Jake Osgathorpe is on hand to pick out the best bets for Matchday 21 of the Bundesliga season, with a selection on both Saturday and Sunday.
Football betting tips: Bundesliga
1.5pts Randal Kolo Muani to score anytime in Frankfurt v Werder Bremen at 29/20 (Unibet)
1pts Marco Reus to score anytime in Dortmund v Hertha Berlin at 43/20 (BetUK)
Dortmund v Hertha Berlin
- Kick-off time: 16:30 GMT, Sunday
- TV channel: Sky Sports Football
- Dortmund 2/7 | Draw 19/4 | Hertha Berlin 17/2
Dortmund are flying currently. They have won all six of their matches across all competitions since the restart, netting 16 times and conceding just five.
Edin Terzić's side are just three points behind leaders Bayern Munich heading into the weekend, and welcome Hertha Berlin to Signal Iduna Park, where they have been incredibly strong this season.
They have won seven of nine in front of their own fans, losing just once, and have averaged 2.03 xGF and 0.85 xGA per game. BVB will create chances here then, especially against a Hertha Berlin side fighting for their lives.
The side from the capital have lost seven of nine on the road, shipping 1.89 goals per game on their travels, so the hosts should have plenty of opportunities here.
MARCO REUS has returned from injury in the last few weeks, and he looks sharp, sharp enough for me to want to back him to SCORE ANYTIME here.
The German has started Dortmund's last two games in an advanced '10' position, and has been on the end of a few chances.
He has taken five shots in two games against Freiburg and Werder Bremen, racking up 0.62 and 0.30 xG respectively in those match-ups.
All of those attempts have come from inside the 18-yard-box, which is a huge plus for this bet as it shows he is getting into threatening positions, and now BVB play with an out-and-out striker - be it Sebastien Haller or Youssoufa Moukoko - Reus has a foil to play off.
The club captain was an unused substitute in the Champions League in midweek, so will surely get the nod from the start here.
Score prediction: Dortmund 2-0 Hertha Berlin (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Odds correct at 1545 GMT (17/02/23)
Frankfurt v Werder Bremen
- Kick-off time: 17:30 GMT, Saturday
- TV channel: Sky Sports Football
- Frankfurt 11/20 | Draw 16/5 | Werder Bremen 4/1
Frankfurt are right in the hunt for a European place this season, sitting sixth after 20 games, and that makes me think they will go strong here even with a Champions League game upcoming in midweek.
That wasn't the case last season, as they prioritised the Europa League over the Bundesliga - which worked given they went on to win the tournament - but Die Adler didn't get off to anywhere near as good a start as they have this season, so I expect them to juggle both.
They were poor last weekend against FC Köln, but have impressed since the restart, winning both home games 3-0 against bottom-half teams, while drawing away at both Freiburg and Bayern Munich, who are both in the top four.
At home they have averaged 1.90 xGF per game this season, and up against a poor travelling Werder side, they can rack up the goals and a win here.
With the price about the hosts short though, we pivot to the goalscorer markets, where RANDAL KOLO MUANI TO SCORE ANYTIME appeals.
Only FC Köln's Ellyes Skhiri has scored more goals than Muani since the restart, with his xG/95 average of 0.46 post-World Cup highlighting his propensity to sniff out good scoring chances.
Werder are shipping an average of 2.05 xGA per game when travelling, have been hit for seven by FC Köln and six by Bayern Munich in their last three away games and across their last four road games have conceded 15 times while allowing a whopping 3.15 xGA per game!
Frankfurt, and Muani should get chances in this one.
Score prediction: Frankfurt 3-1 Werder Bremen (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Odds correct at 1320 GMT (17/02/23)
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