Denmark v England betting tips: Free Nations League tips, prediction, stats & latest odds

Recommended bets

1pt Under 2.5 goals at evens

1pt England clean sheet at 9/4

For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record

Denmark v England

• 7.45pm BST kick-off on Sky Sports
• Match Odds: Home 12/5 | Draw 12/5 | Away 21/20

It’s unusual for me to draw focus towards my own losing tips, however I am making an exception because I am still reeling with frustration from England’s bizarre, incident-packed win in Iceland on Saturday.

Despite the lack of value in both under and over goals, most had backed Gareth Southgate’s team to score plenty in Reykjavik. I avoided that market entirely because of the unusual circumstances we’re in, which has afforded international teams very limited preparation time. So a 1-0, last-minute win should at least have provided me with some solace; not the case.

The ruling out of Harry Kane’s perfectly legitimate early goal completely altered the flow of the match as the Three Lions quickly became edgy and frustrated - more importantly it scuppered England to lead after 15 minutes, was a killer for England/England half-time/full-time and don't get me started on Kane brace.

Now I'm not just mentioning all of that to get off my chest - honestly - as it's important context for part two of England’s Nations League double-header, which sees them travel to Denmark on Tuesday.

If Southgate's men struggled to cut through Iceland, it’s going to be even harder when they face a significant step up in quality - the Danes' 2-0 home defeat by Belgium on Saturday was their first in 27 competitive fixtures.

The England boss is expected to make wholesale changes, something made more difficult by the news that Mason Greenwood and Phil Foden were sent home for a Covid-19 protocol breach.

Southgate's counterpart Kasper Hjulmand has hinted that he'll do similar, which rarely results in a fluid, attacking contest, full of goals. And as a general rule, Denmark matches don't have that anyway.

Saturday's loss to Belgium was Hjulmand’s first match in charge having replaced Age Hareide, who is a big act to follow having lost only three of his 42 games.

That success was built on a strong defence, with Denmark conceding one goal or fewer on 37 occasions, including all of his final eight matches at the helm. That is an 88% hit rate.

Another consistent outcome is under 2.5 total goals.

In their past 22 competitive fixtures, it has happened 15 times - but here’s the extra kicker. Of the seven occasions it hasn’t, there were two matches against Gibraltar, one against Armenia and one against Georgia. So really, we’re looking at more like 15 from 18 – Switzerland, Wales and the Republic of Ireland managed to buck the trend, if you’re wondering.

Whatever way you look at it, there are not usually many goals in matches involving Denmark, which makes under 2.5 goals at evens a terrific bet. I would even be tempted to go for under 1.5 goals at 3/1.

England to keep a clean sheet at 9/4 is another good price that I'll be taking.

On the face of it, it was surprising to see Denmark shaded possession against Belgium, but on closer inspection it made more sense given Hjulmand's philosophy of high pressing. His side also bettered their opponents in recoveries, completed passes, and tackles won.

While it did work in largely nullifying the Belgians' attacking threat, the first goal came from a set-piece and the second was scored late, Denmark struggled to create chances themselves, managing just a solitary shot on target.

England have kept four clean sheets in a row and six in their last eight matches. Moreover, Southgate has said he plans on reverting to a back three for the trip to Copenhagen, a formation which was the backbone of his team's unlikely run to the World Cup semi-finals in 2018.

In 13 matches playing that way in the build-up and immediate aftermath of the World Cup, only three times did England concede more than once in a game - Belgium, Spain and Croatia being the sides to manage it.

You can, of course, get a better price by tagging on another Three Lions victory - England win to nil is there at 11/4 - but there is too much uncertainty ahead of this fixture for me to be confident backing Southgate's side, so it doesn't quite make the staking plan.

While I do think they'll eek out victory, it's no surprise to see multiple bookies having all three outcomes priced at odds-against.

If you're desperate to back them to win, 1-0 is widely available at 7/1 or greater and there are prices hovering around 10/1 for 2-0 which quite frankly has me very tempted to back in small stakes with the possibility of a cash-out.

Score prediction: Denmark 0-1 England (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)

Best bets

• Under 2.5 goals at evens
• England clean sheet at 9/4

Odds correct as of 1500 BST on 07/09/20

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