, as has been the case here.
Can Mudryk still come good for Chelsea
It is shocking to watch Mudryk play now and think that this is the same player who took apart RB Leipzig in the Champions League last season. His pace and ability to penetrate defences were both exciting and devastating.
But low confidence can make the strengths of a player look like a weakness, and every aspect of his game has taken a hit since the move to west London.
So what are his strengths? Mudryk is an explosive wing forward who can also be the creator - making him a very complete modern wide player. His two-footedness allows him to go both ways, which is a nightmare for defenders.
Looking at the data from his Champions League campaign last season, Mudryk’s 0.74 goal contributions per90 put him amongst the top 5% of players in Europe’s premier club competition, albeit based on a six-match sample size.
Playing for a relatively weaker Shakhtar side meant that opportunities would be limited, but he outperformed both his xG and xA numbers by some margin - displaying his ability to single handedly impact a game.
Mykhaylo Mudryk vs RB Leipzig
— Football Talent Scout - Jacek Kulig (@FTalentScout) September 6, 2022
58' assist 🅰️
76' goal ⚽️
85' assist 🅰️
21 years of age. The Ukrainian Neymar on fire! 🇺🇦🔥 pic.twitter.com/YwzIqXO471
Mudryk also stood out in terms of his progressive carries, take-ons, crossing and his ability to get his shots on target. This was the reason some of the biggest clubs in the world were scrambling for his signature.
But it is important for Mudryk to be played in a system where he has players overlapping on the left. This allows him to be unpredictable and cut inside into the half spaces to escape being tightly marked on the wing. But he has just not played enough minutes at Chelsea with an offensive full-back like Ben Chilwell behind him.
Injury to Christopher Nkunku has also been a blow. The French striker fits the profile of a false 9 who has both the creativity and vision to unlock Mudryk’s potential.
Last season was a write-off for the Blues, and was the perfect moment to bed in the Ukrainian International by giving him sufficient games. But the strategy of signing high-potential young players, and not offering them the time and patience to reach their ceiling, has been strange.
Mudryk needs time to settle, and play regular minutes in a stable environment before he can be fully judged.
It will be interesting to see if Mauricio Pochettino can now make this happen.
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