Bundesliga tips, best bets, predictions and previews: Matchday 25 picks
Jake Osgathorpe steps into the Bundesliga tipping seat, and after landing two winners from two last time, he selects bets bets from this weekend's action.
Football betting tips: Bundesliga
2pts Under 2.5 Goals in Augsburg v Schalke at 22/25 (Unibet)
1.5pts Mainz to beat Freiburg at 6/5 (Unibet)
1pt Thomas Muller to score anytime in Leverkusen v Bayern at 49/20 (Unibet)
Mainz v Freiburg
- Kick-off time: 18:30 GMT, Sunday
- TV channel: Sky Sports Football
- Mainz 11/10 | Draw 23/10 | Freiburg 23/10
Mainz are on a roll right now, especially at home.
Die Nullfünfer have won five of their last seven Bundesliga games, and four straight at home, with performances at the MEWA Arena impressive.
Across their four-match winning streak in front of their own fans they have averaged 2.18 xGF and 0.97 xGA per game, and while they have faced a kind schedule, it is worth noting that fifth-placed Freiburg haven't travelled well of late.
SCF have won just one of their last five away games, losing three and conceding a huge 14 goals. Across that period they have averaged 0.72 xGF and 2.11 xGA per game, struggling at both ends of the pitch.
Over the course of the season, they have posted a negative xG process when travelling (1.04 xGF, 1.56 xGA per game) and will come into this tough away game having played Juventus on Thursday, so a MAINZ WIN looks a solid proposition.
Mainz really do look to have turned a corner after a slow start to the campaign, and are definitely a team to keep onside when playing host over the next few weeks.
Score prediction: Mainz 2-1 Freiburg (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)
Augsburg v Schalke
- Kick-off time: 14:30 GMT, Saturday
- Augsburg 5/4 | Draw 23/10 | Schalke 2/1
It's not usually wise to oppose goals in the Bundesliga, but we may have an exception on Saturday when Augsburg host Schalke.
Both sides were involved in high-scoring affairs last weekend, Augsburg losing 5-3 at Bayern and Schalke drawing 2-2 with Dortmund, but the underlying data suggests UNDER 2.5 GOALS is the way to go when the pair meet.
Since the restart, Augsburg have played host four times and unders has landed in three; the data highlights just how few chances have been witnessed at the WWK Arena.
FCA have averaged just 0.89 xGF and 0.74 xGA per game in those four home contests, and have played sides much stronger in attack than Schalke - Gladbach, Leverkusen, Hoffenheim and Werder Bremen.
Visitors Schalke are on a seven-game unbeaten run, with five of those seven going under 2.5 goals, and again, that isn't a surprise given the underlying data Die Knappen have put up.
Across those seven matches they have averaged 1.10 xGF and 1.15 xGA per game.
If ever there was a game to oppose goals at a backable price in the Bundesliga, it's this one.
Score prediction: Augsburg 1-1 Schalke (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Bayer Leverkusen v Bayern Munich
- Kick-off time: 16:30 GMT, Sunday
- TV channel: Sky Sports Football
- Leverkusen 17/4 | Draw 7/2 | Bayern 1/2
Ninth-placed Bayer Leverkusen welcome champions and league leaders Bayern Munich on Sunday, and I fully expect the visitors to win this game.
They have looked shaky at the back of late, but going forward they are creating plenty, netting 19 times in their last six Bundesliga outings and generating 2.34 xGF per game.
Leverkusen have played host four times post-World Cup, losing two and shipping six times, so they are a vulnerable defence. They also have the added hindrance of a midweek away game in Europe - playing in Hungary on Thursday.
A Bayern win and plenty of goals seems likely, but who will score them? THOMAS MULLER looks overpriced to SCORE ANYTIME.
There is always a small risk of Pep Guardiola-like rotation from Julian Nagelsmann, which explains why Muller has played only 450 league minutes since the restart, but when he is on the pitch, the German gets into scoring positions regularly.
In fact, since the Bundesliga restarted, only RB Leipzig's Andre Silva (0.67) and Bayern team-mate Eric Choupo-Moting (0.48) have averaged more non-penalty xG/95 than Muller (0.45).
So, with little discrepancy in underlying data between Choupo-Moting and Muller, it's pleasantly surprising to see a big difference in price, with the former at 13/10 and the latter at 49/20.
Muller has only taken 13 shots in his 450 minutes on the pitch, with his xG per shot at 0.17 - impressively high.
When he does get a chance, it tends to be a high-value one.
Score prediction: Bayer Leverkusen 1-3 Bayern Munich (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)
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