- Tom Carnduff's Fussball am Freitag 25/26: Staked: 64.5pts | Returned: 80.72pts | P/L: +16.22pts | ROI: 25%
- Tom Carnduff's Fussball am Freitag 26/27: Staked: 19.5pts | Returned: 22.6pts | P/L: +3.1pts | ROI: 16%
Football betting tips: Bundesliga
1.5pts Kacper Potulski to score anytime at 14/1 (Sky Bet)
0.5pt Potulski to score first at 33/1 (General)
Ah, what an idiot I was last week.
Hold back your 'what do you mean just last week?' style jokes as well. Having spent part of the column outlining why it's a good time to play Stuttgart given their tight turnaround from a European contest, I opted against taking the away win due to how untrustworthy Borussia Mönchengladbach have been so far.
Gladbach won the game 3-2 having been as big as 7/1 in places, with a general price of 6/1 on offer. Instead, we fell one corner short on the 7/4 shot advised.
Like any good football manager, I'll point to a "we take the positives and we move on" style approach (I'm fairly sure Graham Potter used to say that all the time when his Brighton side had put up 1039.34 xG in a game and not won) as we look ahead to this Friday's game.
And look, I'm not expecting you to be rushing to the TV to get this on. Elversberg vs Mainz, on the surface, is a curious pick for what is an international audience in this slot but the hosts are a fascinating story as they continue to punch above their weight in the top-flight.
They're a club from Spiesen-Elversberg, a town boasting a population of around 13,000 people, and their home holds just slightly above that having needed an expansion from 10,000 following promotion.
It's very Bournemouth-esque, although the coastal town has a population of near 200,000. It's a club which shouldn't be equipped for the Bundesliga and yet performances on the pitch have suggested otherwise.
They've beaten Leverkusen, while being on the right side of 4-3 thrillers against Augsburg and Mönchengladbach. Bayern Munich needed a late-ish winner to grab all three points but they've drawn away at the giants of Schalke. The eighth place they occupy in the Bundesliga table is no fluke.
Elversberg vs Mainz
- Kick-off: Friday, 19:30 GMT
- TV: BBC iPlayer, Bundesliga YouTube
- Live odds, form and stats
Your attention may well be drawn to their 2/1 price for success on Friday night and with good reason. Mainz's season has quite literally been win-loss-win though and away from home, it's three wins from three.
They've also struck five in victory at Hamburg and four against Mönchengladbach. Elversberg have plenty of reasons to be confident but then so too do their opponents.
I'm siding with another set-piece mismatch in this game though - it's been a particular weakness of the hosts so far. Against a physically and aerially-dominant Mainz outfit it should cause problems.
Only two sides have allowed more expected goals (xG) from corners and free-kicks in the Bundesliga this season, while Mainz are comfortably top for chances created from the same situations.
KACPER POTULSKI is the player to call out here. The Poland international should continue as part of Mainz's back three and has enjoyed opportunities to strike so far. He's 14/1 to SCORE ANYTIME (10/1 and above also fine) with 33s available that he SCORES FIRST.
He's returned at least one shot in four of his six league outings so far. What's encouraging is that two came in the away win over Mönchengladbach who are one of the two teams mentioned with a worse xGA from set-pieces than Elversberg.
Potulski started to get first team opportunities following Urs Fischer's arrival as head coach in December. He also struck in just his second appearance as they drew with Bayern at the Allianz.
The defender takes a central position from corners which puts him in a good spot to strike, be it directly as the first header or from a flick-on closer to the taker. You can see the consistency in the area from the above shot maps.
Both of Leipzig's centre-backs had a shot in their 4-0 win over Elversberg last week. Augsburg's three centre-backs combined for a staggering seven (Juma Bah taking four of those in just 45 minutes). Go back to the Union Berlin game and the defensive pair had three. This has been a consistent issue for a number of weeks now.
As you'd expect, the price on Potulski to see a shot in this game is short - a best price of 4/7 is on offer - and 13/8 marks the general price for two or more.
While I'd usually go down the shots route for centre-backs, the price simply isn't there on this one. However, given the various factors involved, the goalscorer price certainly looks generous.
Odds correct at 13:25 GMT (29/10/26)
More from Sporting Life
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.
